U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Unexpectedly Fell
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Initial claims fell to 202,000 in the week ended December 9.
- Continuing claims rose, remaining a modest uptrend.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell 19,000 to 202,000 in the week ended December 9. The 220,000 figure for the week ended December 2 was revised up 1,000 to 221,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 223,000 in the December 9 week. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 213,250 from 221000 in the prior week.
Insured unemployment, also known as “continued weeks claimed” or “continuing claims,” was 1.876 million in the week ended December 2, up 20,000 from 1.856 million in the previous week (revised down slightly from 1.861 million). Continuing claims have been trending up since early September. The increase in continued weeks claimed produced a rebound in the insured unemployment rate, raising it back to 1.3% from 1.2% in the prior week. This figure is the number of continuing claims as a percentage of covered employment.
The insured unemployment rates vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended November 25, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.40%), California (2.30%), Alaska (2.20%), Puerto Rico and Washington (each 1.90%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota and Virginia (each 0.30%) and in Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, and Tennessee (each 0.40%). Rates in other large states include Ohio (0.80%), Texas (1.10%), Illinois (1.60%), Pennsylvania (1.70%) and New York (1.80%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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