Introducing

Robert Brusca

Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

Publications by Robert Brusca

United Kingdom| Oct 21 2026
U.K. CPI Goes Off the Rails Ahead of BOE Meeting
Inflation in the United Kingdom is back to misbehaving in September. The HICP rendition of inflation posted a 0.5% increase, its second in a row, following a 0.6% increase in July. The CPIH, however, performed exactly the same, with a 0.5% increase in September and August, after a 0.6% gain in July. This is going to put the Bank of England's back up against the wall when it comes to making its next interest rate decision.

Hot, hot, hot: Inflation runs hot in the United Kingdom. The CPIH version shows a 6.6% annual rate over three months, a 4.2% pace over six months, and 3.6% over 12 months. This is a clear accelerating profile with inflation clearly over the 2% mark over each one of those horizons. A year ago, inflation was rising 4.1% year-over-year. There's very little here to provide any escape from the conclusion that interest rates need to go up and inflation is a problem that needs some strict attention.

Core inflation is rising as well: Core inflation in the U.K. under the CPIH measure rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.2% in August and 0.4% in July. The sequence of core inflation rates from 12 months inward shows a 12-month pace of 3.1%, a six-month pace of 3.2%, and a three-month pace of 4.1%. These increases are faster-paced step by step as horizons shorten. However, like the headline, all three of these metrics are above 2% and once again there is this accelerating trend in place, even for the core, and that has to be an even more difficult pill for the Bank of England to swallow.

Inflation acceleration: If we look at the tendency to accelerate, acceleration occurred in 58.3% of the categories in July; that proportion fell to 41.7% in August, and it was back up to 50% in September. So, as of September, the proportion of these categories showing acceleration is split pretty much 50/50, making it less of a clear acceleration imperative on volatile monthly data. However, over three months compared to six months, 75% of the categories are accelerating; over six months compared to 12 months, again 75% of the categories are accelerating; over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, that proportion drops to 41.7%. But the drop in the breadth of inflation is also related to the fact that the 12-month inflation rate had dropped from a year ago at 3.8% to 3.5%; it dropped more, from 4% to 3.1%, in the case of the core CPIH. In other words, inflation has fallen from a very excessive pace to a still excessive pace, and that drop is ‘endorsed’ by a drop in breadth. Breadth can reinforce direction. And now inflation and breadth both are rising – a bad sign.

Inflation ranking: We also can look at how inflation ranks compared to where it's been and on this basis that we wind up with another troubling finding. The HICP version of inflation has an 82nd percentile standing; the CPIH version also has an 82nd percentile standing and the CPIH core measure has a slightly higher 82.7 percentile standing. So, inflation is high even by historic experience; that compares current year-over-year inflation in September to inflation rates back to the year 2000. On that timeline, in fact, the median for inflation has a 77th percentile standing and the average pace for inflation has a 72nd percentile standing across categories. Now both of these are slightly lower than the actual CPIH version at a ranking of 82%. What that tells us is that inflation has been even more virulent in those categories that have a higher weight in the CPI.

Summing up On balance, this is a poor report; it will probably put the Bank of England's back up against the wall to enforce another rate hike. It's hard to see how the central bank can look at these various measures of inflation and their path and decide to pass on a rate hike at its next meeting, so brace yourself.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 20 2026
ZEW Survey Shows a Sharp Reduction in Inflation Concerns
The current situation assessment is mixed To the ZEW experts, economic assessments of the current situation in October are split, with slight deterioration reported for the euro area as a whole and a two-point step-back for China. However, for Germany and the United States, there were significant improvements with the month-to-month diffusion indexes improving by 6 points in the U.S. and by 11 points in Germany. Ironically, both of the weakening areas, the euro area and China, have percentile standings above their historic medians, with China at a 76.1 percentile standing and the euro area at a 58.7 percentile standing. Germany and the U.S. show some strengthening month-to-month, but their standings are still below their historic medians. The German standing is at a 42.5 percentile and the U.S. standing is at a 46.2 percentile.

Economic expectations ease broadly Economic expectations, however, are unequivocally weaker across the reporting countries. There were declines in expectations in Germany of 6.6 points, in the U.S. of 5.3 points, and in China of 4.2 points; each of these three reporters shows a measurable slippage in October. Among the three countries showing slippage, only Germany continues to report economic expectations ranking above its historic median, at a standing of its 53rd percentile (a ranking above 50 means above median).

