U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Increase in August
Summary
- August total retail sales +0.1% (+2.1% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months.
- Ex-auto sales up 0.1%, while auto sales down 0.1%.
- Rebounds in miscellaneous store sales (+1.7%) and nonstore retail sales (+1.4%).
- Declines in gasoline sales (-1.2%) and electronics & appliance store sales (-1.1%).
Total retail sales edged up 0.1% m/m in August after an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in July (+1.0% initially) and a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in June (-0.2% previously), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The August m/m increase was the third in four months. A 0.2% m/m August decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 2.1% in August from 2.9% in July. The latest y/y figure was modestly below 3.1% in August 2023 and significantly below a peak of 52.5% in April 2021.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales ticked up 0.1% (2.3% y/y) in August after an unrevised 0.4% gain in July, registering the third consecutive m/m gain and the sixth in seven months. A 0.2% m/m August increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts dipped 0.1% (+1.3% y/y), the second m/m decline in three months, following a 4.4% July gain.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) in August, the fourth straight m/m rise, after a 0.4% increase in July. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials grew 0.2% (3.6% y/y), the fourth successive m/m gain, after a 0.4% July increase.
Sales by category were mixed in August. Miscellaneous store sales rebounded 1.7% (10.7% y/y) in August, up for the second month in three, after a 0.8% drop in July. Nonstore retail sales recovered 1.4% (7.8% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months, after a 0.4% July decline. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales rose 0.3% (-3.6% y/y), the first m/m rise since May, following a 0.9% July decrease. Building materials & garden equipment store sales inched up 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.8% July increase, posting the third consecutive m/m gain and the fourth in five months.
To the downside, gasoline station sales slid 1.2% (-6.8% y/y) in August, the third m/m slide in four months, after a 0.5% increase in July. Electronics & appliance store sales dropped 1.1% (+1.9% y/y), the second m/m decline in three months, reversing a 1.1% July rise. Furniture & home furnishing store sales fell 0.7% (-0.7% y/y) after a 1.7% July gain and clothing & accessory store sales fell 0.7% (+1.0% y/y) after a 0.1% July uptick; both posted the first m/m fall since March. General merchandise store sales declined 0.3% (+2.1% y/y) in August after rising 0.8% in July and holding virtually steady in June; within this grouping, department store sales fell 1.1% (-2.1% y/y) following a 0.3% July decline and a 0.4% June increase.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.7% (3.5% y/y) in August on top of a 1.7% increase in July, registering the fourth straight m/m rise and the fifth in six months. Food & beverage store sales, however, dropped 0.7% (+1.6% y/y), the first m/m decline since May, after a 0.9% July increase.
Consumers seemed to eat out less frequently in August amid relatively high inflation (August CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales dipped 0.05% (+2.7% y/y) in August following four successive m/m gains.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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