U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in September; the Largest Since April ’22
Summary
- $84.36 bil. trade deficit (reflecting $108.99 bil. goods deficit & $24.63 bil. services surplus).
- Exports drop 1.2% after three straight m/m rises, while imports rebound 3.0%, up for the third month in four.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $100.13 bil., the biggest since March ’22.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China and Japan rise; trade shortfall w/ EU widens to a record high.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $84.36 billion in September after narrowing to $70.79 billion in August ($70.43 billion originally), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the second month in three in which the deficit had widened. The September deficit was the biggest since April 2022 and much larger than the $62.22 billion in September 2023. A deficit of $84.1 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 1.2% m/m (+2.4% y/y) in September, the first monthly fall since May, after a 1.8% increase in August (+2.0% originally). Imports rose 3.0% (8.8% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, following a 1.0% August drop (-0.9% previously).
The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) ballooned to $108.99 billion in September, the largest since March 2022, after narrowing to $94.83 billion in August; it was much larger than the $85.72 billion in September 2023. Goods exports slid 1.8% (+0.6% y/y) in September, the first m/m slide since May, after a 2.4% gain in August. Imports of goods increased 4.0% (9.3% y/y), up for the third month in four, after a 1.5% August drop. The services trade surplus rose to $24.63 billion in September, the biggest since May, from $24.04 billion in August; it was slightly larger than $23.49 billion in September 2023. Services exports dipped 0.02% (+6.1% y/y) in September after a 0.5% increase in August. Services imports fell 0.9% (+6.6% y/y), the first m/m fall since March, following a 1.1% August rise.
The customs value goods trade deficit widened to $108.69 billion in September, the biggest since March 2022, from $94.24 billion in August; it was much bigger than the $86.06 billion in September 2023. The latest figure was in line with a $108.23 billion deficit in the advance report released on October 29. Custom value exports decreased 2.0% (+1.2% y/y) in September, the second m/m decline in three months, after a 2.9% rebound in August. This reflected m/m drops of 6.3% (-3.9% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 3.3% (+8.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 2.3% (-3.4% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. To the upside, exports for foods, feeds & beverages (5.0%; 5.1% y/y), automotive vehicles, parts & engines (3.6%; -5.9% y/y), and other goods (0.5%; 7.9% y/y) increased m/m in September.
Customs value imports rebounded 4.0% (9.5% y/y) in September, the third m/m increase in four months, following a 1.4% drop in August. This reflected m/m rises of 6.0% (11.8% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 4.7% (12.4% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 4.1% (0.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.4% (20.6% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 3.1% (-0.8% y/y) in automotive vehicles, parts & engines. In contrast, imports for other goods (-1.0%; +4.9% y/y) were the only category with a monthly decline in September. Meanwhile, petroleum imports fell 1.9% (-12.4% y/y) in September, the third m/m fall in four months, on top of a 6.8% decrease in August. Nonpetroleum imports recovered 4.5% (11.5% y/y), the third m/m advance in four months, after a 0.9% August decline.
The 0.02% September dip (+6.1% y/y) in services exports reflected m/m drops of 9.0% (+30.8% y/y) in maintenance & repair services, 1.6% (-18.0% y/y) in personal, cultural & recreational services, and 0.4% (+9.6% y/y) in travel services, while exports for government goods & services (4.5%; -8.5% y/y), transport services (1.2%; 3.4% y/y), and construction services (1.0%; 48.1% y/y) rose m/m in September. The September 0.9% fall (+6.6% y/y) in services imports was led by m/m drops of 14.8% (+14.1% y/y) in charges for the use of intellectual property and 1.6% (+7.0% y/y) in travel services, while imports for maintenance & repair services (4.7%; 17.9% y/y) and transport services (2.6%; 11.3% y/y) rebounded m/m in September.
The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value; chained 2017 dollars) ballooned to $100.13 billion in September, the largest since March 2022, after narrowing to $88.53 billion in August; it was much larger than the $85.66 billion in September 2023. The $95.33 billion average monthly real trade deficit in Q3 2024 was slightly larger than the $93.06 billion deficit in Q2 2024. A widening trade balance (net exports) subtracted 0.56%-points from Q3 2024 real GDP growth after subtracting 0.90%-points in Q2 2024.
The U.S. goods trade deficit with China rose to $26.89 billion in September after narrowing to $24.65 billion in August. Exports fell 6.7% (-5.0% y/y) in September following a 9.7% August rebound, while imports rose 3.7% (8.7% y/y) after a 3.8% August decline. The goods trade deficit with the European Union widened to $23.84 billion in September, a record high, after rising to $19.10 billion in August, with exports down 6.5% (+0.8% y/y) and imports up 5.1% (15.9% y/y). The trade shortfall with Japan increased to $5.34 billion in September after narrowing to $4.87 billion in the previous month, reflecting rebounds of 5.1% (5.2% y/y) in exports and 7.1% (-8.9% y/y) in imports. The trade deficit with China was the largest among the three trading partners.
The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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