Introducing

Robert Brusca

Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

Publications by Robert Brusca

United Kingdom| Sep 24 2026
U.K. Retail Sales Come Up Lame in September
BOE Decision to Hold Rates in the Face of Inflation Seems Prescient While inflation continued to be a problem as the Bank of England had its last policy meeting, the BOE decided to hold the line on the policy rate despite a slightly worse inflation report than expected just prior to the meeting of the central bank committee. One reason was that inflation, which was flaring because of pressure on oil prices, had not been spreading in the economy. The BOE didn't see a reason to raise interest rates to stop a spread that wasn't occurring, and the MPC knew there was no reason to raise interest rates to roll back oil prices because interest rates would have no effect on oil prices, which were rising globally for completely different reasons.

The decision to hold off on interest rates is certainly further justified as the CBI retail sales report for September shows a worsening in sales compared to a year ago, a worsening in orders, a worsening of sales for time of year, and a small pickup in the level of stocks that is arguably involuntary.

The changes on the month are in fact severe, and not technical, with sales compared to a year ago falling to -55 in September from -48 in August, while orders compared to a year ago posted a net reading of -62, down from -29, more than doubling their previous negative value. Sales for the time of year also fell severely to a net reading of -40 in September from -26 in August. These are massive changes in already negative numbers on a monthly basis.

The percentile standings for these values are also extremely low. Orders compared to a year ago are at the lowest value seen in data since December 2001. Sales compared to a year ago have been weaker only 1% of the time. Sales compared to what they normally do this time of year have a 4.4 percentile standing; they are weaker, less than 5% of the time. While the inventory number crawled higher, it has a 21.1 percentile standing. None of these figures inspire any confidence as to the shape of the consumer. And the outlook doesn’t get better either.

A survey of expectations also shows severe deterioration, not just deterioration, for October compared to September. Sales, compared to a year ago, dropped to a net value of -37 in October from -22 in September, carving out a 6.4 percentile standing, another extremely weak standing, this time for expected sales. Orders compared to a year ago logged a reading of -63 in October compared to -40 in September; this is another very sharp deterioration in view of severe weakness the month before. It’s another all-time low for the reading on data since December 2001. Sales for the time of year weakened to a reading of -39 in October from -29 in September, creating a 4.3 percentile standing, yet another bottom 5% standing, this time for expected sales for the time of year.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 23 2026
S&P PMIs Five of Seven Early Reporters Show Stronger Output in September
Japan, a usual early reporter, has not reported early this month. But among the seven reporters, five show improved monthly performance in September compared to August. The United Kingdom and Australia are weaker on the month. The euro area, Germany, France, India, and the United States are better on the month. Four of seven reporters show queue standings for monthly readings that are above their averages of the past 4½ years. The U.S. composite queue standing is exceptionally strong, with an 89.7 percentile standing for its composite index in September.

Ironically, India, which has the lowest queue-ranking index, has the second highest diffusion reading among the September reporters, at 56.5. It is second only to the U.S. at 58.4. That result for India simply underscores how well India’s economy has done over the past 4½ years compared to everyone else. To flesh that out, over the past 4½ years India’s composite average has been 58.1; the U.S., 53.6; the U.K., 52.4; the euro area, 51.3; Australia, 51.1; Germany, 50.9; and France, 49.9. France is the only reporter in the table to have averaged a composite index that shows a net decline over the whole period.

These average rankings give you some idea of how weak the past 4½ year period has been. Both Germany and France also log manufacturing readings below 50, indicating manufacturing sector contraction on average. In the euro area, the average reading was 50.9—above breakeven of 50 but by less than one diffusion point—obviously weighed down by France and Germany. Australia is the only country that has an average services reading weaker than its manufacturing reading for the full period.

Sequentially, the manufacturing data are improving from 12 months to six months to three months. Services are close to that same phenomenon but on relatively flat numbers. Over the past three months, the composite index, manufacturing, and services are all steadily progressing higher when a simple average of the seven responses is collected. There are three sectors and seven countries sketching out 21 comparisons each month. August and September each have eight weaker responses out of 21, while July had only three responses of ‘weaker’ out of 21.

