U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fell
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- New claims filed fell to 215,000 in the week of May 18 from 223,000 the previous week.
- Recent reading is about the same as the 52-week average prior to the pandemic, indicating that the labor market is still rather tight.
- Continuing claims rose slightly but have been little changed throughout most of 2024.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were a seasonally adjusted 215,000 in the week ended May 18, down from 223,000 the week before (revised up slightly from 222,000 previously reported). The most recent reading was almost the same as the weekly average of 216,000 in the 52 weeks prior to the pandemic, indicating that the labor market is currently about as tight as it was then. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a decline to 220,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 219,750 from an upwardly revised 218,000 in the previous week.
Insured unemployment, that is, the total number of continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance, was 1.794 million in the week ended May 11, up from 1.786 million in the prior week (revised down from 1.794 million reported previously). The four-week moving average edged up to 1.782 million from 1.777 million previously.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, insured unemployment as a percent of covered employment, was still 1.2% in the May 11 week. This rate has been at this level in each week since March 4, 2023, or about 14 months.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely by individual states and territories. In the week ended May 4, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.34%), California (2.19%), Rhode Island (1.69%), Massachusetts (1.65%) and Washington (1.64%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Kansas (0.34%), Florida (0.37%), Kentucky (0.39%) and North Carolina (0.41%). Rates in other prominent states include New York (1.62%), Illinois (1.55%), Pennsylvania (1.43%), Texas (1.01%), Michigan (0.96%) and Ohio (0.72%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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