U.S. Jobless Claims Drop 20,000 in September 16 Week
Summary
- Weekly initial claims are 201,000, the smallest since late January.
- Insured unemployment down in Sept 9 week to their smallest since mid-January.
- Insured unemployment rate maintains 1.1-1.2% amount since mid-April.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 201,000 (+5.2% y/y) in the week ended September 16 from 221,000 the week before, which was revised marginally from its initially reported 220,000. The latest is the smallest weekly amount since 199,000 in the week of January 28. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 225,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average was 217,000 in the September 16 week, down from 224,750 the prior week and the lowest since 213,000 in the four weeks ended February 18. These data are seasonally adjusted and reported by the Department of Labor.
The total number of insured unemployment, also called “continued weeks claimed,” was 1.662 million in the week ended September 9, down from 1.683 million the week before; that earlier number was revised slightly from 1.688 million. The four-week moving average was 1.687 million in the September 9 week, down from 1.696 million the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment in the September 9 week was 1.1%, its third consecutive week at that rate. This is the ratio of insured unemployment to the total of covered employment; it has hovered between 1.1% and 1.2% since mid-April, when it was 1.3%. The series dates back to 1971 and the lowest was 0.9% for several weeks in August and September of 2022.
The total number of insured unemployment in all programs was 1.679 million in the September 2 week, down noticeably from 1.772 million the week before and 1.815 million the week before that – August 19. This total is not seasonally adjusted. Its lowest was 1.222 million the week of October 8, 2022. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Claims in the discontinued Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured unemployment rates in regular programs vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended September 2, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.46%), Hawaii (2.33%), California (2.04%), Puerto Rico (1.87%) and New York (1.86%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.17%), North Dakota (0.28%), Kentucky and Kansas (0.33% each), and Virgina (0.35%). Rates in other large states include Massachusetts (1.73%), Pennsylvania (1.46%), Illinois (1.39%), Texas (0.99%) and Florida (0.45%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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