When I last communicated with you regarding matters related to the U.S. economy, on September 4, 2018 (see "The Flattening Yield Curve – Is It Different this Time?"), the spread or difference between the yield on the Treasury 10-year [...]
Introducing
Paul L. Kasriel
in:Our Authors
Mr. Kasriel is founder of Econtrarian, LLC, an economic-analysis consulting firm. Paul’s economic commentaries can be read on his blog, The Econtrarian. After 25 years of employment at The Northern Trust Company of Chicago, Paul retired from the chief economist position at the end of April 2012. Prior to joining The Northern Trust Company in August 1986, Paul was on the official staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in the economic research department. Paul is a recipient of the annual Lawrence R. Klein award for the most accurate economic forecast over a four-year period among the approximately 50 participants in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast survey. In January 2009, both The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few economists who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Under Paul’s leadership, The Northern Trust’s economic website was ranked in the top ten “most interesting” by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets (McGraw-Hill, 2002). Paul resides on the beautiful peninsula of Door County, Wisconsin where he sails his salty 1967 Pearson Commander 26, sings in a community choir and struggles to learn how to play the bass guitar (actually the bass ukulele). Paul can be contacted by email at econtrarian@gmail.com or by telephone at 1-920-559-0375.

Publications by Paul L. Kasriel
Global| Mar 25 2019
The Flattening Yield Curve – Perhaps It Is Not Different this Time
|in:Viewpoints
Global| Mar 25 2019
A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror
I keep hearing that the US economy is booming. After all, in the first quarter of this year, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% vs. Q4:2018 and 3.2% vs. Q1:2018. Given that our labor force has grown at only 0.8% compounded [...]
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