U.S. Jobless Claims Steady in Early October at 209,000
Summary
- Continuing jobless claims rise moderately by 30,000 in late September week.
- Rate remains at 1.1% for a 6th consecutive week.
- Hawaii still has highest state rate; New Jersey and California are next highest.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 209,000 in the week ended October 7 (+1.5% y/y), unchanged from the prior week, which was revised from 207,000 initially reported. The four-week moving average was 206,250 in the October 7 week, down from the prior week’s 209,250. In the October 7 week, the Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for 211,000.
The total number of insured unemployment, also known as “continued weeks claimed” or “continuing claims,” was 1.702 million in the September 30 week (+28.5% y/y), up from 1.672 million in the September 23 week. The four-week moving average was 1.674 million in the September 30 week, up from 1.672 million the week before. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Claims in the discontinued Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of recipients in the latest available week as a percentage of covered employment, still held at 1.1%, a sixth consecutive week. This latest rate thus extends the tight range for the insured unemployment rate, 1.0%-1.3%, which has prevailed throughout 2023. The all-time low for this rate was 0.9%, which was recorded in August, September and early October of last year. These data run back to 1971.
The insured unemployment rates in regular programs vary widely across the individual states and territories. In the week ended September 23, the highest rates were in Hawaii (2.41%), New Jersey (2.11%), California (2.08%), Puerto Rico (1.87%) and Massachusetts (1.62%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.17%), North Dakota (0.27%), Kentucky and Kansas (both 0.33%) and Virginia (0.34%). Other large state rates include New York (1.59%), Pennsylvania (1.37%), Texas (1.03%) and Florida (0.44%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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