U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in June; Nonauto Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Core spending continues to improve.
- Nonstore sales surge for a second straight month.
- Overall sales improvement held back by lower vehicle and gasoline station sales.
Total retail sales were unchanged (+2.3% y/y) during June after increasing 0.3% in May, revised from 0.1%, and falling an unrevised 0.2% in April according to the Census Bureau. A 0.2% June decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales strengthened 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after they edged 0.1% higher in May, revised from slipping 0.1%, and rising 0.1% in April, also revised from down 0.1%. A 0.1% June increase in nonauto sales had been expected.
Holding back the overall gain in sales last month was a 2.0% decline (-2.2% y/y) in sales of motor vehicles & parts after a 1.0% fall in May and a 1.0% drop in April. The latest decline compares to a 4.5% weakening in unit light vehicle sales last month. Also falling by 3.0% (-0.4% y/y) were gasoline service station sales after a 2.1% May drop.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.9% (4.1% y/y) last month following an unrevised 0.4% May rise and 0.3% April fall, revised from -0.5%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts.
Leading the sales increase last month was a 1.9% jump (8.9% y/y) in nonstore retail sales after they rose 1.1% in May. Building material & garden equipment store sales strengthened 1.4% (-0.9% y/y) after easing 0.7% in May. Furniture & home furnishings store sales improved 0.6% (-4.0% y/y) after a 0.7% rise in May. Sales at electronics & appliance stores increased 0.4% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Clothing & accessory store sales increased 0.6% (4.3% y/y) following a 1.2% May rise and a 2.3% jump in April. General merchandise store sales increased 0.4% (3.3% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. Within that category, department store sale rose 0.4% (1.7% y/y) after holding steady. Miscellaneous store sales improved 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after declining 1.3% in May. Working lower, sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales eased 0.1% (-3.4% y/y) after strengthening 1.7% in May.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.9% (0.7% y/y) after rising 0.3% in May. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) in June after a 0.2% May decline.
Consumers remained inclined to dine out. Restaurant & drinking rose 0.3% in June following a 0.4% May increase, revised from a 0.4% decline. Growth over the last twelve months, however, remained weak, declining 4.4% y/y.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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