U.S. Retail Sales Are Unexpectedly Firm in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Motor vehicle & building material sales strengthen.
- Core goods increase moderates.
- Lower gasoline prices continue to lessen overall gain.
Consumers continued to spend at a moderate pace in May. Retail sales rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% April increase. The May gain exceeded expectations for sales stability in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles edged 0.1% higher (1.0% y/y), as expected, after increasing an unrevised 0.4% in April.
Sales in the retail group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y) in May following a 0.6% gain, revised from 0.7%. Sales fell 0.8% in March, revised from -0.4%.
Last month’s overall sales gain reflected a 2.2% surge (-0.9% y/y) in building materials & garden equipment store sales after they rose 0.5% in April. Also strong was a 1.4% rise (4.4% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases which followed a 0.4% April increase. These gains came after declines exceeding 1.0% in both of the prior two months. The latest increase compared to a 6.5% May decline in unit vehicle sales. Lower gasoline service station sales offset the auto sales increase with a 2.6% decline (-20.5% y/y), marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
Elsewhere, sales gains were moderate. Sales of nonstore retailers improved 0.3% (6.5% y/y) last month following a 1.0% gain. General merchandise store sales rose 0.4% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.9% April increase. Within that category, department store sales improved 0.3% (-3.5% y/y) after falling sharply in each of the prior three months.
Furniture & home furnishing store sales improved 0.4% in May (-6.4% y/y) after falling sharply in each of the prior three months. Electronics and appliance store sales rose 0.2% (-5.0% y/y) following a 1.1% April decline. Easing slightly m/m were apparel sales which were off 0.2% y/y. That followed a 0.1% April improvement. Sporting goods, hobby & book store sales rose 0.3% (1.2% y/y) after holding steady in April.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales held steady (7.8% y/y) after a 0.8% April rise. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.3% last month (3.1% y/y) after easing 0.1% in April.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved 0.4% last month (8.0% y/y) after rising 0.3% in April.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
