U.S. Job Openings Fall More Than Expected in September
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Openings fell more than 400k to the lowest level since January 2021 with a sizable downward revision to August.
- Layoffs jumped 165k to 1.833 million, the highest level since January 2023.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reported that job openings fell 418,000 (-20.0% y/y) in September to 7.443 million, their lowest level since January 2021. The 8.040 million figure previous reported for August was revised down meaningfully to 7.861 million. The number of job openings have been trending down since early-2022 and the latest reading is well below the recent peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022.
The number of openings still exceeds the number of unemployed but only by 609,000. The ratio of openings to unemployment fell to 1.09. Over the past four months this ratio has been below the 1.2 readings that existed prior to the pandemic, pointing to a slightly softer labor market now than just before the pandemic. The job openings rate also fell in September—to 4.5%, its lowest level since December 2020, from 4.7% in August. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Private sector openings fell by 286,000 to 6.626 million in September. The private sector job openings rate fell to 4.7% from 4.9%. The decline in private openings in September was led by educational and health services (-175k), trade and transportation (-134k) and leisure and hospitality (-111k). By contrast, openings increased by 93k in financial activities and by 77k in professional and business activities. Government sector openings fell by 132k in September.
Total hiring increased by 123k to 5.558 million in September, its third consecutive monthly increase. Private hiring increased by 144k to 5.211 million. Private hiring gains were rather widespread across major sectors, led by a 50k gain in manufacturing. Private educational and health hiring increased by 43k, its first monthly increase in five months. Government hiring declined 22k in September.
Total job separations rose 28k to 5.196 million in September. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.3%. Private separations rose 43k to 4.890 million. Private separations were relatively widespread, led by a 44k increase in separations in manufacturing, a 35k increase in separations in trade and transportation and a 29k increase in finance. By contrast, separations fell 66k in professional and business services and declined 20k in leisure. Government separations fell 14k in September.
Within separations, quits decreased 107k, their fourth decline in the past five months, with a 118k decline in private quits. Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee and are often viewed as an indicator of workers’ willingness to leave jobs for other opportunities. Private quits are currently on a clear downtrend, pointing to an ongoing softening of labor-market conditions. Layoffs increased 165k in September, their largest monthly increase since March 2023, with a 186k increase in private sector layoffs. Before revisions, layoffs were relatively flat. Now, however, upon revision, layoffs have been on a modest uptrend for past three months but are still lower than they were in early 2023. Private sector layoffs were led by a 55k increase in manufacturing layoffs, a 50k increase in layoffs in leisure and hospitality and a 45k increase in layoffs in professional and business services. By contrast, financial activities layoffs fell 16k, their first decline in three months. Government layoffs declined by 20k in September.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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