U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Up Slightly in Latest Week

Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 232,000 seasonally adjusted (+14.9% y/y) in the week ended May 27, up 2,000 from 230,000 the week before. The prior weeks’ claims were revised from an initially reported 229,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 234,000 in the May 27 week.

The four-week moving average of initial claims was 229,500 in the week ended May 27, down from 232,000 in the prior week, which was revised slightly from 231,750.

The number of continued weeks claimed, “insured unemployment,” edged up to 1.795 million (+28.3% y/y) in the week ended May 20 from 1.789 million the prior week. The prior week was revised down from the initially reported 1.794 million. The four-week moving average of continued weeks claimed was 1.797 million in the May 20 week, little changed from 1.799 million in the May 13 week.

For the May 20 week, the insured unemployment rate – continued claims as a percent of covered employment – was 1.2%, steady for a fifth consecutive week. This rate has been between 1.2% and 1.3% since late January and compares with 0.9% in September and early October last year, which is the all-time low for this measure of unemployment.

In the week ended May 13, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs was 1.637 million (+24.1% y/y), little changed from 1.638 million the week before. The recent high was 2.000 million in late February. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. In the May 13 week, the highest insured rates of unemployment were in California (2.23%), New Jersey (2.14%), Massachusetts (1.99%), New York (1.57%) and Oregon (1.56%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.18%), Nebraska (0.34%), Virginia (0.34%), Kansas (0.34%), and North Dakota (0.36%). Rates in other large states include Illinois (1.41%), Pennsylvania (1.26%), Texas (1.00%) and Florida (0.42%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.