The Trump Administration is cheering the initial GDP results for 2018, claiming that the fastest economic growth in more than a decade proves that the bold and risky fiscal policy experiment of legislating substantial cuts in business [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Mar 01 2019Fiscal Policy Experiment: Success or Failure
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- Global| Feb 26 2019
The New Inflation Debate
Policymakers are involved in another debate about inflation, but this time its because some think reported inflation is too low, not too high. The new view is not based on any formal review or research. Rather, some policymakers think [...]
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- Global| Feb 21 2019
The Fed's Mistake
At the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting policymakers decided to adopt a “patient posture” arguing that they saw “few risks” in maintaining the current target range for the federal funds. Easy money conditions have [...]
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- Global| Feb 06 2019
A New Working Theory of Inflation
It has long been observed that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The foundation for this observation was developed decades ago when accelerating and decelerating rates of consumer price inflation were associated with similar [...]
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- Global| Jan 31 2019
Fed's Pause & Risks of A Hard Landing
At the press conference following the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that members "believe that our current policy is appropriate at this time". Only 6 weeks before at the press [...]
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- Global| Jan 18 2019
"Opportunistic" Strategy for the Fed
Federal Reserve officials are between a rock and a hard place. Even though economic growth has topped policymaker’s expectations turbulence in the financial markets due to fear of tighter monetary conditions and the risk of a trade [...]
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- Global| Jan 08 2019
America's Trade and Production Problem
The US and China just concluded another round of lower ranking official trade negotiations. The next step is more formal talks with senior officials and there is great anticipation that a trade deal will be struck between China and [...]
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- Global| Dec 21 2018
Fed Needs to Include Asset Prices in Their Playbook
In 2008 I attended the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 52nd annual economic conference "Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy." During one of the panel discussions of then current policymakers I asked, "How [...]
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- Global| Dec 10 2018
Is the CPI or PCE the "Correct" Price Target for Monetary Policy? Both Are Flawed Price Measures
The economic profession and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) statisticians have been debating the proper construction of price indices for decades. It is probably a good time to renew the debate since published price indexes have [...]
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- Global| Nov 20 2018
Asset Cycles & Financial Crises: "Made In Washington"
The Federal Reserve is facing the growing possibility of the third asset price bust in the last two decades. And each one has a "Made in Washington" label attached to it as policymakers have failed to use official rates to maintain [...]
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- Global| Nov 13 2018
The Fed's New Challenge: Using Interest Rate Lever to Maintain Financial Stability
Policymakers are confronted with a very different and challenging environment, both operationally and politically. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability, but is also charged with maintaining [...]
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- Global| Oct 29 2018
Early Report Card On Trump's Fiscal Policies---Grade C
The Trump Administration has used a variety of changes in fiscal policies---business and consumer tax cuts, de-regulation, increase in defense and domestic discretionary spending and tariffs on selected foreign goods---to help spur [...]
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