U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline Again
Summary
- Initial claims fall to a four-week low.
- Continued claims were unchanged in the week ending January 29.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 223,00 in the week ended February 5 (-74.2% y/y), from 239,000 in the week ended January 29, revised up 1,000 from 238,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 228,000 claims for the latest week. The 4-week moving average of claims eased to 253,250 from 255,250 the prior week, revised up from 255,000.
In the week ended January 29, seasonally adjusted continued claims for regular state unemployment insurance were 1.621 million (-65.2% y/y), unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down from 1.628 million. The latest is the lowest level since 1973.
Initial claims for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, which expired on September 6, 2020, are no longer included in this report. This program provided benefits to individuals who were not eligible for regular state unemployment insurance benefits, such as the self-employed.
The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.2% in the week ended January 29, unchanged from the previous week.
Continued claims for both the PUA program and for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (a program for those unemployed who had exhausted their state benefits) are no longer included in this report as both programs have expired.
In the week ended January 22, the not seasonally adjusted total number of continuing weeks claimed in all programs rose to 2.100 million from 2.068 million in the previous week.
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely. In the week ending January 22, the highest insured unemployment rates were in Alaska (2.9%), California (2.7%), Illinois (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Virgin Islands (2.5%), New York (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), and Puerto Rico (2.1%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.2%), Alabama (0.3%), North Carolina (0.4%), Arizona (0.5%) and New Hampshire (0.5%). Other state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs include Pennsylvania (1.9%), Ohio (1.2%), Texas (1.0%) and Florida (0.5%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and is in the AS1REPNA database.
Kathleen Stephansen, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Kathleen Stephansen is a Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and an Independent Trustee for the EQAT/VIP/1290 Trust Funds, encompassing the US mutual funds sponsored by the Equitable Life Insurance Company. She is a former Chief Economist of Huawei Technologies USA, Senior Economic Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group, Chief Economist of the American International Group (AIG) and AIG Asset Management’s Senior Strategist and Global Head of Sovereign Research. Prior to joining AIG in 2010, Kathleen held various positions as Chief Economist or Head of Global Research at Aladdin Capital Holdings, Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette Securities Corporation.
Kathleen serves on the boards of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), as Vice-Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers, is the Treasurer for Economists for Peace and Security (EPS) and is a former board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). She is a member of Chatham House and the Economic Club of New York. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the Universite Catholique de Louvain and graduate degrees in economics from the University of New Hampshire (MA) and the London School of Economics (PhD abd).
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