U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hold Steady after Prior Week’s Jump
Summary
- Jobless claims remain at highest since October 2021.
- Continuing claims hold prior week’s modestly smaller amount.
- Insured unemployment rate unchanged, remains low for 7th straight week.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged in the week ended June 10, totaling 262,000 (+20.7% y/y); the June 3 week amount was revised marginally from 261,000 initially reported. These latest two weeks were the highest level of claims since the week of October 30, 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an initial claims amount of 250,000 in the latest week.
The four-week moving average of initial claims was 246,750 last week, up from 237,500 last week, up from 237,500 in the prior week. This was the highest since the week of November 20, 2021.
The number of continued weeks claimed, or “insured unemployment,” was 1.775 million in the week ended June 3, up from 1.755 million in the May 27 week. That earlier week was revised down slightly from 1.757 million previously reported. The four-week moving average of continued weeks claimed declined to 1.778 million from 1.784 million in the prior week. The latest level was again the lowest since the second week of March.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, continued claims as a percent of covered employment, held at 1.2% for a seventh consecutive week. This rate has been between 1.2% and 1.3% since late January and compares with 0.9% in September and early October of last year, which is the all-time low for this measure of unemployment, dating back to 19.
In the week ended May 27, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs was 1.619 million (+26.3% y/y), down from 1.635 million in the prior week. The recent high was 2.000 million in late February. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. In the May 27 week, the highest insured rates of unemployment were in California (2.19%), New Jersey (2.06%), Massachusetts (1.88%), New York (1.57%) and Oregon (1.56%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), North Dakota (0.31%), Virginia (0.34%), New Hampshire (0.37%) and Kansas (0.38%). Rates in other large states include Illinois (1.36%), Pennsylvania (1.29%), Texas (1.02%) and Florida (0.41%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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