Inflation makes a sharp step back The real story of the ZEW survey this month, however, is on inflation where the inflation expectations dropped sharply across the board. For the euro area, expectations dropped 26 diffusion points; in Germany, they dropped 24 diffusion points; in the U.S., they dropped 22 diffusion points; and in China, they dropped by 15 diffusion points. Inflation expectations are above their median now only in China, with a 62nd percentile standing. In the U.S., inflation expectations have dropped to a 28th percentile standing.

Rising short-term rates continue as inflation is expected to abate With the decline in inflation expectations, however, short-term interest rate expectations rose by 2 points in the euro area and by 5.2 points in the United States, while in China there was a step-back of 4.1 diffusion points. All three areas, however, have short-term rate expectations well above the historic median levels.

Low inflation expectations boost bond values The reduction in inflation expectations has had the biggest impact on long-term interest rate expectations. Those have fallen in Germany by 13.2 diffusion points; they've fallen in the U.S. by 18.3 diffusion points; and they've fallen in China by 5.0 diffusion points. The ZEW experts apparently think that central banks are going to continue to raise interest rates and the impact is going to be to flatten yield curves globally.

ZEW experts’ outlook for stocks The final market expectation of the ZEW experts is that stock markets generally are seen improving in this environment. For the euro area, there's a 4.1-point improvement; for Germany, a 5.8-point improvement; and for China, the diffusion index is 4.9 points higher. Only the U.S. has a slightly weaker outlook as the outlook falls by 2.3 diffusion points. All the stock market expectations are above their historic medians, generally ranging between readings above 50, at the 54th percentile to the 57th percentile, except for China, where the stock market expectation is in its 83rd percentile, extremely strong.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Oct 19 2026
Japan Shows Growth Progress and Ongoing Weakness
Japan’s sector surveys are showing some progress. However, the most recent observation from the METI sector indexes shows that the tertiary sector in August, which is the services sector in Japan, eased slightly to an index level of 106.8 from 106.9 in July. The rank for this sector based on growth over the last year is in its 64.1 percentile standing; that compares to the industry index that actually stepped down more sharply in August to 101.9 from 104.4 but still has a growth rank in the 84th percentile. The METI indexes can also be ranked according to the index levels rather than their growth rates; on that basis, the tertiary index ranks much higher in its 98th percentile, while the industry index ranks only at its 18th percentile on data back to 2012. You can see that a lot of this is from the post-COVID period since the change in the index from January 2020 to date is a decline of 6.3% for the industry index and an increase of 4.6% for the tertiary index. Japan's economy has clearly been hobbled since the onset of COVID and the recovery from it.

While the METI sector indexes show weakness in August, the leading economic index rose to a level of 118 from a level of 117.6 in July; the year-over-year growth rate ranking of the LEI is in its 92.5 percentile, quite strong. The index level ranked back to 2012 on the same timeline as the METI indexes has a 98.3 percentile standing. These are very different takes on the economy compared to METI, albeit based on different conceptual readings.

Economy Watchers Other indexes weighing in on growth in the Japanese economy come from the economy watchers index, where that overall index rose in August to a diffusion value of 46.4 from 45.7 in July. Over the past year, its growth rate (for the change in the diffusion index) ranked in its 53.5 percentile, while its index level rank is only in its 36.6 percentile. The economy watcher shows a year-over-year growth ranking above the 50th percentile for the retail sector, for eating & drinking places, for employment, and for the future index, with only the services sector lagging behind at the 40th percentile standing. However, when we rank the levels of these sector indexes, which are diffusion indexes, only the eating & drinking places category has a percentile standing above the 50th percentile, which means it's the only sector above its median value on data back to 2012. Meanwhile, all the August values for the diffusion readings themselves are below 50, indicating sector contraction across the board.

Teikoku A separate set of readings comes from Teikoku, where the manufacturing and wholesaling indexes both have readings above the 50th percentile, at the 59th percentile for wholesaling and at the 81st percentile for manufacturing. These are also diffusion indexes; if we look at the levels of the indexes, both manufacturing and wholesaling also have level rankings that are strong in the 80th percentile for manufacturing and in the 64th percentile for wholesaling. Retailing is at the 43rd percentile standing, while services and construction are weaker, with readings closer to their lower third, at the 34th percentile standing for services and at the 35th percentile standing for construction. Like the economy watchers index, these are also diffusion indexes and all of the raw diffusion readings are below 50, showing sector contraction in August.

