U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Turn Up Modestly
Summary
- Initial claims hover just above pre-pandemic amounts.
- Continued weeks claimed edge upward over last several weeks.
- Insured unemployment rate maintains near-record low.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 239,000 (+7.7% y/y) in the week ended April 8 from 228,000 in the week before, which was unrevised. The latest week was somewhat higher than the Action Economics Forecast Survey which expected 231,000 initial claims for the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 240,000 in the April 8 week, up modestly from 237,750 the week before. This is slightly higher than the 215,000 range in early 2020, just before the pandemic struck.
The number of continuing weeks claimed in the week ended April 1 decreased to 1.810 million (+13.8% y/y) from 1.823 million in the prior week, which was also unrevised. The four-week moving average of continuing claims increased to 1.813 million, yet again the highest level since December 2021.
In the week ended April 1, the insured rate of unemployment eased to 1.2% from 1.3% in the prior week, also unrevised. These latest figures represent increases from 0.9% in the first week of October 2022, matching the record low for the series which runs back to 1971.
In the week ended March 25, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1.872 million (+9.5% y/y) versus 1.905 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 25 were in New Jersey (2.57%), California (2.34%), Massachusetts (2.31%), Rhode Island (2.22%), and Minnesota (2.14%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.32%), Kansas (0.38%), Florida (0.41%), Tennessee (0.42%) and North Carolina (0.42%). Other large state rates include Illinois (1.91%), New York (1.85%), Pennsylvania (1.66%) and Texas (0.98%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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