U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease by 7,000 in Latest Week
Summary
- Initial claims lowest since late February.
- Continuing claims also fall in their latest week.
- Insured unemployment rate dips to 1.1% after 12 weeks at 1.2%.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 221,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended July 22, down from 228,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. The four-week average was 233,750, down from 237,500 the week before. For the July 22 week, the Action Economic Forecast Survey had expected 235,000 new claims. Initial claims have moved unevenly in recent months, decreasing in recent weeks after rising in early June.
In the July 15 week, the number of continued weeks claimed, or “insured unemployment,” decreased 59,000 to 1.690 million from 1.749 million in the week of July 8; that earlier amount was revised from 1.754 million initially reported. The July 15 week’s decline brought the number of claimants to the lowest since 1.688 million the week of January 28.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, continued claims as a percentage of covered employment, decreased to 1.1% in the July 15 week from the 1.2% that had held since mid-April. The rate was no higher than 1.3% for several weeks in March and April. The series low was 0.9% back in July 2022; the series began in 1971. During the recession of 2008-2009, the rate reached a high of 4.9%; during the pandemic period of early 2020, the rate reached an all-time high of 15.9%, although that was clearly due to a non-economic cause.
In the week ended July 8, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs rose to 1.913 million from 1.748 million in the July 1 week. The recent high was 2.000 million in the week of February 25. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the discontinued Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states and other specified regions. In the week ended July 8, the highest rates were in Connecticut (2.62%), New Jersey (2.49%), California and Puerto Rico (2.39%), Rhode Island (2.18%) and Massachusetts (2.00%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.23%), Virginia (0.37%), Kansas (0.40%), North Dakota (0.43%) and Florida, Kentucky and North Dakota (all 0.47%). Rates in other large states include New York (1.89%), Pennsylvania (1.78%), Illinois (1.58%), and Texas (1.15%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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