The strong gains in the US equity markets during the first half of 2019 were mainly driven by the "hope" of new policies than improving fundamentals. Equity investors have been "hoping" that policymakers will reverse course and lower [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.

Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Jul 09 2019
US Equity Market: An "Oasis" of Hope
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Global| Jun 24 2019
The Fed's "Gamble"
The Federal Reserve appears to be embarking on a new policy. Policymakers appear to be dangling the prospect of more monetary accommodation in order to encourage more risk-taking and use the strength of the asset markets to help them [...]
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Global| Jun 17 2019
Investors Are Overlooking One (Big) Thing: "Profits"
As mid-year approaches, helping support from falling rates and the hints of more monetary accommodation from the Fed has driven the impressive double-digit gains in equity markets. Yet, corporate profits, the ultimate driver of [...]
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Global| Jun 11 2019
Is The Fed At Risk of Repeating the Mistakes of the Past?
Before policymakers decide to provide an insurance cut, or two, against potential destabilizing events in the financial markets, or react to any economic weakness that may be linked to trade disputes it would be prudent on their part [...]
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Global| Jun 05 2019
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad--Testing the Limits of the Fed's Financial Engineering
Decisions to change official rates can no longer be made exclusively on economic growth and price considerations as the dynamics of business cycles have changed. The new business cycle consists of growth and financial leverage (debt), [...]
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Global| May 28 2019
Seven Sins of Price-Targeting
Policymakers are conducting a review of its monetary policy framework, with the 2% inflation target under scrutiny. I have identified seven sins (flaws or misleading claims) about the Fed's price targeting framework that they might [...]
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Global| May 15 2019
Is America on the Losing End on Trade With China?
The Trump Administration has argued that China's unfair trade practices, which include tariffs, non-tariff barriers, export and financial subsidies, limit market access for imported goods, and investment restrictions are largely [...]
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Global| May 06 2019
The "Muzzle" on Inflation
The "muzzle" on reported inflation has policymakers and analysts perplexed. Numerous economic explanations and theories have been offered, and policymakers are considering making changes to their operating price-targeting framework. [...]
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Global| Apr 29 2019
Transparency Has Failed the Fed
The V-shaped pattern in equity prices over the past several months shows how quickly and powerfully monetary policy decisions and pronouncements nowadays influence investor expectations and decisions. The dynamic feedback loop exposes [...]
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Global| Apr 29 2019
Q1 GDP-- Something Odd in the Numbers
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that Q1 real GDP rose 3.2% annualized, advancing almost a full percentage point above the consensus estimate of 2.3%. The headline gain in real GDP proved to be a big surprise, but the [...]
Global| Apr 05 2019
Politics Invades Fed Policy: A Replay of the 1970s?
The Fed has a problem; politics has invaded its policy turf. Criticism by President Trump over the Federal Reserve decisions to hike official rates has now escalated to an even higher level as the Administration's top economic advisor [...]
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Global| Apr 05 2019
The Fed Has A Problem: Politics Invades Policy
The Fed has a problem; politics has invaded its policy turf. Criticism by President Trump over the Federal Reserve decisions to hike official rates has now escalated to an even higher level as the Administration's top economic advisor [...]
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