U.S. Retail Sales Rise Moderately in October; Nonauto Sales Gain Minimally
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- September sales increase is doubled.
- Most sales categories’ sales are little changed.
- Motor vehicle sales surge while gasoline purchases edge higher.
Total retail sales increased 0.4% (2.8% y/y) during October after a 0.8% September gain, revised from 0.4%. August sales eased 0.1%, revised from a 0.1% rise, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales edged 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after a 1.0% September rise, revised from 0.5%. August sales less autos were revised to a 0.1% decline from a 0.2% increase. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 1.6% (3.4% y/y) last month after rising a minimally revised 0.2% in September. This compares to a 0.8% gain (4.1 y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 4.9% September increase.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) after rising 1.2% in September, revised from 0.7%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Elsewhere, sales performance was mixed in October. Electronics & appliance store sales jumped 2.3% (-2.3% y/y) after falling 2.9% in September. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after rising 1.0%. Sales of nonstore retailers grew 0.3% (7.0% y/y) after a 1.7% rise. General merchandise store purchases improved 0.2% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Within that category, department store sales eased 0.2% (-0.0% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Gasoline service station sales edged up 0.1% (-7.1% y/y) after falling 0.9% in September.
Working lower, sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales fell 1.1% (-3.4% y/y) after they moved 0.9% higher in September. Furniture & home furnishing store sales declined 1.3% (+1.5% y/y) after they rose 0.7% in September. Miscellaneous store sales, which account for 2.2% of the total, declined 1.6% (+4.0% y/y) after improving 2.2% in September.
In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales declined 1.1% (+1.6% y/y) last month after a 2.3% September rise. It was the first decline in six months. Food & beverage store sales edged 0.1% higher last month and rose 2.7% y/y).
Consumers’ penchant to dine out continued last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales increased 0.7% (4.3% y/y) in October, the seventh consecutive monthly rise.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA
Economic Outlook from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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