U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Highest since Oct 2021
Summary
- Initial claims up 22,000 in latest week
- Continuing claims rise slightly but still lower than early April
- Insured unemployment rate steady
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 264,000 seasonally adjusted (+25.7% y/y) in the week ended May 6, up from 242,000 in the prior week, which was not revised. This latest week was the highest since the same amount in the week of October 30, 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 245,000 in the latest week. This week’s four-week moving average was 245,250, compared to the late January low of 199,500.
The number of continued weeks claimed, also called “insured unemployment,” was 1.813 million (+24.4% y/y) in the week ended April 29, up from 1.801 million the week before, revised from 1.805 million. The four-week moving average of continued weeks claimed in the April 29 week was 1.830 million, up from 1.827 million the week before.
The ratio of continued weeks claimed to covered employment, known as the insured unemployment rate, was 1.2% in the April 29 week, the same as the week before. This rate has hovered between 1.2% and 1.3% since late January and compares with 0.9% in September and early October last year, which is the all-time low for this measure of unemployment.
In the April 22 week, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1.715 million. This was down from 1.779 million the prior week, which was revised from 1.800 million and compares to a recent high of 2.000 million the last week of February. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 22 were in California (2.40%), New Jersey (2.24%), Massachusetts (2.04%), Alaska (1.72%) and Minnesota (1.68%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.3%), Nebraska (0.32%), Virginia (0.33%), Kansas (0.35%), and Tennessee (0.37%). Other large state rates include New York (1.64%), Illinois (1.53%), Pennsylvania (1.28%), Texas (0.97%) and Florida (0.40%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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