The Federal Reserve's new policy approach is that policymakers want to see "actual progress, not forecast progress" before deciding to change its policy stance. Substantial actual progress is occurring in the economy, some faster than [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
- Global| Apr 05 2021
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
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- Global| Mar 30 2021
"Missing Prices": Half of the CPI Is Based on Imputations
Policymakers and analysts involved in the lively debate on the future path of inflation need to consider whether the government statistical agencies have the tools or information to provide an accurate general inflation assessment. [...]
- Global| Mar 19 2021
The Fed's Dot Game: "Something Missing"
The Federal Reserve members' updated projections at the March 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paint an optimistic economic view and an unrealistic monetary policy picture. Policymakers now agree with private forecasters [...]
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Once again, household portfolios are oversized and unbalanced, driven higher by a massive gain in a single asset (equities). Unbalanced portfolios have proven to be vulnerable to abrupt and sharp corrections. Will history repeat? The [...]
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The understatement of housing inflation in the consumer price index has reached a new milestone. As reported, the gap between the actual change in house prices and owners' rent, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), [...]
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- Global| Mar 04 2021
Super Fast Commodity Price Cycle Is A Harbinger Of Sudden Jump In Inflation
A super-fast rise in commodity prices is underway. It should not be a surprise that as the world economy re-opens, commodity prices start to rise to reflect more robust demand conditions. But what has been surprising is the speed and [...]
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- Global| Mar 04 2021
Super Fast Commodity Price Cycle Is A Harbinger Of Sudden Jump In Inflation
A super-fast rise in commodity prices is underway. It should not be a surprise that as the world economy re-opens, commodity prices start to rise to reflect more robust demand conditions. But what has been surprising is the speed and [...]
- Global| Mar 01 2021
Pioneer of the Inflation Targeting Adds Asset Prices to Its Framework, While The Fed Adds More Fuel
Starting March 1, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RNZ) will consider the impact on housing prices when it debates monetary policy decisions. In doing so, RNZ becomes the first central bank to acknowledge that monetary policy [...]
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- Global| Feb 22 2021
Conversation With BLS About Price Mismeasurement For Housing
Recently, I shared my concerns about price mismeasurement for owner-occupied housing with a senior official who works in the Division of Consumer Prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The senior official agreed with me, [...]
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- Global| Feb 04 2021
Fiscal Stimulus: How Much Is Too Much? Boom/Bust!
Suppose Congress passes something close to Biden's Administration stimulus proposal of $1.9 trillion. In that case, that will lift the cumulative amount of fiscal stimulus in the past 12 months to $5 trillion---three tranches $2.2 [...]
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- Global| Jan 26 2021
Two Decades of Price Mismeasurement & Policy Confusion
Two decades of price mismeasurement and policy confusion have left everyone bewildered and puzzled over inflation. Inaccuracies in inflation measurement are far from being merely academic; it reopens the fundamental issue of inflation [...]
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- Global| Jan 19 2021
This Is Not A Recovery: Lessons From 1980
The statistical bounce off a record plunge in economic activity linked to the pandemic has proved to be short-lived. The economy is not moving forward in a sustainable way, evident by three consecutive monthly declines in retail [...]
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