Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 213,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended February 8, down from 220,000 the week before; that was marginally revised from 219,000 initially reported by the Labor Department. The Action Economics forecast survey had expected initial claims to be 220,000, that is almost the same as the prior week’s initially reported 219,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,000, down marginally from 217,000 through the prior week.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims “– was 1.85 million in the week ended February 1, down from 1.886 million the previous week, which was unrevised. The four-week moving average of continuing claims was 1,871.5 million through the February 1 week, down from 1,872.25 through January 25.

The insured unemployment rate was still 1.2% seasonally adjusted; this is the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment.  Except for two separate weeks when this ratio was 1.3%, it has held at 1.2% since March 2013.

Economic conditions vary widely among individual states. So, in the week ended January 25, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey and Rhode Island (both 2.92%), Minnesota (2.56%), California (2.44%), Massachusetts (2.42%) and Illinois (2.41%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.36%), Virginia (0.45%), Alabama (0.48%), Tennessee (0.57%), and North Carolina (0.60%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (2.15%), Connecticut (2.05%), New York (1.96%) and Texas (1.15%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims hold tight range.
- Total beneficiaries decreased in February 1 week.
- Insured unemployment rate remains at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease in February 8 Week

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 11,000 in the week ended February 1 to 219,000, seasonally adjusted, from 208,000 the week before; that was revised slightly from 207,000 reported before. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 214,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,750 through the latest week, up from 212,750 the week before.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.886 million in the week ended January 25, up from 1.85 million the prior week. The four-week moving average of this total was 1,872.25 million through the week ended January 25, slightly more than the 1,870.00 through the prior week.

The insured unemployment rate – that is, the total number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment – still held at 1.2%, where it has been almost continuously since early 2023.

Unemployment rates vary widely across states and territories. The Labor Department reports that in the week ended January 18, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.88%), Rhode Island (2.82%), Minnesota (2.52%), Illinois (2.43%), and Massachusetts (2.36%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.34%), Virginia (0.43%), Alabama (0.45%), Tennessee and North Carolina (both 0.58%), and New Hampshire (0.59%).  Rates in other notable states include California (2.2%), Pennsylvania (2.04%), New York and Connecticut (both 1.88%) and Texas and Missouri (both 1.08%). These state unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total beneficiaries had increased the week before.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at long-standing 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase Slightly in February 1 Week

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 207,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended January 25, down from the previous week’s 223,000, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 220,000, that is, just a marginal decrease, so the actual number is lower than was forecast. For the four weeks ending January 25, initial claims averaged 212,500, down modestly from 213,500 the previous week.

Through the week ending January 18, the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits – also known as “continuing claims,” was 1.858 million, down from 1.900 million the week before. The four-week moving average of continuing claims was 1.872 million, up from 1.866 million the prior week.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of people receiving benefits as a percentage of covered employment, held at 1.2%, where it has been since March of 2013, except for a couple of weeks when it edged up to 1.3%.

Unemployment rates vary widely across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended January 11, the insured unemployment rate was highest in Rhode Island (2.90%), New Jersey (2.86%), Minnesota (2.54%), California (2.47%) and Washington (2.39%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.34%), Virginia (0.45%), Alabama (0.48%), Kansas (0.57%), and Tennessee and North Carolina (each 0.58%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.38%), Pennsylvania (2.04%), New York (1.92%) and Texas (1.19%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Jobless claims maintain narrow range.
- Total beneficiaries ease after prior week increase.
- Insured unemployment rate remains low and steady.

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Decrease 16,000 in Latest Week

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 217,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended January 11, up from 203,000 in the January 4 week; that was revised modestly from 201,000 reported before. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected the latest week to be 214,000. The latest four-week moving average was 213,000, down from 214,000 the prior week.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries, also known as “continued claims,” was 1.859 million in the week ended January 4, down from 1.877 million the week before; that earlier amount was revised up from 1.867 initially reported. The small change left the insured unemployment rate at 1.2%, the same amount as the week before. This is the total number of insured unemployed as a percent of covered employment. Except for three weeks at 1.3% back in November, this rate has been at 1.2% since March 11, 2023.

