U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fell Again in Week of October 19
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Claims totaled 227,000, down a more-than-expected 15,000 from the previous week.
- Decline reflected some normalization after the hurricane-induced surge in early October.
- Continuing claims (reported with a one-week lag) rose sharply.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 15,000 to 227,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended October 19, from 242,000 in the previous week, revised up 1,000 from the initially reported 241,000 level. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 244,000 in the October 19 week. Press reports indicate that the 35,000 jump to 260,000 in the October 5 week was related to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Over the following two weeks, weekly claims have fallen by 33,000 to a level just above the one that existed prior to the hurricane. Still, the effects of both Hurricane Helene and Milton will likely keep weekly claims data volatile in the coming weeks. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 238,500 in the week ended October 19, up from 236,500 the week before.
In the week ended October 12, the total number unemployment benefit recipients—also known as insured unemployment—was 1.897 million, up 28,000 from 1.869 million in the week of October 5, which was revised up slightly from 1.867 million. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.861 million, up from 1.843 million in the prior week.
Also, in the week ended October 12, the insured unemployment rate edged up from 1.2% to 1.3%, its first weekly change since it rose to 1.2% in the week ended March 11, 2023. This is the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment.
Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended October 5, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.17%), California (1.92%), Washington (1.78%), Nevada (1.59%) and Rhode Island (1.58%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.23%), North Dakota (0.34%), Florida (0.34%), Virginia (0.41%) and Alabama (0.43%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.48%), Illinois (1.40%), Pennsylvania (1.33%) and Texas (1.00%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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