The queue standings, which rank the current index levels across sectors for the last 4½ years, show 14 of 21 readings above their respective means, that is, with a standing of over 50%. India’s standing is the weakest with all readings below 50%, but that is much more a statement about past strength than about current weakness. The U.K. and Australia each have two sectors below 50% in standing. For Australia, it is the composite and manufacturing; for the U.K., it is the composite and services. However, for all countries, manufacturing performance in September is worse than it was in January 2021.

As of September, there is still a good deal of manufacturing weakness in play, with four of seven early reporters showing manufacturing weaker monthly in September. Only the U.K. and Australia have weaker service sectors month-to-month.

On balance, the S&P PMI readings show that the global economy is still getting stronger despite inflation, rate hikes, and challenges posed by war and geopolitical tensions. However, we should not assume that progress will continue apace. To some extent growth has been maintained by running down stocks of scarce goods, and some stocks of needed items may now be low. Winter is coming, and with it will come the demand for a winter energy source. It is no time to get complacent.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
United Kingdom| Sep 21 2026
U.K. Housing Surveys and Consumer Sentiment Support the View of Weak Growth
The exhibits in this report feature a graph based on the RICS survey showing U.K. sales expectations for the next three months versus the last three months, while tabular data show Nationwide housing prices and how they are moving month-to-month as well as year-over-year. In addition, the table provides the recent GfK survey results on consumer confidence in the U.K. and presents rankings of housing prices and consumer confidence.

These statistics paint a somewhat mixed picture of the U.K. economy although clearly they paint a picture of an economy that is not firing on all cylinders. The ranking on year-over-year house price changes in the Nationwide survey and the ranking for the GfK consumer confidence index give highly similar relative signals, with both of them around the 30th to 40th percentiles in their historic queues of data extending back to 1992.

Housing prices are still advancing more slowly than they did in previous years. While consumer confidence is still low, it has shown improvement in recent months, and the last two readings showed year-over-year improvement in the monthly data. The RICS chart on the pace of sales shows some improvement, if not yet outright gains. Still, housing conditions are weak, and the question of whether they are limping back into the black, whether prices are holding on for small gains, or whether there is a more solid recovery taking place remain unanswered. So far, at least, it does not look like backsliding.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Sep 18 2026
German PPI Shows Pressure, But It’s Limited
German inflation in August saw the headline pop while core remained copacetic. The difference between the two trends is like night and day.

Headline PPI Germany’s PPI spurted for the second consecutive month, rising by 1.2% in both July and August. These jumps followed a drop of 0.3% in June. The German headline PPI is up by 4.6% over 12 months, up by 12.5% at an annual rate over six months, and up at an 8.3% annual rate over three months. Those gains are largely driven by energy trends.

The core is a different story The PPI excluding energy in August gained by 0.2%, the same as in July, after a 0.3% rise in June. Sequentially, the ex-energy PPI rose 3.1% (SAAR) over 12 months, at a 5.0% annual rate over six months, and at a 3.3% annual rate over three months. That’s still excessive, but much less worrisome.

Sector stories The sectors, using unfortunately NSA data, show consumer prices moving lower over three months, with very mild, near-target overshooting for investment goods, while intermediate goods bear the burden of pressure. These observations are for the three-month annualized growth rates but apply equally to the 12-month growth rates.

The CPI for reference German CPI inflation, included in the table as a reference, shows roughly the same patterns as the PPI, with the headline growing in excess of the ECB’s EMU-wide target pace, overshooting by about a percentage point, while the CPI ex-energy skims along at a nearly acceptable pace of overshoot that ranges from 2.2% to 2.5% over three months, six months, and 12 months.

Inflation forces present but surprisingly contained Clearly, inflationary pressures are present in Germany and just as clearly, they are not spreading but have done their damage by the weight of energy in each sector. This does not mean there will not be progression or knock-on effects, just that, so far, they have not appeared. And part of this is because of ongoing economic weakness in Germany.

