U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Increase Modestly in July 29 Week
Summary
- Latest week’s increase in initial claims still yields decline in 4-week moving average.
- Continuing claims rose, but prior week revised down slightly.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady at just 1.1%.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 227,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ending July 29, up from 221,000 the week before, which was unrevised. The four-week average was 228,250, down from 233,750 the prior week and 237,500 in the July 15 week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had also expected 227,000 new claims in the latest week.
In the July 22 week, the number of continued weeks claimed, or “insured unemployment,” was 1.700 million, up 21,000 from the 1.679 million the week before. That earlier week was revised from 1.690 million initially reported.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, continued claims as a percentage of covered employment, remained at 1.1% in the July 22 week. This compares with 1.2% that had prevailed from mid-April. The series low was 0.9% back in July 2022; the series began in 1971. During the recession of 2008-2009, the rate reached a high of 4.9%; during the pandemic period of early 2020, the rate reached an all-time high of 15.9%, although that was clearly due to a non-economic cause.
In the July 15 week, the total number of continued weeks claimed for all unemployment insurance programs was 1.861 million, down from1.913 million in the July 8 week. The recent high was 2.000 million in the week of February 25. These data are not seasonally adjusted; the total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Claims in programs related to the Covid pandemic are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release since those programs have expired.
The unemployment situation varies widely across the various states and territories. In the July 15 week, the highest state [and territory] rates were in Puerto Rico (2.6%), New Jersey (2.5%), California (2.3%), Rhode Island (2.2%) and Connecticut (2.1%). The lowest rates were in Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Tennessee and Wyoming (all 0.5%), Kansas, North Dakota, and Virgina (all 0.4%) and South Dakota (0.2%). Other sizable states were New York and Pennsylvania (both 1.8%), Illinois (1.6%), Texas (1.1%) and Ohio (0.8%). These state data are no seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
