U.S. Retail Sales Surge in July; Nonauto Sales Continue to Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Vehicle sales strengthen while gasoline purchases edge higher.
- Core retail spending gain moderates.
- Furniture & electronics sales jump.
Total retail sales increased 1.0% (2.7% y/y) during July after slipping 0.2% in June, revised from no change. Sales in May rose 0.2%, revised from 0.3%, according to the Census Bureau. A 0.4% July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales strengthened 0.4% (3.1% y/y) last month following a 0.5% June rise, revised from 0.4%. Sales in May were unchanged, revised from up 0.1%. A 0.2% July increase in nonauto sales had been expected.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts increased 3.6% (0.8% y/y) during July after falling 3.4% in June, and rising 1.1% in May. The latest gain compares to a 4.0% rise in unit sales of light vehicle sales last month. Rising by 0.1% (0.5% y/y) were gasoline service station sales after a 1.8% June drop.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) last month following a 0.9% June rise and 0.4% May increase. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts.
Leading the nonauto sales increase last month was a 1.6% jump (5.2% y/y) in electronics & appliance store sales which followed a 1.1% June decline. Building material & garden equipment store sales strengthened 0.9% (0.4% y/y) after rising 1.5% in June. Furniture & home furnishings store sales improved 0.5% (-2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% rise in June. General merchandise store sales improved 0.5% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.2% June gain and department store sales eased 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Sales of nonstore retailers improved 0.2% (6.7% y/y) after a 2.2% increase. Working lower, clothing & accessory store sales slipped 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) and reversed the June rise. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales fell 0.7% (-6.8% y/y) after holding steady in June. Miscellaneous store sales fell 2.5% last month (+3.2% y/y) after a 1.7% June gain.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.8% (3.4% y/y) during July after rising 0.4% in June. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.9% (2.9% y/y) in last month after a 0.2% June rise.
Consumers dined out more frequently last month. Restaurant & drinking rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y) in July following a 0.1% June improvement.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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