QTD Quarter to date (QTD), the German headline two months into Q3 has risen at an 8.3% annual rate as the ex-energy PPI runs at a pace of 4%. Both are too hot. Sector inflation rates on NSA data are acceptable except for intermediate goods where the pace rises to 5.3% in the quarter (energy, again). The CPI on a quarterly basis also generates a 3.2% headline gain against a core pace of just 2.2%.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Sep 17 2026
EMU Inflation Pressure Remain over the Top but Not Intensifying
Inflation in the euro area rose by 0.4% in August after gaining 0.5% in July on the heels of a 0.1% decline in June. Sequentially, euro area inflation is up by 3.3% over 12 months, accelerates to a 4.5% annual rate over six months, and then settles back to a 3.4% pace over three months. Inflation is more excessive and stubborn than it is threatening.

Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food rose a skinny 0.1% in August after a 0.3% gain in July and a 0.1% increase in June. This version of core inflation is up by 2.4% over 12 months and six months and then settles down to a 2.3% annual rate over three months. The ex-food, alcohol & tobacco core measure, similarly posted restrained monthly gains, with a sequential profile matching the ex-energy & ex-unprocessed food progression.

A cautious ECB On balance, headline inflation is too high largely because of energy, and this is not a surprise. However, core inflation is much closer to being in target. Still, it is excessive over 12 months, six months, and three months, but it's not even 1/2 of one percentage point too high at an annualized rate. Still, it is consistently higher by 0.3% to 0.4% on an annual rate. With energy prices flaring, the ECB is being careful.

Inflation pressure is not growing in breadth The details of inflation for the EMU 21-member inflation measure are similar to those headlines in the core inflation progressions. The details on inflation show that inflation is not broadly accelerating. Diffusion measures, which chronicle the proportion of categories with inflation accelerating, showed very restrained sub-50% readings for August and June, even though July’s relatively hotter increase showed inflation accelerating in nearly 85% of the categories. However, that bad-news month was sandwiched in between two good-news months. Looking at inflation over 12 months, six months, and three months, the diffusion progressions step down from 69.2% over 12 months to 53.8% over six months and to 30.8% over three months. Inflation's breadth has been pulling back progressively.

Inflation is consistently accelerating for furnishings, household equipment & maintenance, healthcare, and communications. However, those are the only three categories that show inflation consistently higher over 12 months, six months, and three months. Inflation is consistently lower over those three periods for alcoholic beverages & tobacco and for recreation & culture.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Sep 16 2026
IP in EMU Shows Weakness Persists
The monetary union graphic seems to show some very gradual longer-term progress underway based on looking at the year-over-year trends by sector. However, the shorter-term trends in the table, for a year and under, are not quite so supportive of optimism.

Monthly Monthly data show that industrial production has really been fluctuating around a zero-growth rate for the last three months, with a July and June drop of 0.1% versus a May increase of 0.2%. Looking at manufacturing alone, there was a drop in July of 0.3%, a June drop of 0.3%, and a flat performance in May. None of this speaks of growing optimism.

Sectors The consolidated monthly sector results show output gains in May and June for consumer goods but a substantial 1.5% drop in July. Intermediate goods output declined in May and June versus a small increase in July. Capital goods output was simply ragged, with a 0.4% increase in May, a 1.8% decline in June, and a 0.5% increase in July; it's hard to know what to make of that choppy performance.

Sequential growth in output Switching over to look at the sequential trends, that is, the pattern of growth rates from 12 months to six months to three months, what you see for the headline series is output falling by 0.2% over 12 months, rising at a 2.3% annual rate over six months, and then going flat over three months. Manufacturing industrial production shows an erratic loss and gain, and then a loss over three months. Consumer goods are encouraging on this timeline, with output falling by 4.4% over 12 months, rising by 5.9% at an annual rate over six months, and accelerating to a 13% annual rate over three months. Both consumer durables and nondurables output show acceleration; this is a rare bright spot in this report. Intermediate goods output shows acceleration from 12 months to six months and then a step back from a six-month growth rate of 2.5% to a 4% decline at an annual rate. Capital goods have the same characteristics, with a 12-month and six-month gain on the books and then a 3.8% annual rate decline over three months.

