U.S. New Home Sales Unexpectedly Fell Markedly in November
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales slumped 12.2% m/m against an expectation of a small rise.
- Sales down in the South and the West but up in the Northeast and Midwest.
New single-family home sales slumped 12.2% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in November following an upwardly revised 4.0% monthly decline in October (previously -5.6% m/m). The number of units sold was 590,000, the lowest since November 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 685,000. Sales were below the recent high of 1.029 million in August 2020. New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed.
By region, new home sales were mixed last month. Sales in the Northeast increased 3.1% m/m (+13.8% y/y) after having declined a combined 11.1% in September and October. Sales jumped 25.0% m/m (+52.2% y/y) in the Midwest, more than reversing a 12.5% m/m decline in October. By contrast, sales plunged 20.9% m/m (-8.4% y/y) in the South, the first monthly decline in three months. Sales fell 5.1% m/m (+7.9% y/y) in the West, the third monthly decrease in the past four months.
The median sales price of a new home rose 4.8% m/m (-6.0% y/y) to $434.700 in November, the first monthly increase in three months. The average sales price fell for the third consecutive month, down 1.9% m/m (-7.3% y/y) to $488,900. The sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of new homes on the market increased 2.5% m/m (-0.9% y/y) to 451,000, seasonally adjusted, last month. This was the highest level since December 2022. The seasonally adjusted months’ supply of new homes for sale increased to 9.2 months in November, the highest since November 2022, from 7.9 in October.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.7 last month from 2.4 months in October. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of last year, but down from a recent high of 5.1 months in March 2021.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver’s USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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