U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Layoffs Increased in November
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Job openings rose for the second consecutive month with an upward revision to October.
- Increase concentrated in professional and business services.
- Layoffs are on a clear uptrend with another increase in November and an upward revision to October.
Job openings increased 259,000 during November to 8.098 million, the highest level since May, from an upwardly revised 7.839 million in October (previously 7.744 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Notwithstanding the increases in October and November, the number of job openings has been trending downward since early 2022 with the latest reading stands well below the peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022, indicating better balance between demand and supply in the labor market. The job openings rate rose for the second consecutive month, to 4.8% from 4.7% in October and 4.4% in September. It remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Private sector openings rose 256,000 to 7.205 million in November to their highest level since March. The November increase in private openings was more than accounted for by a 273,000 increase in professional and business services openings. Openings in manufacturing fell 56,000, their fourth consecutive monthly decline. The private sector job openings rate rose to 5.0% in November from an upwardly revised 4.9% in October (previously 4.8%) and 4.6% in September. It has fallen from 5.6% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022.
Total hiring continued on its downtrend, falling 125,000 to 5.269 million in November with private hiring declining 114,000. Declines were widespread across industries, led by a 66,000 decline in professional business services and a 39,000 decline in manufacturing. By contrast, hiring increased 74,000 in leisure and hospitality. Government hiring fell 11,000.
Total job separations declined 180,000 to 5.126 million in November, their first monthly decline in three months. Quits fell 218,000; layoffs increased 17,000; and other separations rose 21,000. Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee and are often viewed as an indicator of workers’ willingness to leave jobs for other opportunities. Private quits (-223,000 in November) are currently on a clear downtrend, pointing to an ongoing softening of labor-market conditions. Private layoffs (+19,000 in November due mostly to a 108,000 increase in leisure and hospitality layoffs) are now on a clear uptrend.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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