Quarter-to-date trends Quarter-to-date data, which is a nascent calculation since this report is for July, show declines underway for overall output, manufacturing, intermediate goods, and capital goods. The consumer goods categories are all showing increases in the quarter to date to offset the weakness in intermediate and capital goods, but still not enough to put an increase into the headlines.

Percentile standings The percentile standings, which rate the growth rates in a historic context since late 2006, show that only intermediate goods have an annual growth rate that registers above its median, and even then, it only has a 54.2 percentile standing. Capital goods come close to a neutral standing with a 46.2 percentile standing but consumer goods’ annual growth rate is very weak and logs a bottom-10-percentile standing.

Country detail monthly Country detail is not very reassuring, with six monetary union countries showing declines in July, the same as in June, compared to seven showing declines in May. This is for a small group of 12 countries that we track in the table. The medians for this group show declines in May, June, and July.

Countries sequentially Tracking the sequential trends for these 12 countries produces eight declines over three months, six declines over six-months, and seven declines over 12 months. The medians for each span are negative growth rates, and the negative growth rates get larger from 12 months to six months to three months, not a reassuring development. Also, statistics on the percent of reporters accelerating are below 50% for all periods. Over three-months, 18.2% of the countries are showing acceleration compared to six months, while over 12 months only 9.1% of the reporters are showing acceleration compared to the previous 12-month period.

Percentile standing by countries: weakness prevails Among the countries, only four show industrial production with year-over-year growth rates above their historic medians. The Netherlands leads the pack with a 93.3 percentile standing, followed by Finland with an 81.9 percentile standing, Malta with a 55.5 percentile standing, and Spain with a 52.9 percentile. The three largest monetary union economies have industrial production with annual growth rates ranking in the 20th percentile for Germany and France, while Italy is in its 47th percentile.

Summing up The weak showing in the latest data embodies weak trends. Recent months are weak as well, but more in a floundering way than in a deteriorating way. But the three-month growth rates taken together show more weakness than floundering. It’s not a reassuring report.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 15 2026
ZEW Current Situation Improves; Inflation Expectations Jump!
The ZEW financial experts in September see broadly improving macroeconomic conditions in the euro area, Germany, the United States, and China. There are step-ups in each of these areas, mostly by modest increases of four to seven points month-to-month. However, Germany shows a month-to-month increase of 14 points, the largest gain of the group. The percentile standings of the readings show an above-median (which means an above 50th percentile reading) for the euro area at a 59.8 percentile and for China at a 77.3 percentile. Both Germany and the U.S. lag their medians, with Germany at a 38.9 percentile standing and the U.S. at a 44.5 percentile standing.

Economic expectations are little changed and mixed among the three countries: Germany, the U.S., and China. The U.S. sees a slight setback as its monthly reading falls by 3.2 points; German expectations edge up by 0.5; China’s reading falls by 4.1 points. Only the reading for Germany stands above its 50th percentile, at the 59th percentile standing.

Inflation expectations are probably the big story this month, with big changes in all the reporting units of over 20 points on the month and all of them jumping up well over their median estimates, with rankings ranging from a 52.3 percentile standing in the U.S. to an 81.8 percentile standing in China. The outlook for inflation has suddenly worsened largely on events in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and increased pessimism about prospects for peace in the Middle East anytime soon.

Because of this short-term interest rate expectations are also higher, rising by 39 points in the U.S., 19 points in the euro area, and over 13 points in China month-to-month. All the readings for short-term rate expectations are above their medians, well above their respective 50th percentiles, with standings ranging from a low of the 71st percentile for the U.S. to the mid-80th percentile for both the euro area and China.

