Consumer price inflation is experiencing its most significant increases in decades. Yet, reported inflation does not capture the full scale and breadth of experienced inflation. I never thought the US would experience rampant [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Jun 11 2021Today's Consumer Inflation Cycle Comes With Yesteryear Denial, Problems & Consequences
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In May, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that lead time for production materials jumped to 85 days, up from 79 in April. The May reading is an entire work-day month (21 days) above the level from one year ago and the [...]
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- Global| Jun 01 2021
A Margin Story: Fast Economic Growth Without Profits
In Q1 2021, the US economy registered double-digit annualized growth in nominal GDP, a rare occurrence. Yet, an even more rare event is that corporate operating profits did not increase in the quarter when GDP growth increased double- [...]
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- Global| May 27 2021
Two Profit Measures & Two Different Stories: GDP Profits Are Unchanged, While S&P Profits Soar
In Q1, GDP-based operating profits for all US companies were unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2020 and posted a 12.7% gain from the comparable period one year ago. The reported profit performance of S&P 500 companies was markedly [...]
- Global| May 17 2021
Fed Is Promoting A Public Perception of Inflation That is False----Bad Outcomes Follow Bad Policies
Federal Reserve officials have made a bold claim arguing that the current run-up in consumer price inflation is "transitory," pushed higher due to base effects and a temporary burst in pent-up demand as the economy re-opens. The Fed [...]
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- Global| May 12 2021
Biggest Rise In Consumer Prices In More Than A Decade Is Understated By Half
Inflation has arrived, evident by the 4.2% gain in the consumer price index over the past twelve months. But the most significant increase since 2008 still is not fully capturing "experienced" inflation since it is missing the rise in [...]
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- Global| May 03 2021
The Fed's "Base-Effect" Inflation Argument Is Nonsense
Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has played down the current runup in inflation, arguing it is associated with the reopening [...]
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- Global| Apr 30 2021
To Sustain the Economic Cycle, The Fed Must Shift The Focus To Financial Outcomes
One year ago, the economic outcomes of record lob loss and business closings were the primary focus of the monetary policy. The Fed took the unprecedented actions of cutting official rates to record lows, buying billions of debt [...]
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- Global| Apr 26 2021
Houses on Fire: 2021 Price Increases Exceed Those of 1979
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing house prices in March were up 18.4% over the same period one year ago. That increase eclipses the prior record increase of 17.4% recorded in June 1979. In 1979, Mr. Paul [...]
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A non-market price---implied rents for owner-occupied housing--- acts as an anchor for reported consumer price inflation. Does that mean policymakers will be right in that the uptick in consumer price inflation emanating from monetary [...]
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The Fed has an inflation problem, but it's not the failure to meet an arbitrary target. The problem is that there is a significant separation between reported and market inflation. The uncoupling is not new and is a statistical issue. [...]
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- Global| Apr 12 2021
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Actual economic outcomes and not forecasted ones are the new policy of the Federal Reserve. Yet, this strategy's flaw is that it is limited to economic outcomes and overlooks or ignores financial ones. It is not a coincidence that the [...]
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