Unemployment rates vary widely across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended December 28, the insured unemployment rate was highest in Rhode Island (2.95%), New Jersey (2.90%), Minnesota (2.79%), Washington (2.53%) and Massachusetts (2.33%). The insured unemployment rates were lowest in Kentucky (0.33%), Florida (0.34%), Virginia (0.42%), Virgin Islands (0.55%), and Tennessee and Alabama (both 0.57%). Rates in other notable states include California (2.22%), Pennsylvania (2.15%), New York (2.03%) and Texas (1.19%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total beneficiaries decline in prior week.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%.
- Rates in states range from 0.33% in Kentucky to 2.95% in Rhode Island.

U.S. Modest Rise in Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance in Jan. 11 Week

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Consumer credit outstanding fell $7.5 billion in November, seasonally adjusted, following a $17.3 billion surge in October. That earlier amount was revised from $19.2 billion reported a month ago. For the latest month, the Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected an increase of $12.0 billion. As a percentage of disposable personal income, consumer credit was 23.2% in November, down slightly from October’s 23.3%.

In November, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, dropped $13.7 billion, following a $15.2 billion increase in October. That earlier month was revised from a $15.7 billion increase reported last month. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 3.9% y/y, less than the 6.4% rise in October. Revolving credit held by financial companies fell 12.5% y/y while that held by credit unions rose 4.4% y/y.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $6.2 billion in November, noticeably more than the $2.2 billion in October and $1.2 billion in September. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions rose $2.2 billion in November, very modestly less than the $2.3 billion in October and also less than the $2.5 billion in September. Credit union holdings of such loans increased $0.3 billion in November, reversing their $0.2 billion decrease in October.

Student loans totaled $1.773 billion in Q3, up by 2.3% from Q2, when they had fallen 1.1%. Motor vehicle loans grew $0.9 billion in Q3, less than their $1.7 billion increase in Q2 and $2.5 billion in Q1.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revolving credit has sizable November drop.
- Nonrevolving credit had sizable November advance.

U.S. Consumer Credit Declined in November after Big October Increase

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 10,000 in the week ended January 4 to 201,000. This was the smallest since 199,000 the week of January 28, 2023, and noticeably lower than had been expected in the forecast median of the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which was 220,000. The latest four-week moving average of actual initial claims was 213,000, down from 223,250 through the prior week.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries, also known as “continued claims,” was 1.867 million in the week ended December 28, 2024, up from 1.834 million the week before. That earlier amount was revised down from 1.844 million reported before. The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment, was yet again 1.2%; it has been at that amount since March 11, 2023, except for three individual weeks when the rate ticked up to 1.3%.

Unemployment rates vary markedly across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended December 21, the insured unemployment rate was highest in New Jersey (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Minnesota and Washington (each 2.2%), Alaska and California (each 2.0%) and Massachusetts (1.9%). The rates were lowest in Florida (0.3%), Alabama and Virginia (each 0.4%), and New Hampshire, South Dakota and Tennessee (each 0.5%). Rates in other notable states include New York and Pennsylvania (each 1.7%), and Texas (1.0%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Continuing claims did increase the prior week.
- Insured unemployment rate extends run at 1.2%.
- New Jersey has highest insured unemployment rate, while Florida’s is lowest.

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Jan. 4 Week Decrease to Lowest in Almost 2 Years

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 211,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended December 28, down from 220,000 the week before and the smallest number since 209,000 in the April 27 week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for 221,000 in the latest week. The latest four-week moving average of initial claims was 223,250, down from 226,750 the previous week.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.844 million in the week ended December 21, noticeably less than the 1.896 million the prior week. That earlier amount was revised from 1.910 million reported previously. The latest four-week moving average was 1,870,750, down from 1,877,500 the week before. The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, eased back to 1.2% in the December 21 week from 1.3% in the December 14 week.

Unemployment rates vary markedly across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended December 14, the insured unemployment rate was highest in New Jersey (2.44%), followed by California (2.23%, Minnesota (2.21%), Washington (2.15%) and Rhode Island (2.12%). The lowest rate was in Florida (0.35%), followed by Virginia (0.42%), Alabama (0.43%), Tennessee (0.5%) and New Hampshire (0.51%).  Unemployment rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.02%, Massachusetts (1.87%), New York and Pennsylvania (both 1.72%), and Texas (1.15%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims just 211,000 in Dec. 28 week.
- Continuing claims down 52,000 in Dec.  21 week.
- Insured unemployment rate returns to long-standing 1.2%.

U.S. Jobless Claims Lowest in 8 Months

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