There are smaller increases, although increases in each of the areas, for long-term interest rate expectations, with the largest increases for the U.S. at 11.5 points on the month, whereas Germany and China log increases of about 3.8 to 3.9 points. Percentile standings show that long-term rate expectations are only above the 50th percentile standing for China, whereas for Germany they are at the 37th percentile. For the U.S., they are at the 44th percentile. Though the sharp increase in inflation expectations seems to have caught short-term interest rates off guard, longer-term interest rates have followed suit with only relatively small adjustments, not jumping to draconian levels, at least not yet. This would suggest that, with the rise in short-term expectations, financial experts think that central banks are still in control of inflation developments. That’s good news.

Not surprisingly, against this background stock market expectations deteriorated in each region. The smallest decline was in Germany, a decline of 4.4 points, while the largest was in China, a decline of 11.8 points. Germany is the only area where the stock assessments are below their 50th percentile. The euro area just makes the 50th percentile mark at 50.5. The U.S. comes in at a 58.3 percentile, while China has a 62.1 percentile standing assessment for the month. Generally speaking, the acceleration of inflation expectations has created some setback on stocks but hasn't had a draconian impact there either.

The outlook is that the economic situation has improved slightly in the month and economic expectations have a mixed performance and are generally slightly subpar. Inflation expectations jump sharply and have had a big impact on short-term rates, a more moderate impact on long-term rates, and a modest impact on stock values. Because of the sharp one-month rise in inflation expectations, we're going to want to watch these developments very closely.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Sep 14 2026
Japan’s IP Shows Developing, Solid Uptrend
Japan’s industrial production rose in July largely on a jump in gas & electric utilities output. But manufacturing IP made a small move backward, with output falling by 0.1% month-to-month. Consumer goods output did turn sharply lower in July, dropping by 1.3% month-to-month, but intermediate goods output advanced by 0.2% as capital goods output continued to gear up, rising 3.2% month-to-month after rising 5.5% month-to-month in June. These gains in capital goods output followed a 3.1% drop in May.

Overall industrial output sequential gains show an accelerating output trend. The 12-month gain is 3.6%, the six-month annualized gain is nearly identical at 3.5%, and the three-month annualized gain is at a hefty 9.7%.

Sequential trends in manufacturing show more fluctuations and less of an arrow-straight trend. For manufacturing, 12-month growth is 4%, while three-month annualized growth is 8%. There is a lull in between, with six-month growth showing a 0.2% annual rate decline. Manufacturing sectors generally show a similar pattern, with solid 12-month growth, weaker growth over six months, and a pick-up over three months, with the three-month pace rebounding and turning sharply stronger than its 12-month pace. We see that for intermediate goods and capital goods, with only consumer goods showing steady output deterioration from 12 months to six months to three months. Yet, as the graphic shows, retail sales are holding up and tracking with industrial output gains overall.

On a quarter-to-date basis, very early in Q3, output is rising at a 12.3% annualized rate over its Q2 level. Manufacturing output is up at a 7.6% pace. Consumer goods output is a drag, with output falling at a 5.1% annual rate, offset by a 5.4% gain in intermediate goods and capital goods output exploding at a 40.1% annual gain. Utilities & mining output also are rising clearly and strongly in the quarter.

However, Japan’s economy is still in recovery mode. As the table clearly shows, all IP measures are lower than they were one year ago. The economy is still digging out after retrenchment. Moreover, output is still broadly weaker than it was in January 2020 before COVID struck. That’s a long time for output to not have risen, 6½ years. On that comparison, only investment goods output and electric & gas utilities output are higher in July of this year than in January 2020, and in both cases it is by less than 2%.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Sep 11 2026
Japan’s PPI Cools in August – Still Runs Hot
One thing is clear: it is not a deflationary world Japan's PPI headline cooled in August, rising by only 0.1%. However, the headline for the all-manufacturing PPI rose by 0.3%, indicating more pressure.