Every sector tells a story These various indexes tell differing stories depending on the index doing the telling. But the stories aren't so different overall. They show generally that the manufacturing sector is doing well recently, although industry ranks much lower in the METI framework than manufacturing ranks in the Teikoku framework. Services have a sub-50 percentile standing for both growth and level in both the economy watchers and the Teikoku framework, whereas in the METI framework, the services sector is above its median on the same timeline. One of the reasons for the weaker industrial index in the METI framework is that the designation ‘industry’ mixes manufacturing with mining, and the mining sector has been lagging. The differences in the services categories are harder to explain, with much stronger growth in both the ranking and the levels in the METI framework compared to the economy watchers or the Teikoku. However, in the economy watchers segment, the employment index growth rank is quite high in the 71st percentile, but in level terms it's still weak at the 30th percentile. That seems to provide a sort of halfway house to understanding the differences. From that index, it would appear that recent employment growth has picked up, very likely underpinning the services sector. However, the employment index, compared to where it's been historically, remains weak; that leaves the strong reading for the tertiary index ranking as the odd man out and harder to explain.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Oct 16 2026
EMU HICP Detail and Building Pressures
Think of this as though it's mixed doubles in tennis. This is a chart of the PPI pressures in the monetary union, while the table is a more detailed decomposition of pressures within the HICP consumer price measure. The PPI report is a graphic depiction of where the pressures are coming from in the inflation process at the primary levels. It shows us that the greatest pressures are coming from intermediate goods, where the kick to inflation is the strongest. Next, capital goods prices at the producer level are rising on a milder gradient, enjoying an increase at a pace above 2%. However, consumer goods prices in the PPI framework are weak, with a growth rate that has migrated back down toward zero. Yet in the overall HICP data, consumer prices at the consumer level are showing considerable pressure. They're also showing considerable upward momentum, and they're showing us broad inflation pressures all on their own.

The pressures we see in consumer prices are not being pushed up through the producer-price process per se. However, depending on how you look at or think about consumer prices, we know that PPI prices are part of the cost of consumer goods and transportation costs are actually part of the cost of selling to the public as well. That requires not just the production of consumer goods but also the transportation of them to the wholesale location and then to the retail location. Transportation costs are an important part of consumer prices, and we're more aware of that these days because people do a lot more online shopping. They can see the difference between going to the store for a good and having it delivered to their house, where they have to pay an explicit delivery charge. A delivery charge would reflect the fact that somebody has to come to deliver it, but also that a vehicle has to be driven and that vehicle has to be fueled. The PPI shows us that a lot of the pressure being passed on is coming through that fuel channel.

Despite the fact that there's not a lot of cost-push pressure coming from the producer-price stage of production to the consumer, that certainly does not mean that final product consumer price pressures don't exist. We see those pressures in the detailed consumer price report exhibited in the table. As of September, the HICP headline was up 3.8% over 12 months, with the core at 2.5%. Both of those ring the cash register at a pace too high for the ECB target. As of September, that 3.8% pace is at a 90.8 percentile standing on year-over-year inflation data back to 2001, a 25-year comparison. But the lower 2.5% core pace still has an 85.6 percentile standing on that same timeline. These metrics tell us that not only is inflation too high by the standards of the European Central Bank, but they are also significantly elevated compared to what they've been historically.

We provide year-over-year inflation rates for detailed categories within the HICP as well as in the right-hand column, the rankings of inflation for those different categories. Inflation clocks a pace above the 50% ranking for nine of the categories in the HICP presented in the table. In contrast, only five categories have rankings below 50%. The 50% level is significant for rankings because it identifies the median for each of these measures, so we have above-median inflation in nine categories and below-median inflation in only five.

