U.S. Import and Export Prices Unexpectedly Fall in December
Summary
- Import prices decline 0.2% in December as fuel prices drop 6.5%.
- Excluding fuels, import prices rise 0.5%.
- Export prices fall 1.8% as nonagricultural export prices decrease 2.1%.
Import prices fell 0.2% m/m (+10.4% y/y) in December after unrevised rises of 0.7% in November and 1.5% in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The December m/m fall was the first since August. Export prices fell 1.8% last month (+14.7% y/y) following revised gains of 0.8% in November (+1.0% initially) and 1.9% in October (+1.6% initially). The m/m fall in export prices was the first since April 2020. The Action Economics Forecast survey had expected for both export and import prices to increase 0.3% in December.
The fall in import prices in December was driven by a 6.5% drop (+62.7% y/y) in imported fuel prices following an upwardly revised 2.3% November gain (+2.0% initially). The key contributors to the drop in imported fuel costs were m/m declines of 13.7% in natural gas (+86.9% y/y), 6.7% in crude oil (+59.7% y/y), 6.0% in petroleum & petroleum products (+62.0% y/y), 5.9% in fuel oil (+64.7% y/y), and 1.8% in other petroleum products (+64.1% y/y). Nonfuel import prices, however, rose 0.5% (6.4% y/y), the fourth straight monthly gain, after a 0.5% rise, led by m/m price increases of 1.7% in nonfuel industrial supplies & materials (23.2% y/y), 0.5% in foods, feeds & beverages (13.7% y/y), 0.5% in consumer goods ex autos (2.2% y/y), 0.2% in automotive vehicles & parts (2.8% y/y), and 0.1% in capital goods (2.3% y/y).
The December fall in export prices reflected a moderate gain in agricultural export prices but an unexpected drop in nonagricultural export prices. Agricultural export prices rose 0.8% (21.7% y/y) in December, the third consecutive m/m rise, after a 1.1% gain in November. Nonagricultural export prices fell 2.1% (+13.8% y/y), the first m/m fall since October 2020, reversing a 0.6% November gain. Industrial supplies & materials export prices slid 5.0% (+33.2% y/y), the first m/m slide since October 2020, after a 1.4% gain. In contrast, export prices for foods, feeds & beverages grew 0.4% (20.3% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, on top of a 0.5% increase. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.4% (2.5% y/y), the third successive m/m gain, after a 0.4% rise. Capital goods prices increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y), the 12th straight m/m advance, after a 0.2% rise. Auto export prices were unchanged (+1.8% y/y) following a 0.2% gain.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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