Sequential inflation pressures for Japan’s overall PPI show a 7.6% gain over 12 months, accelerating to 12.7% at an annual rate over six months, and calming to a still-hot 4.5% over three months. For all-manufacturing, the 12-month gain is 7.7%, the six-month pace annualized is 12.4%, and the three-month pace annualized is 4.6%. These sequential results are very similar for these two series. Despite a substantial deceleration in place from 12 months to three months, the three-month pace is still hot, and the pace of the last two months is still at a troublesome 5% to 5.5%.

Japanese PPI data are available ahead of the CPI data. In the shaded columns of the table, we can compare PPI trends in the EMU and the U.S. through July, as well as Japan's own CPI trends.

These lagged comparisons show that PPI inflation in the European Monetary Union, while excessive over 12 months and six months, somewhat like Japan, has shown a sharper deceleration over three months. In the U.S., finished goods PPI inflation shows somewhat more tempered overall performance compared to Japan, but the just-released August data have turned hot again. The global PPI picture is not reassuring.

However, Japan's CPI, which is the more important reading for central bank attention, shows inflation at 2% over 12 months, rising to a 3% pace over six months and to a 4.4% annualized rate over three months. Japan’s core inflation similarly registers as an expansion of about 1.5% over six months and 12 months but logs a 2.8% increase over three months. Inflation remains restless.

Brent oil prices declined in August, but in spot markets oil is back over $100 a barrel, so it's not clear that we should view August, or the three-month trends, as good news. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be adversely affected. While some oil is getting out, clearly not enough is in circulation to calm world oil markets. In addition, there's a lot of concern about what's going to happen to LNG supplies as winter approaches and LNG is used for heating fuels, particularly in Europe.

Quarter-to-date inflation shows hot numbers for Japan's overall PPI and all of manufacturing. Running at a pace of about 6% in the quarter, there's not much that's reassuring despite the fact that there is a step-down of inflation in August. And will the August ‘print’ even be sustained?

The right-hand column shows the correlation between the price measures in the stub of the table at the left and oil prices. Japan's PPI has positive correlations of about 0.4 with Brent; the European Monetary Union has a PPI correlation of about 0.55. In the U.S., the PPI finished goods index has a correlation of about 0.4. However, in Japan, the CPI has a negative correlation of about -0.2 to -0.4.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Sep 10 2026
A Counterpoint to the ECB Rate Hike from German Core Inflation
On the day that the European Central Bank met and decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the German inflation report for August firmed, showing that headline inflation rose 0.3% on the month, with the core rising by 0.1%. Year-over-year headline inflation in Germany is excessive at 3%. However, the core rate at only 2.3% is not that far above the ECB target for all of the monetary union, a pace of 2%. German inflation for the headline is 3.6% over six months and 3.7% over three months; however, over three months and six months, German core inflation is running at 2%, the ECB’s chosen speed for inflation for the union as a whole.

German core inflation provides a counterpoint to headline inflation. It enables a strong argument that energy price inflation has not spread throughout the monetary union. However, with the ECB raising rates, German bond yields have risen to a 17-year high and the ECB seems determined to treat energy price inflation as something important and significant that it needs to fend off.

Economic conditions still show growth in the monetary union as weak at 1.0%. Growth among the top four economies is 1.1% with growth for the rest of the union year-over-year at 0.5%. So, the ECB is raising interest rates in an environment where growth is modest-to-low and where headline inflation is surging but where core inflation is much better behaved. The pace for Germany at 2% over three months and six months is right on target; 2.3% over 12 months is slightly excessive. For the entire euro area, the core inflation rate is closer to 2.5%, which is uncomfortable but not a terrible overshoot, certainly not with energy prices having flared the way they have.

Diffusion statistics show that inflation over three months in Germany has accelerated in only 27.3% of the categories; however, inflation has accelerated in 72.7% of the categories over six months and in 63.6% of the categories over 12 months. The tempered three-month inflation rate breadth does not dominate the other two metrics; however, it provides another counterpoint to the notion that inflation from oil price increases is spreading.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Sep 09 2026
German, French, and Portuguese IP Fall
Early reports for industrial production showed declines in Europe, with German industrial production falling 1.1% in July, French output falling 0.8%, and Portuguese output falling 0.2%. Nonmonetary union members Sweden and Norway both showed increases in July. The German IP report was released on Monday during the U.S. holiday; the Portuguese IP was released on September 1, while the French IP was reported today.

