U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease Modestly in Latest Week
Summary
- Initial claims range-bound after post-COVID downtrend.
- Total insured unemployment, though, rose markedly.
- Insured rate of unemployment stayed at 1.2% for the 11th week.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 228,000, seasonally adjusted, in the latest week, ended July 15; this was down 9,000 from the 237,000 in the week ended July 8, which was unrevised. The four-week average was 237,500, down from 246,750 in the prior week. For the July 15 week, the Action Economic Forecast Survey had expected 242,000 new claims. Initial claims have moved unevenly in recent months, decreasing in recent weeks after rising in early June.
By contrast to the initial claims figures, the number of continued weeks claimed, or “insured unemployment,” rose to 1.754 million in the July 8 week from 1.721 million in the week of July 1; that earlier amount was revised slightly from 1.729 million initially reported. Increases over the last couple of weeks have brought the number of recipients of unemployment compensation back to the amounts of mid-winter.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, continued claims as a percentage of covered employment, held at 1.2%. in the July 8 week. This rate has been at 1.2% for 12 weeks and was no higher than 1.3% for several weeks in March and April. The series low was 0.9% back in July 2022; the series began in 1971. During the recession of 2008-2009, the rate reached a high of 4.9%; during the pandemic period of early 2020, it was far higher, although that was clearly due to a non-economic cause.
In the week ended July 1, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs eased slightly to 1.748 million (+29.2% y/y) from 1.764 million in the June 24 week. The recent high was 2.000 million in the week of February 25. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the discontinued Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states and other specified regions. In the week ended July 1, the highest rates of were in Puerto Rice (2.37%), New Jersey (2.33%), California (2.12%), Rhode Island (2.02%) and Connecticut (2.01%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.20%), Virginia (0.36%), Kansas (0.39%), North Dakota and Kentucky (0.40%). Rates in other large states include New York (1.76%), Pennsylvania (1.62%), Illinois (1.49%), Texas (1.07%), and Florida (0.42%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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