Well it's Festivus 2019 and time for the airing of grievances. My big beef with you people this Festivus is why you are having trouble explaining tepid wage growth in the face of a low unemployment rate. Firstly, let's examine why the [...]
Introducing
Paul L. Kasriel
in:Our Authors
Mr. Kasriel is founder of Econtrarian, LLC, an economic-analysis consulting firm. Paul’s economic commentaries can be read on his blog, The Econtrarian. After 25 years of employment at The Northern Trust Company of Chicago, Paul retired from the chief economist position at the end of April 2012. Prior to joining The Northern Trust Company in August 1986, Paul was on the official staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in the economic research department. Paul is a recipient of the annual Lawrence R. Klein award for the most accurate economic forecast over a four-year period among the approximately 50 participants in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast survey. In January 2009, both The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few economists who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Under Paul’s leadership, The Northern Trust’s economic website was ranked in the top ten “most interesting” by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets (McGraw-Hill, 2002). Paul resides on the beautiful peninsula of Door County, Wisconsin where he sails his salty 1967 Pearson Commander 26, sings in a community choir and struggles to learn how to play the bass guitar (actually the bass ukulele). Paul can be contacted by email at econtrarian@gmail.com or by telephone at 1-920-559-0375.
Publications by Paul L. Kasriel
- Global| Dec 23 2019
Festivus 2019 – I Got A Lot of Problems With You People About Wages!
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- Global| Nov 25 2019
Just in Time, the Fed Found Easing Just in Time*
The behavior of the U.S. economy so far in 2019 reminds me of its behavior in 1967. The pace of U.S. economy activity slipped significantly in early 1967, but an “official” recession was narrowly avoided thanks to some timely easing [...]
- Global| Oct 31 2019
The Fed to Banks: Why Don't You Just Tell Us How Many Reserves You Need?*
In mid September of this year, the Fed lost control of the federal funds rate to the upside. On September 17, the effective federal funds rate exceeded the midpoint of its target level by 17.5 basis points (see Chart 1, the blue [...]
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- Global| Aug 28 2019
China, Please Stop Selling US Goods at Prices Less Than We Can Produce Them
Chinese government, are you subsidizing your manufacturers/assemblers such that they are selling us goods at less than their costs of production? Regardless of whether you are doing so, you keep selling us goods at prices less than we [...]
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- Global| Aug 26 2019
If Some Bloomberg TV Guest Pundits Were Weather Forecasters, They Probably Would Be Predicting Tomorrow's U.S. [...]
The negative differential between the yield on the Treasury 10-year security and the rate on federal funds suggests that, at best, the pace of U.S. economic activity will slow significantly in a few quarters ahead or, at worst, the [...]
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- Global| Aug 19 2019
Bilateral Trade Balances – Whack-A-Mole?
President Trump has imposed higher tariffs on U.S. imports from Mainland China, in part, to narrow the bilateral trade deficit that the U.S. runs with China. The president's tariff policy appears to be working. As shown in Chart 1, [...]
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- Global| May 31 2019
A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror
I keep hearing that the US economy is booming. After all, in the first quarter of this year, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% vs. Q4:2018 and 3.2% vs. Q1:2018. Given that our labor force has grown at only 0.8% compounded [...]
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- Global| May 02 2019
Why Isn't Consumer Price Inflation Higher? Might Ancient Monetary Theory Hold the Answer?
In the four quarters ended Q1:2019, the chain-price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%, down from 1.9% in the four quarters ended Q4:2018. This was the slowest increase since 1.0% in the four quarters ended [...]
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- Global| May 01 2019
Why Isn't Consumer Price Inflation Higher? Might Ancient Monetary Theory Hold the Answer?
In the four quarters ended Q1:2019, the chain-price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%, down from 1.9% in the four quarters ended Q4:2018. This was the slowest increase since 1.0% in the four quarters ended [...]
- Global| Mar 25 2019
The Flattening Yield Curve – Perhaps It Is Not Different this Time
When I last communicated with you regarding matters related to the U.S. economy, on September 4, 2018 (see "The Flattening Yield Curve – Is It Different this Time?"), the spread or difference between the yield on the Treasury 10-year [...]
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- Global| Mar 25 2019
A Booming US Economy – When Looking in the Rearview Mirror
I keep hearing that the US economy is booming. After all, in the first quarter of this year, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% vs. Q4:2018 and 3.2% vs. Q1:2018. Given that our labor force has grown at only 0.8% compounded [...]
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