U.S. Retail Sales Rise With Higher Gasoline Prices in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Individual categories are mostly firm.
- Online sales fall sharply.
- Vehicle sales decline.
Consumer spending growth remains moderate. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 0.5% during March (6.9% y/y) after rising 0.8% in February, revised from 0.3%. A 0.6% sales increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts strengthened 1.1% (9.1% y/y) following a 0.6% February increase, revised from 0.2%. Expectations had been for a 0.9% increase.
Reflecting higher prices, gasoline service station sales surged 8.9% (37.0% y/y) after rising 6.7% in February. Gasoline prices rose 18.3% last month (48.0% y/y) as indicated in this week's CPI report.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, eased 0.1% in March (+4.4% y/y) after falling 0.9% during February, revised from -1.2%.
Elsewhere, there was improvement in sales. General merchandise store sales jumped 5.4% last month (5.2% y/y) after a 0.2% dip in February. Within that category, department store sales eased 0.3% (+7.4% y/y) after strong gains in the prior two months. Electronics & appliance store sales surged 3.3% (-9.7% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales also jumped 3.3% (-5.1% y/y) last month, about the same as in February. Apparel store sales surged 2.6% (7.3% y/y) after rising 0.6%. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rose 0.7% (3.6% y/y) after increasing 2.7% in February. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 0.5% last month (0.6% y/y) after a 0.9% February rise.
Weakness in retail sales last month reflected a 6.4% decline (+1.8% y/y) in purchases via the internet. Sales fell sharply in three of the last four months. Also falling were motor vehicle sales by 1.9% (-1.2% y/y) after rising 1.5% in February. Unit motor vehicle sales fell 4.6% last month (-23.7% y/y) after declining 6.6% in February.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales surged 1.0% (8.4% y/y) during March after falling 0.3% in February. Health & personal care store sales declined 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) after falling 0.6% in February.
Sales at restaurants & drinking establishments strengthened 1.0% in March (19.4% y/y) after rising 3.0% in February.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
2021: The Year of High Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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