U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Continued Downtrend in November
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Openings continued their downtrend but fell only 62,000 in November.
- Hires fell 363,000, the largest monthly decline since July 2020.
- Total separations fell 292,000 with quits down 157,000.
The U.S. labor market conditions continued to soften slightly in November with job openings falling marginally while hiring weakened markedly. Job openings edged down 0.7% m/m (-18.2% y/y) to 8.790 million in November following a 5.3% m/m drop to 8.852 million in October (previously reported as 8.733 million). The November level was the lowest level of openings since March 2021 according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of openings has been trending down since its peak of 12.027 million in March 2022, reflecting ongoing, though gradual, softening in the labor market. The excess of openings over the number unemployed increased to 2.499 million in November from 2.346 million in October but remains on a downtrend and well below the peak of 6.055 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.3%, its lowest reading since February 2021. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Private sector openings edged down 0.4% m/m (-19.2% y/y) to 7.817 million after a 6.4% monthly drop in October. The private job openings rate was unchanged at 5.5%, the lowest reading since February 2021. The decline in private openings in November was led by a 7.8% m/m drop in leisure and hospitality and a 2.5%m/m decline in manufacturing. By contrast, openings in construction jumped 10.3% m/m while openings in retail trade rose 7.6% m/m. Government job openings fell 3.5% m/m in November, due entirely to a decline in federal government openings.
Total hiring fell 6.2% m/m (-12.6% y/y) to 5.465 million in November, the lowest level since April 2020, following a 1.3% monthly decline in October. The hiring rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest since April 2020, from 3.7% in October. Private sector hiring fell 6.4% m/m (-12.5% y/y) on top of a 1.6% monthly decline in October. Hiring fell in November in each major sector. Sectors experiencing the largest declines were professional and business services (-14.2% m/m), trade, transportation and utilities (-7.0% m/m), and leisure and hospitality (-6.9% m/m). The private sector hiring rate fell 0.3%-point to 3.8% in November, its lowest since April 2020. Government hiring fell 3.4% m/m in November.
Total separations fell 5.2% m/m (-10.2% y/y) to 5.340 million in November following a 0.7% monthly increase in October. The separation rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since September 2016, from 3.6% in October. The fall reflected a 4.3% m/m decline in quits, a 7.1% m/m drop in layoffs and a 5.3% monthly fall in other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, quits can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. By contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Private quits are now exhibiting a clear downtrend while private layoffs and discharges appear to be on a slight uptrend. Both provide some indication of slightly softer labor-market conditions on a trend basis.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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