At the bottom of the table, we look at the percent of categories for which inflation is accelerating over three months and over six months. Over three months, inflation is accelerating for 56% of the categories, whereas over six months inflation is accelerating in 50% of the categories. Acceleration tendencies are neutral; by this, I mean that, in data back to 2001, the average percent accelerating over three months is 50% and the average accelerating over six months is 50.2%, so that inflation accelerating or decelerating over this broad period has been an even-handed proposition, with inflation accelerating about half the time and decelerating about half the time. That's just a statement about the proportion of categories that are accelerating; the next question is how strong the acceleration is, because the ranking at the far-right hand side of the table shows that, for three-month inflation, the ranking for the proportion of categories that are accelerating is at 53.9%, whereas over six months, the ranking is at 53.7%. The table also shows the median inflation for the categories listed in the table as well as the average. In September, the median category saw inflation at 2.7%, while the average category was at 2.9%. The median rank of inflation on data back to 2001 is at 63.6%, while the average rank of inflation back to 2001 is 59.9%. There was a slight step down in the median and average inflation rates between August and September even though the inflation rate had gone up between the two periods.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Oct 15 2026
EMU IP Weakness Intensifies
Industrial and manufacturing output in the European Monetary Union remains under intense downward pressure. The chart that plots the individual sectors highlights year-over-year growth rates. It shows that consumer goods output continues to contract at a pace that is not healthy. Intermediate goods output has basically been at a point of stasis for the last year. Capital goods output continues to be the only robust part of the industrial economy; it shows persistent increases in output since the first quarter of 2025.

Monthly output The monthly changes showed declines in overall industrial production of 0.5% in August. The decline in manufacturing was 0.4% in August; by sector, consumer goods output declined by 2.4% month-to-month, intermediate goods output declined by 0.8%, while capital goods increased 0.4%. Within the consumer sector, consumer durables had a small output increase of 0.2%, with nondurables output falling by 0.8% month-to-month.

Sequential growth The sequential growth rates delineate growth over 12 months, six months, and three months, showing some weakness over each of those spans, with output falling by 1.2% over 12 months, being flat over six months, and declining at a 3.6% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing shows a similar trend, with a decline of 1.6% over 12 months, a decline at a 0.2% annual rate over six months, and a decline at a 4% annual rate over three months.

By sector: The sequential growth rates show declines in consumer output over 12 months, six months, and three months, with weaker growth over three months than over 12 months. For the subsector, consumer nondurables follow the same pattern and trend; so, do intermediate goods. Capital goods are a departure. They show a 1.9% increase over 12 months, a 1.6% annualized increase over six months, and a 2.6% annual rate decline over three months. Next, the only sector showing persisting increases is durable goods within the consumer sector. It shows output up 0.2% over 12 months, rising at a 2.4% annual rate over six months, and accelerating to a 5.3% annual rate over three months. The trends that we see in the headline are echoed in most of the components, which tend to show output declines over 12 months, some moderation over six months, and then an acceleration of weakness over three months. Capital goods also break that pattern by showing persisting deceleration in output growth trends from 12 months to six months to three months.

Quarter-to-date output: QTD output is falling in all sectors except for consumer durables. The headline shows a 2.7% annual rate decline; manufacturing is at a 3.5% annual rate drop. There is still one month’s worth of data needed to fill out the third quarter.

Annual growth rate ranking: Growth rates generally are weak. We rank the growth rates on a 20-year timeline back to 2006. The headline series—total industrial production excluding construction and manufacturing—have rankings for year-over-year output growth in their 28th and 25th percentiles, respectively. Consumer goods output for the entire sector has been weaker only 1.7% of the time on this timeline, with most of that weakness due to consumer nondurables output, which has been weaker only 1.3% of the time. Consumer durable goods output is above its median with a 55.5 percentile standing. Capital goods are the only other sector above the 50th percentile, with a 51.7 percentile standing. Intermediate goods come close, with a 48.3 percentile standing, annual growth that is barely below its historic median on this timeline.

Member country trends The table also presents results for 13 European monetary union member countries and for the United Kingdom and Sweden, as fellow European economies. EMU members show an unweighted average decline across this group of countries of 0.5% for output in August, a weakening from a 0.2% median increase in July and weaker than a 0.1% median gain in June. These countries have median declines of 0.1% over 12 months, 1.5% over six months, and 5.6% over three months. Quarter-to-date, the unweighted average for the group is a 7.5% decline for manufacturing output. Also, the average rank standing for EMU manufacturing growth on the timeline from 2006, as an unweighted average, has a 44.5 percentile standing, below its historic median, which puts it below median by about 6 percentage points. The only countries above their respective medians for year-over-year growth on that timeline are the Netherlands with a 97.5 percentile standing, Greece with an 86.1 percentile standing, Malta with a 69.3 percentile standing, and Spain, whose result is right on top of its median with a 50th percentile standing. There are additional five countries with percentile standings in their 40th percentile, including Finland, Italy, France, Germany, and Austria.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Oct 14 2026
Inflation in EMU Spikes. Yikes!
The inflation chart and the table are unanimous on the inflation verdict for the European Monetary Union in September. No matter how you twist and turn it, unless you turn the chart upside down, there's no good news here on the inflation front.

A really bad month for inflation, but not a surprise, part of a trend The monthly news is bad for the aggregate data. The monetary union inflation level, for both the headline and the core readings, looks worrying. Across the four largest economies, the monthly data are quite bad for the headline figures and not very good for the core or the ex-energy readings either.

Trending higher The chart just sticks to year-over-year percentage changes. It doesn't get knee-deep in different sequential measures, but it's clear from the chart that year-over-year inflation is once again engaged in an upswing, and the year-over-year gains for each of the four largest countries are above the 2% mark that the European Central Bank has set for the community. While the ECB target is for the whole community, not for any individual country, with all four of the largest economies showing this kind of an excess, it clearly indicates bad news for the community at large.

Sequential pressure The data in the table provide information on the sequential development of inflation. There we see the headline from 12 months to six months to three months, as we shorten the horizon, with accelerating trends from 3.8% over 12 months to 4% over six months to 6.5% over three months, all annualized rates. The core is better behaved but still shows acceleration from 2.5% over 12 months to 2.7% over six months to 3% over three months. Acceleration is the watchword.

Large economies adverse trends Looking at individual members, the four largest economies show us excessive increases in September month to month, ranging from a 1% gain in Italy to a 0.5% gain in Germany. Sequential inflation shows acceleration for each of the large foreign economies, which is by itself rather disturbing, but the year-over-year rates are as low as 3.3% for Germany and as high as 5% for Spain, and with the three-month rates as low as, and let me repeat this–as low as–a 5.5% annual rate over three months in Italy and as high as a 9.1% annual rate for Spain. This is a very painful habitat for inflation over three months to range from 5.5% to 9.1% when the target is 2%.

Inflation metrics There are three metrics for inflation: headline, core inflation, and ex-energy inflation. These numbers are a little more subdued but still over the top in terms of the ECB target of 2%. The month-to-month numbers are not as chilling, with Germany showing an ex-energy increase of just 0.2% and Spain showing 0.4% at the high end in September. But the sequential numbers show 12-month gains of 2.2% inflation in Germany ex-energy, a 1.5% gain in Italy, which leaves it below the ECB’s desired pace, and a 3.1% increase over 12 months in Spain. These core or ex-energy speeds step up over six months and then step up again over three months. Acceleration is broad-based. Over three months, we see a low pace of 2.4% for Italy, a high pace of 3.7% for Spain, with Germany at 2.6%. Progressing from 12 months to six months to three months, we lose the temperate inflation in Italy, which over three months moves up over the 2% mark, and we log inflation rates of 2.6% in Germany and 3.7% in Spain. The core inflation is lower than headline inflation by a good solid margin. In each of these cases, headline inflation over three months is at least twice the core (or ex-energy) three-month pace. However, core inflation is generally more stubborn and harder to get rid of. In the case of Germany, ex-energy inflation is at 2.6%; Italy logs a 2.4% pace. Those two are not too far above the 2% target, but Spain at 3.7% is much more troublesome.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 06 2026
Composite Global PMIs Trend Higher
Expanding over all horizons based on median and average data Over the last 12 months and six months, the composite PMI data show mostly setbacks–weaker performance–across the various 25 countries and regions that report in this table. However, over no horizon is there more than 8 of the 25 reporters showing an outright decline in terms of PMI values (readings below 50). Over the recent three months, more significant advances have been recorded. Only 21.7% of the reporters show weakening in their average performance over three months compared to six months. This is a sharp contrast with 82.6% weakening over six months compared to 12 months, and even the 52.2% that shows weakening over 12 months compared to 12 months ago. The six-month comparison is a geopolitically difficult comparison.

Progress, yes – but will it endure? Progress is in gear. The last three months of month-to-month PMI readings yield median PMI values of 52.2 to 52.5 to 52.3 moving from July to September. September shows a slight backtracking, but all readings are above a diffusion value of 52. Averages show better growth transition from 52.1 to 52.4 to 52.8 on the same time sequence. Using averages we see a strengthening trend.

The US, UK, and EMU as an unweighted group also show progressive improvement. This group shows irregular improvement from 12 months to six months to three months, but the three-month diffusion average is higher than the 12-month average.

Among the 25 reporters surveyed, eleven have percentile standings over the last 4½ years of data that are below their respective medians; that’s a lot. So, there is still a considerable proportion of reporters with weak queue percentile standings on the standards of about the last five years–years that have not been terribly strong.

Summing up The good news in this report is the breadth of improvement in September, with only five reporters below a diffusion reading of 50, indicating contraction and with 60% of the reporters showing month-to-month improvement.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Sep 30 2026
Inflation Sallies Forth
Inflation has flared across the largest economies of the monetary union. The headline boost is clear. The core or ex-energy gains also are clear but are more moderate; more moderate but nonetheless excessive in September. Largely over the last three months, inflation has been percolating.

The chart shows a clear, abrupt acceleration of inflation in the three largest monetary union economies: Germany, France, and Italy. Twelve-month inflation rates for the top four economies range from 3.3% in Germany to 5.0% in Spain. Over six months, the range is 3.5% (Germany) to 6.2% (Spain). Over three months, the stakes rise sharply, with annualized inflation spurts at a high of 9.1% (Spain) vs. ‘only’ 5.5% (Italy).

Inflation accelerates from a year ago to 12 months, from 12 months to six months, and from six months to three months on all headline comparisons except for Italy from six months to three months. But even on that comparison, the downshift in the pace is minor, and three-month inflation in Italy is still stronger than 12-month inflation. The inflation pressure is rising even if the gains are not monotonic.

Core inflation is high and mostly rising as well. However, core inflation is less prone to have risen over 12 months compared to 12 months ago. On that basis, only Spain’s core inflation has risen. German ex-energy inflation steps down, and Italian core inflation drops off to a below-target 1.5% over 12 months. To restart these comparisons for the three-country inflation ranges on the core or ex-energy measures over one year, we see a range from 1.5% to 3.1%. Over six months, inflation accelerates for all three, but the low end sees Italian inflation only up to a 1.6% pace, whereas the high end at 3% is Spain. However, Spain’s strong gain marks a deceleration from its 12-month pace. Over three months, inflation kicks up its heels across the core and ex-energy measures, from a low of 2.4% in Italy to a high of 3.6% in Spain. And core inflation accelerates in all three countries over three months.

Core inflation has been slower to rise, but once it rises it tends to be more stubborn. The global push toward higher inflation is still in gear as oil prices are lingering high. Stock markets have been trying to weather the storm of high inflation and an uncertain future. All eyes are turning to the winter season even though it is only fall. Winter is cropping up to be a difficult one for Europe, with low energy stockpiles as the season approaches. There is a lot to worry about and very little we can be sure of. As aspects of the future draw nearer, we’re gaining focus on what matters, and what matters and what is under control are, increasingly, two different things.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Sep 29 2026
EU Commission Indexes Weaken in September
The EU Commission indexes weakened in September, with the overall index falling to 97.9 from 98.4 in August; however, the month's level is still stronger than recent readings prior to August (the strongest since February, excluding August). The index ranks at its 31.9 percentile on data since 1985, marking the month as below its median by a good margin. The median observation on data presented as a percentile ranking occurs at a ranking of 50%.

