U.S. Retail Sales Gain Is Surprisingly Strong in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Surge in core sales is led by nonstore retailers.
- Vehicle sales decline.
- Gasoline sales jump with higher prices.
Retail sales rose 0.7% (4.0% y/y) during March after increasing 0.9% in February, revised from 0.6% and falling 0.9% in January, revised from a 1.1% decline. A 0.4% March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts strengthened 1.1% in March (4.3% y/y) following a 0.6% rise, revised from 0.3% and a 0.6% January decline, revised from a 0.8% shortfall. Nonauto sales had been expected to rise 0.5%. Motor vehicle & parts sales weakened 0.7% in March (+2.8% y/y) after a 2.5% gain as unit motor vehicle sales fell 1.9% last month.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, restaurants and gasoline jumped 1.1% in March (5.2% y/y) after increasing 0.3% in February, revised from no change. Sales eased 0.1% in January, revised from a 0.3% fall.
Sales of nonstore retailers surged 2.7% in March (11.3% y/y) after rising 0.2% in both of the prior two months. General merchandise store sales rose 1.1% (5.7% y/y) following two months of 0.6% increase. Within that grouping., department store sales fell 1.1% (-2.5% y/y) after declining 0.4% in February. Higher prices were behind the 2.1% gain (-0.7% y/y) in gasoline service station sales as they followed a 1.6% rise. Building materials & garden supply store purchases improved 0.7% (-0.6% y/y) after rising 2.3% in February.
Working lower, sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales fell 1.8% in March (-3.9% y/y) after increasing 0.7% in February. Apparel store purchases weakened 1.6% in March (+1.4% y/y) after rising 0.2%, while electronics & appliance store purchases declined 1.2% (-0.6% y/y), reversing a 1.3% February rise. Furniture & home furnishing store sales fell 0.3% (-6.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales improved in the nondiscretionary sales categories. Health & personal care store sales rose 0.4% last month (2.3% y/y) after holding steady in February. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.5% in March (1.4% y/y) after a 0.2% February increase.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved 0.4% last month (6.5% y/y) after a 0.5% February rise.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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