Kritika Jain

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Today’s UK retail sales data were consistent with a trend toward slower consumer spending though not as slow as many UK economists had expected. 

Some of the key points from this report were as follows-

•	Retail sales volume rose by 0.3% m/m in April, following a rise of 0.5% rise in April. The consensus forecast, however, was centred on a contraction of 0.2%m/m 

•	The headline increase in retail sales volumes was predominantly driven by a rise in online activity which benefitted from an increase in demand for outdoor equipment and summer clothing. May also saw a return of growth in sales volume of fuel stores. 

•	In contrast, food stores’ sales volume fell by 0.5% following a monthly gain of 0.6% in April. 


United Kingdom

UK Retail Sales Post a Positive Surprise

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Tom Moeller

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 1.4% (+1.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended November 22, 2024, continuing the decline in the four-week period ending late-October. 

Prices in the Metals group weakened 4.4% (+5.5% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Tin costs fell 7.4% in four weeks (+16.7% y/y) while copper scrap prices declined 5.4% (+8.6%). Zinc prices fell 5.9% (+16.7 y/y) in four weeks and steel scrap prices were off 4.4% (-6.7% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of lead fell 3.9% (-13.7% y/y). Edging higher, aluminum prices moved up 0.2% during the last four weeks (19.1% y/y).

Crude Oil & Benzene group prices declined 1.6% (-7.5% y/y) in the latest four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened 2.3% to $68.89 per barrel and stood 10.7% lower y/y. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, fell 4.1% (-16.7% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index declined 1.4% (+1.9% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Textile prices eased 0.4% (-1.1% y/y) over the last four-week period. Cotton prices fell 2.4% (-15.0% y/y) and the cost of burlap slipped 0.5% (+15.0% y/y) during the last four weeks. 

Edging higher, prices in the Miscellaneous group improved 0.5% during the last four weeks and rose 3.5% y/y. The cost of natural rubber weakened 11.9% in four weeks but jumped 34.6% y/y. Working higher, plywood prices improved 15.4% over the last four-week period (11.6% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.



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- Tin & copper scrap prices decline sharply.
- Crude oil prices fall. 
- Natural rubber prices decline sharply but plywood prices increase.


FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Weaken in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

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Manufacturing readings fall by a 'tick' in November, but service sector metrics eased by nearly a full point on average. These calculations are for unweighted averages of the above observations. US trends are opposite, so that the overall averages become worse when the US is excluded.  

In November the eight reporters in the table have stronger composite readings reported in only three countries, in Japan, India, and the US.  The US is the only reporter in the table to show improvements in manufacturing, services, and for the composite at the same time, in November.  The UK, France, and EMU each report increased weakness across the composite, the manufacturing sector and in services in November. Among the 24 readings across eight reporters (…and three sectors for each reporter) in November only nine of these twenty-four are stronger month-to-month. This compares to ten in October and eight in September. Weakness has dominated strength over the past three-months across these readings. 

Sequentially we look at 12 month, 6-month, and 3-month averages of finalized data, we see only six of twenty-four stronger over three-months compared to 6-months, after the 6-month averages were broadly stronger showing weakening in only seven of twenty-four cases. Over 12-months there were only nine weakening compared to 12-months ago and they were all confined to three economies: Germany, France and Japan. The unweighted averages of these reporters show little change in the averaging of these sector reading over 3-months, 6-months and 12-months.

The queue rankings underscore the sense of weakness. Assessed among the most industrialized countries, the US is starting to gain separation as its service sector is carrying it to a better overall (composite) standing. The US composite standing is at 69.5% and compares to Japan, the UK, France, Germany and EMU whose highest standing for the composite among these five reporters is a reading of 42.4% -as the group produces an average standing at the 26.1%. 

The US is still strongly ‘plugged into’ the global economy as its manufacturing sector is still the third weakest by queue percentile standing in the table.  But the vibrant US services sector is the economy’s guiding light – plus manufacturing has improved for two months in a row. The global economy is still floundering while the US shows signs of strengthening.


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S&P Flash PMIs Sag Globally

Sandy Batten

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Sales of existing homes rebounded in October, increasing 3.4% m/m (+2.9% y/y) to 3.96 million (SAAR) after having fallen in both August and September. This was the first positive annual gain since July 2021. The effective 30-year mortgage interest rate continues to rise, increasing 60 basis points during October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected October sales of 3.90 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) edged up 0.1% m/m (4.0% y/y) in October to $407,200 from an upwardly revised $406,700 (previously $404,500) in September. This was the first monthly gain in the past four months. The median price of an existing single-family home increased 0.2% m/m (4.1% y/y) to $412,200 in October from $411,400 in September (revised up from $409,000). The median price of condos and co-ops fell 0.6% m/m (+1.6% y/y) to $360,300 in October from $362,500 in September (revised up from $361,600).

Sales of existing homes rose in October in each of the four major regions. Sales in the Northeast increased 2.2% m/m (unchanged y/y), the first monthly gain in three months, to 470,000. Sales in the Midwest jumped 6.7% m/m (1.1% y/y), the largest monthly gain since February, to 950,000. Sales in the South gained 2.9 m/m (2.3% y/y) to 1.77 million after monthly declines in both August and September. Sales in the West increased 1.3% m/m (8.5% y/y) to 770,000.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 0.7% m/m (19.1% y/y) to 1.37 million last month, offsetting a 0.7% decline in September. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) inched down to 4.2 months from 4.3 months in September. This figure has generally risen since February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Sales rose 3.4% m/m after declining in each of the previous two months.
- Year-ago sales increased 2.9%, the first positive annual reading since July 2021.
- Monthly sales rose in all four major regions.
- The median price increased 4.0% from a year ago.


U.S. Existing Homes Sales Rebounded in October

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The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell 0.4% (-4.1% y/y) during October, following two months of 0.3% weakening. A 0.3% decline in the October index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.

Component increases in the leading indicators index which contributed positively to the index change included improved factory orders for consumer goods, higher stock prices in the S&P 500 index and the leading credit index. Series contributing negatively were the factory sector workweek, higher unemployment insurance claims, the ISM new orders index, building permits, the interest rate yield curve and consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. Holding steady was new orders for nondefense capital goods.

The Coincident Economic Index was unchanged last month (1.3% y/y) after holding steady in September. Movement amongst the four components was mixed in October. Industrial production fell, but real personal income and real manufacturing & trade sales rose. Payroll employment held steady.

The Lagging Economic Index eased 0.1% last month (+0.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in September. The duration of unemployment, the six-month change in factory unit labor costs, the prime rate charged by banks and C&I loans outstanding contributed negatively to the index change. The 6-month change in the services CPI and the ratio of consumer installment credit-to-personal income contributed positively. The business inventory-to-sales ratio contributed zero to the index change.

The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, considered another leading indicator, rose slightly last month following three straight months of increase.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.


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- Component movement in leading index is mixed.
- Coincident indicators hold steady again.
- Lagging indicators are little changed.
