Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has played down the current runup in inflation, arguing it is associated with the reopening [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| May 03 2021The Fed's "Base-Effect" Inflation Argument Is Nonsense
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- Global| Apr 30 2021
To Sustain the Economic Cycle, The Fed Must Shift The Focus To Financial Outcomes
One year ago, the economic outcomes of record lob loss and business closings were the primary focus of the monetary policy. The Fed took the unprecedented actions of cutting official rates to record lows, buying billions of debt [...]
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- Global| Apr 26 2021
Houses on Fire: 2021 Price Increases Exceed Those of 1979
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing house prices in March were up 18.4% over the same period one year ago. That increase eclipses the prior record increase of 17.4% recorded in June 1979. In 1979, Mr. Paul [...]
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A non-market price---implied rents for owner-occupied housing--- acts as an anchor for reported consumer price inflation. Does that mean policymakers will be right in that the uptick in consumer price inflation emanating from monetary [...]
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The Fed has an inflation problem, but it's not the failure to meet an arbitrary target. The problem is that there is a significant separation between reported and market inflation. The uncoupling is not new and is a statistical issue. [...]
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- Global| Apr 12 2021
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Actual economic outcomes and not forecasted ones are the new policy of the Federal Reserve. Yet, this strategy's flaw is that it is limited to economic outcomes and overlooks or ignores financial ones. It is not a coincidence that the [...]
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- Global| Apr 05 2021
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
The Federal Reserve's new policy approach is that policymakers want to see "actual progress, not forecast progress" before deciding to change its policy stance. Substantial actual progress is occurring in the economy, some faster than [...]
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- Global| Mar 30 2021
"Missing Prices": Half of the CPI Is Based on Imputations
Policymakers and analysts involved in the lively debate on the future path of inflation need to consider whether the government statistical agencies have the tools or information to provide an accurate general inflation assessment. [...]
- Global| Mar 19 2021
The Fed's Dot Game: "Something Missing"
The Federal Reserve members' updated projections at the March 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paint an optimistic economic view and an unrealistic monetary policy picture. Policymakers now agree with private forecasters [...]
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Once again, household portfolios are oversized and unbalanced, driven higher by a massive gain in a single asset (equities). Unbalanced portfolios have proven to be vulnerable to abrupt and sharp corrections. Will history repeat? The [...]
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The understatement of housing inflation in the consumer price index has reached a new milestone. As reported, the gap between the actual change in house prices and owners' rent, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), [...]
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- Global| Mar 04 2021
Super Fast Commodity Price Cycle Is A Harbinger Of Sudden Jump In Inflation
A super-fast rise in commodity prices is underway. It should not be a surprise that as the world economy re-opens, commodity prices start to rise to reflect more robust demand conditions. But what has been surprising is the speed and [...]
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