German production shows relatively steady declines over 12 months, six months, and three months of around 1% or a little bit more at an annual rate. Outputs of consumer goods and capital goods on all three horizons show declines. Intermediate goods output shows declines over 12 months and three months, with an intervening increase over six months at a 2.2% annual rate.

German manufacturing output fell by 2.3% in July, showing steady declines over 12 months, six months, and three months, the same as headline output. However, German manufacturing orders in real terms increased by 2.5% in July, showing an accelerating pattern from 12 months to six months to three months. Current real manufacturing sales fell by 1.5% in July and may still be holding back output. There is a sequential deceleration in real sales, with sales falling by 0.3% over 12 months, by 3.5% over six months at an annual rate, and by 7.3% over three months at an annual rate. Presumably, that pattern is about to be dominated and reversed by the strength in real orders.

Other German indicators from ZEW, IFO, and the EU Commission showed improvement in July compared to June, although the sequential readings are less reassuring since only the EU Commission index shows persistent improvement.

French industrial output fell by 0.8% in July, showing accelerating output declines from 12 months to six months to three months. Similarly, Portugal showed a 0.2% decline in July, with accelerating output declines from 12 months to six months to three months.

The nonmonetary union members Sweden and Norway not only showed strong output increases in July but also sequential acceleration from 12 months to six months to three months.

The EMU begins the quarter to date with weak results as German, French, and Portuguese outputs show declines, while Sweden and Norway are showing very strong increases. For the European Monetary Union members, it's a poor start to a new quarter.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Sep 08 2026
Japan’s Economy Watchers Regain Faith Steadily
Japan's economy watchers are not in a state of bliss, but they have gradually been improving their outlook after suffering a severe setback when the attacks on Iran began.

The current index for economy watchers, which is a diffusion index, at 46.4, is below 50 and therefore indicates some deterioration in attitudes about the economy. However, the reading reflects an improvement, and there has been an ongoing improvement in the current situation.

The future reading, similarly, has been improving; in August, the future index is at 48.3, also indicating some deterioration, but less than a month ago, with an ongoing improvement visible there as well.

Standings The percentile standings of the current index and the future index show slightly stronger readings for the future than for current assessments. The future index has a 49.4 percentile standing, placing it near its median for the evaluation period that goes back to August 2005. The current situation has a standing at its 43rd percentile, about 7 percentile points below its median for that period.

Current Index The current index shows three readings above their 50th percentile standings: eating & drinking places, corporations, and corporate manufacturers. However, even so, all of the current readings in August have diffusion values below 50, indicating that all are showing deterioration, although less deterioration than in the previous month.

Future Index The future reading itself is below its 50th percentile; however, six components are above their 50th percentiles. These include the overall assessment of households, the reading for eating & drinking establishments, services, corporations, including both manufacturers and nonmanufacturers as separate readings. The future reading for housing is extremely weak, with a 29.2 percentile standing, and employment has only a 36th percentile standing in the future index; that's similar to its weak 33rd percentile standing in the current index.

The lagging performance of employment in both indexes is certainly worrisome because that's the basis for jobs and spending. On the other hand, the future reading for households is above its 50th percentile. Households in the current index show a 44.7 percentile standing, below their median as well as below 50 overall, but not weak in a way that is especially worrisome.

The graph shows that there is an ongoing improvement in the assessments by the economy watchers. Their assessments dropped very sharply at the time of the Middle East conflict and the threat to oil supplies. Those assessments have since been recovering quite steadily and have moved to positions back closer to neutral, although still not to the point of registering growth. Among the current and future readings, only the reading for the service sector of the future shows a diffusion value in August above 50, indicating actual expansion; at least there's one, and that's a start.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief