U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in November

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $78.2 billion in November from a downwardly revised $73.6 billion in October (previously $73.8 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $78.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The October/November data puts the overall trade balance on course to narrow in Q4 2024 from the Q3 average. Consequently, it could add as much as 25bps to overall Q4 2024 real GDP growth after having subtracted in each of the first three quarters last year. Both exports and imports rebounded in November after posting declines in October. Exports rose 2.6% m/m (+6.6% y/y) while imports increased 3.4% m/m (+9.4% y/y).

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) widened to $103.4 billion in November from $97.4 billion in October (revised from $98.7 billion). Goods exports (Customs Value) rose 3.3% m/m (+5.5% y/y) in November after declining 2.6% m/m (revised from -3.1%) in October. Monthly gains were widespread across end-use categories with only “other” exports posting a monthly decline. Auto exports rebounded 15.7% m/m in November after an 18.7% monthly drop in October. Exports of foods, feeds and beverages, and of industrial supplies each increased 7.5% m/m in November after declines in October.

Imports of goods also rebounded in November, increasing 4.3% m/m (+9.4% y/y) following an unrevised 5.5% monthly drop in October. Again, gains were widespread with no end-use category posting a monthly decline. Monthly gains were led by an 8.9% m/m increase in “other” imports, a 7.4% m/m rise in imports of food, feeds and beverages and a 7.1% m/m increase in imports of industrial supplies.

Imports of petroleum products rose 6.3% m/m in November, failing to offset the unrevised 8.5% monthly decline in October. The value of nonpetroleum imports also rebounded, rising 4.2% m/m in November following an unrevised 5.3% m/m decline in October.

The services trade surplus increased to $25.2 billion in November from a downwardly revised $24.3 billion in October (previously ($24.8 billion). Service exports increased 0.9% m/m (+9.3% y/y) in November, the same monthly rise as in October which was revised down from 1.1% previously. Service export gains were widely spread across major categories, led by a 4.3% monthly advance in construction, a 3.1% m/m gain in transport, and a 1.7% m/m advance in travel. Imports of services edged up 0.1% m/m (+10.2% y/y) in November following a 2.6% monthly jump in October. Monthly changes varied across major categories. Imports of maintenance and repair services slumped 3.9% m/m while imported transport services fell 2.7% m/m. By contrast, charges for use of intellectual property rose 2.1% m/m, imported construction services increased 1.9% m/m, and imported insurance services gained 1.6% m/m.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) widened to $96.5 billion in November from a downwardly revised $91.8 billion in October (previously $92.4 billion). Real exports increased 3.4% m/m while real imports rose 4.1% m/m.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed slightly to a seasonally adjusted $25.4 billion in November from $25.5 billion in October. Exports to China fell 3.1% m/m on top of a 6.0% monthly decline in October and a 6.7% m/m drop on September. Imports declined 1.3% m/m following a 5.4% monthly fall in October. The deficit with the European Union widened to $20.5 billion in November from $17.1 billion in October, while the deficit with Japan narrowed to $5.3 billion from $6.5 billion.

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.