U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Advance in January
Summary
- New orders for manufactured goods gained in January; December’s decline is revised to an increase.
- Durable and nondurable goods shipments have notable increases.
- Unfilled orders and inventories also grow.
Manufacturers’ new orders rose 1.4% in January (+13.6% y/y) following a 0.7% increase in December, which was revised from a decline of 0.4% reported a month ago. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.4%% m/m increase in January. In the initial December report, we noted that the decline reported then largely reflected a drop in transportation orders, such that orders excluding transportation had risen a modest 0.1% m/m. Now, transportation orders in December are shown to have increased 1.7% and in January 3.4%. Orders excluding transportation are now seen to be up 0.5% in December and 1.0% in January.
Durable goods orders were up 1.6% in January (14.2% y/y) following a 1.2% increase in December, revised from a 0.7% drop initially reported. In addition to the surge in transportation orders in January, machinery orders were up 2.6% and fabricated metals up 0.2%. Orders for computers and electronic equipment rose marginally, while primary metals orders decreased marginally. Electrical equipment orders fell 0.6% in January and those for furniture were down 4.0%.
New orders for nondurable goods rose 1.2% m/m (13.0% y/y) in January, following a 0.1% m/m rise in December.
Total shipments rose 1.2% m/m (10.8% y/y) in January after 0.7% in December. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 1.3% m/m (12.4% y/y), following a 0.6% m/m gain in December. Shipments of durable goods rose 1.1% m/m (8.7% y/y) in January, following a 1.3% m/m rise in December. Transportation equipment slowed to just a 0.3% (2.0% y/y) increase in January while machinery was the strongest sector, with its shipments up 2.7% in January (14.3% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments rose 1.2% in January (13.0% y/y) and December’s were revised from the previously reported 0.2% decline to a 0.1% m/m increase. Shipments of petroleum and coal products advanced 2.8% (37.9%), reversing a 1.5% decrease in December.
Unfilled orders increased 0.9% m/m (8.9% y/y) in January, after an 0.8% m/m rise in December. They have risen steadily beginning in February 2021, averaging 0.7% per month. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.5% m/m (15.0% y/y) in January, following an 0.8% m/m rise in December. As in December, gains were again widespread, with primary metals the strongest at a 1.3% monthly advance (17.9% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured goods rose 0.7% in January (9.8% y/y); in December, they had grown 0.4%. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (10.3% y/y) in January while nondurable goods inventories were up 1.2% (9.0% y/y).
The factory sector data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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