U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease from 3-Month High
Summary
- Initial claims decline by 16,000 in November 26 week.
- Level of continued weeks claimed surged yet again.
- Insured unemployment rate still just above record low.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 225,000 (-6.3% y/y) during the week ended November 26 from 241,000 during the week prior, revised from 240,000. A level of 234,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims of 228,750 compared with 227,000 in the prior week. It was again the highest level since the first week of September and remained above an early-April low of 170,500.
In the week ended November 19, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance increased to 1.608 million (-18.6% y/y) from 1.551 million in the prior week, which was unrevised. The 4-week moving average rose to 1.539 million from 1.509 million in the prior week. It was the highest level since the last week of March.
The insured unemployment rate in the week ended November 19 remained at the 1.1% of the prior week. This is still the highest level since the first week of April and is up from the record low range between 0.9% and 1.0% which had prevailed since mid-April. The series dates back to 1971.
In the week ended November 12, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs rose to 1.368 million (-40.5% y/y) from 1.252 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 5 were in Puerto Rico (2.14%), Alaska (2.01%), New Jersey (1.96%), California (1.79%) and New York (1.41%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota and Virginia (0.20%), Alabama (0.21%), Nebraska (0.28%) and Kansas (0.29%). Other major state rates include Pennsylvania (1.12%), Texas (0.82%) and Illinois (1.14%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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