U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Claims fall to lowest level in four weeks.
- Continuing claims drop sharply to February low.
- Insured unemployment rate steady & low for 9th straight week.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 239,000 during the week ended June 24 from 265,000 in the prior week, revised from 264,000 reported initially. Initial claims ranged between 262,000 and 265,000 during the first three weeks of June. These figures were the highest since October 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 260,000 initial claims in the latest week.
The four-week moving average of initial claims edged up to 257,500 last week from 256,000 in the prior week. This was the highest level since the second week of November 2021.
The number of continued weeks claimed, or “insured unemployment,” fell to 1.742 million in the week ended June 17, down from a little-revised 1.761 million in the prior week. It was the lowest level since the third week of February. The four-week moving average of continued weeks claimed declined to 1.758 million from 1.771 million in the prior week. The latest level remained the lowest since the first week of March, down from a high of 1.833 million in the second week of April.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, continued claims as a percent of covered employment, held at 1.2%. This rate has been between 1.2% and 1.3% since late-January and compares with 0.9% in September and early-October of last year.
In the week ended June 10, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs rose to 1.698 million (29.2% y/y), the highest level in seven weeks. The recent high was 2.000 million in late February. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. In the week ended June 10, the highest insured rates of unemployment were in California (2.27%), New Jersey (2.09%), Massachusetts (1.79%), New York (1.60%) and Oregon (1.56%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.20%), Virginia (0.35%), North Dakota (0.38%), New Hampshire (0.38%) & Kansas (0.39%). Rates in other large states include Illinois (1.48%), Pennsylvania (1.47%), Texas (1.13%) and Florida (0.43%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Not Just “Stimulus” Checks: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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