U.S. New Home Sales Rebound in November Following October’s Plunge
Summary
- November sales +5.9% (+8.7% y/y) to 664,000 vs. -14.8% (-6.8% y/y) to 627,000 in October.
- Sales up m/m and y/y in the Midwest and South but down m/m and y/y in the Northeast and West.
- Median sales price drops to $402,600, the lowest since Feb. ’22; avg. sales price falls to a 3-month-low $484,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale drops to 8.9 mths. from October’s 2-year high.
New single-family home sales rose 5.9% m/m (8.7% y/y) to 664,000 units at an annual rate in November following a 14.8% plunge to 627,000 in October (-17.3%, 610,000 initially) and a 6.5% gain to 736,000 in September (+7.0%, 738,000 previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The November level reading matched the forecast by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. New home sales, while up 27.9% from the 519,000 low in July 2022, had fallen 35.6% from their peak of 1.031 million in October 2020. The rise in November sales accompanied an increase in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 6.81% in November, the highest since July, from 6.43% in October. It had since registered 6.60% in the December 12 week and 6.72% in the December 19 week, according to Freddie Mac.
By region, month-on-month new home sales gained in November in two of four major regions. Sales in the Midwest jumped 17.3% (10.0% y/y) to 88,000 in November, the highest level since June 2021, after a 3.8% decline to 75,000 in October. Sales in the South rebounded 13.9% (13.6% y/y) to 417,000, the third m/m gain in four months, after a 22.5% October slump to 366,000. To the downside, sales in the Northeast plummeted 41.0% (-11.5% y/y) to 23,000 in November, the lowest level since August, reversing a 39.3% advance to 39,000 in October. Sales in the West fell 7.5% (-1.4% y/y) to 136,000, the fourth straight m/m fall to the lowest level since February 2023, on top of a 7.0% October decline to 147,000. Notably, the South continued to post the largest level figure (417,000) for new home sales among the four regions.
The median sales price of a new home fell 5.4% (-6.3% y/y) to $402,600 in November after a 1.8% increase to $425,600 in October, registering the first m/m fall since August and the lowest level since February 2022. The median sales price had fallen 12.5% since its October 2022 peak of $460,300. The average sales price of a new home dropped 7.7% (-0.9% y/y) to $484,800 in November, the lowest level since August, following a 4.9% rise to $525,400 in October. The average price was 10.4% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 2.1% (8.9% y/y) to 490,000 in November, the highest level since December 2007, after a 1.9% increase to 480,000 in October. The latest figure was 5.2% above a high of 466,000 in October 2022. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 8.9 months in November after rising to 9.2 months in October (highest since November 2022). The latest reading, slightly up from 8.8 months in November 2023, remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 2.6 months in November, the highest since March, after slipping to 2.4 months in October. The latest number was up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from 2.7 months in November 2023 and a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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