Inflation has often been involved in political controversy, but today the pendulum has swung from politicians to monetary policymakers. Politicians used the controversy over high inflation to force change in its measurement. Monetary [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.

Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Mar 28 2019
The Politics of Inflation
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Global| Mar 20 2019
"Is the Equity Bull Market Too Big to Fail?"
The US equity market is on another streak, posting a double-digit gain since the start of the year and extending a bull run that has lasted 10 years. In terms of pure numbers, equities occupy a position far above any other asset, and [...]
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Global| Mar 11 2019
Payroll Job Data Not A "Fluke": Reflects Slower Growth in Q1
Payroll employment increased by only 20,000 in February, following a 311,000 gain in January. Many analysts quickly dismissed the small gain in payrolls, arguing that it was inconsistent with other labor market indicators and some [...]
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Global| Mar 11 2019
Payroll Job Data Not A "Fluke": Reflects Slower Growth in Q1
Payroll employment increased by only 20,000 in February, following a 311,000 gain in January. Many analysts quickly dismissed the small gain in payrolls, arguing that it was inconsistent with other labor market indicators and some [...]
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Global| Mar 11 2019
President's 2020 Budget: "Chaos" in the Numbers!!!
President Trump's 2020 budget proposal has many story lines, but the main story is the "chaos" in the numbers. Not only do the economic forecasts appear to be overly optimistic when compared to consensus estimates, they contradict two [...]
Global| Mar 08 2019
Record U.S. Trade Deficit—Is it a Sign of Cyclical Strength or Structural Weakness?
In 2018, the US merchandise trade deficit hit a record $891.3 billion. Many analysts, academics and even a former policy advisor downplayed the record trade deficit, arguing that "a higher trade deficit means a stronger economy"; and, [...]
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Global| Mar 01 2019
Fiscal Policy Experiment: Success or Failure
The Trump Administration is cheering the initial GDP results for 2018, claiming that the fastest economic growth in more than a decade proves that the bold and risky fiscal policy experiment of legislating substantial cuts in business [...]
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Global| Feb 26 2019
The New Inflation Debate
Policymakers are involved in another debate about inflation, but this time its because some think reported inflation is too low, not too high. The new view is not based on any formal review or research. Rather, some policymakers think [...]
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Global| Feb 21 2019
The Fed's Mistake
At the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting policymakers decided to adopt a “patient posture” arguing that they saw “few risks” in maintaining the current target range for the federal funds. Easy money conditions have [...]
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Global| Feb 06 2019
A New Working Theory of Inflation
It has long been observed that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The foundation for this observation was developed decades ago when accelerating and decelerating rates of consumer price inflation were associated with similar [...]
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Global| Jan 31 2019
Fed's Pause & Risks of A Hard Landing
At the press conference following the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that members "believe that our current policy is appropriate at this time". Only 6 weeks before at the press [...]
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Global| Jan 18 2019
"Opportunistic" Strategy for the Fed
Federal Reserve officials are between a rock and a hard place. Even though economic growth has topped policymaker’s expectations turbulence in the financial markets due to fear of tighter monetary conditions and the risk of a trade [...]
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