U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Increase in October While Hiring Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Openings reverse most of September’s falloff, but downward trend remains in place.
- Hiring decline reverses most of increase over previous three months.
- Job separations rate levels off near four-year low, but private sector layoffs drop.
Job openings increased 372,000 (-10.8% y/y) during October to 7.744 million after falling 489,000 in September, revised from a 418,000 decline, and rising 150,000 in August according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings has been trending downward since early-2022 and the latest reading stands well below the peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate improved to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. It remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Private sector openings surged 367,000 in October (-11.0% y/y) to 6.868 million after falling 411,000 in September. The private sector job openings rate rose to 4.8% from 4.6% in September. It is down from 5.4% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022. The level of leisure & hospitality openings rose 13.1% (-7.2% y/y) while information openings surged 71.9% (84.1% y/y). Private educational & health service openings edged 0.5% higher (-16.7% y/y) and financial sector openings improved 4.0% (8.8% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities openings declined 2.7% (-26.8% y/y) while openings in professional & business services rose 14.5% (4.1% y/y). Manufacturing job openings weakened 2.7% (-19.3% y/y) while construction openings fell 3.5% (-39.7% y/y). Mining & logging openings rose 7.7% (16.7% y/y). Government sector openings improved 0.6% (-9.4% y/y).
Private sector hiring declined 5.2% in October (-8.9% y/y) to 4.947 million after rising 3.0% in September. The private sector hiring rate fell to 3.6% and compared to 4.1% twelve months earlier. It has been trending lower from its 7.1% high in May 2020. Leisure and hospitality hiring fell 11.9% in October (-19.0% y/y). Financial sector hiring fell 12.2% (-9.2% y/y) and the number of professional & business services jobs weakened 7.4% (-11.8% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities hiring improved 2.6% (-4.4% y/y) while private educational & health services jobs eased 0.3% (-2.8% y/y). Information sector hiring weakened 11.4% (+40.0% y/y). Construction sector hiring dropped 12.5% (-23.1% y/y) and factory sector hiring fell 5.9% (-10.6% y/y). Government hiring rose 1.4% (-4.9% y/y) in October, including a 2.7% rise (-1.7% y/y) in the number of state & local jobs.
Total job separations rose 1.3% (-6.6% y/y) to 5.261 million in October after rising 0.5% in September. The separation rate was 3.3% for the third straight month, down from 3.6% twelve months earlier. Private sector separations rose 1.3% (-7.1% y/y) after a 0.8% September increase. Manufacturing sector separations were off 8.6% (-8.1% y/y) while construction sector separations dropped 16.8% (-26.1% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities separations rose 6.8% (-5.4% y/y) while leisure & hospitality separations eased 0.1% (-15.0% y/y). Government sector job separations rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y).
Private sector layoffs declined 10.4% to 1.548 million (-1.4% y/y) in October, led by a 39.1% falloff (-41.3% y/y) in the leisure & hospitality sector. Financial sector layoffs declined 1.8% (-9.5% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities layoffs rose 17.0% (27.6% y/y) last month. Government layoffs increased 13.3% and were up 2.4% y/y. The private sector layoff rate overall eased to 1.1% after increasing to 1.3% in September. The government sector layoff rate rose to 0.4%. Private sector quits jumped 7.9% to 3.148 million (-8.8% y/y). Government quits fell 1.1% to 179,000 (-1.1% y/y). The private sector quits rate rose to 2.3% from 2.2% but remained down from a high of 3.3% in April 2022.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
Global