Monthly sector readings and perspectives The industrial reading improved month-to-month to -4 in September from -5 in August. The rise on the month lifts it just above its historic mean, and above its historic median, with a 54th percentile ranking. Consumer confidence slipped on the month to -16.5 from -15.5 in August. The consumer reading is substantially below its historic mean, which occurs at a reading of -9. The ranking for consumer confidence on the month is in its 12.4 percentile, an extremely weak reading. It has been this way for consumer confidence for some time. Even in the United States, where the economy is doing much better, readings on various consumer surveys have been exceptionally weak. The retailing assessment was unchanged at -6 in September; a reading of -6 is above its historic mean, which occurs at a value of -8. The month’s level also leaves retailing above its historic median at a standing of 56.6%. Construction was also unchanged at -5 in September; construction has been steady at -5 for a number of months in a row. Its historic mean is -15, and the -5 reading this month leaves construction at a 68.6 percentile, a quite firm level despite the negative diffusion reading. Services were also unchanged in the month at +6. Services have gotten slightly stronger in recent months. The historic mean for services is +6, so the sector is at its mean, but it is below its median, with a 39.4 percentile ranking.

Most country readings show gains on the month The reading for the overall EMU level declined in September, falling by 0.5%. In addition, seven reporting countries issued negative readings in September. Two of those countries, France and Italy, are among the four largest monetary union economies. However, the other two large EMU economies, Germany and Spain, marked improvements, with Germany rising 0.6% month-to-month in September and Spain rising 3.3% after a 2.1% decline in August.

Rankings remain overwhelmingly weak Looking at the rankings by country, among the 18 reporting countries only seven have country-specific ratings above their historic medians. Among the four largest EMU economies, only Spain is above its historic median with a 68.2 percentile ranking. Germany has a 29.6 percentile ranking, France is in its 36.9 percentile, and Italy is in its 44.8 percentile. The strongest reporting countries are small countries, with Greece posting a 73rd percentile ranking and Lithuania a 71.7 percentile ranking, followed by Spain’s 68.2 percentile ranking as the next highest reading.

Industry is back...for now It's good to see the industrial sector back up at a reading above its historic median and to be joined by retailing and construction. Retailing is a particularly rewarding sector to see performing well because consumer confidence is performing so poorly, with a 12.4 percentile standing. However, the services sector continues to lag with a 39.4 percentile standing, and that could be a problem because that's the job-creating sector for most economic units, and it's certainly true of the monetary union.

The job front On the job front, industrial employment and construction employment sectors report above 50th percentile standings in their monthly responses. With the employment in construction at a 71st percentile reading and for industry at a 68th percentile reading, we have some good news. However, for services, the employment reading is only at the 37th percentile, and that is the sector most responsible for delivering employment opportunities. Under consumer confidence, unemployment expectations have a 64.6 percentile standing, nearly a top one-third reading on that gauge. The U.S. economy is doing much better than the European economy; yet, there too, consumer confidence readings are weak, very weak. But the U.S. economy is growing strongly, and Europe continues to grow as well; a lack of confidence so far has not been an impediment to growth. As we can see so far this month, the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, seems to be doing relatively better; however, everything is at risk due to events in the Middle East. Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and what happens to oil prices are critical to what happens next. In addition, there's a great deal of concern about Europe and its low stocks of heating oil as winter approaches. The monthly readings from the EU indexes showed a step back on the month, but that was after the sharp improvement a month ago. In general, the European economy is doing a little bit better, with sectors in an upswing more so than they had previously, but conditions remain substantially touch-and-go, dependent on unforeseeable events.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Finland| Sep 28 2026
Finland’s Confidence Erodes Only Slightly
Confidence across business sectors and consumers stepped back slightly in September in Finland. However, the overwhelming trend result is that business sector confidence is on an upswing; consumer confidence has undergone some slight weakening to its trend recently, led by some deterioration in its macro-indicator.

The monthly setbacks in September were relatively small, while the changes in confidence show improvement in the averages over three months compared to six months for all the sectors except retailing where the step-back is a single point to an average of 20 over three months from an average of 21 over six months. However, the retail sector is an exception and also shows a substantial step-down in September compared to August to a level that is going to point to a further deterioration in the moving averages ahead. But that phenomenon seems to be limited to retailing.

Manufacturing confidence holds steady with low single-digit positive readings over three months, six months, and 12 months. The September level has a 75.1 percentile standing, which is quite solid. Sector readings generally display this same phenomenon; construction is an exception as its headline readings are negative; however, they're improving more substantially. The retailing readings have been improving from 12 months to three months, based on the averages, until the recent drop-off in September.

The consumer sector shows consistently mild negative readings, and they have decayed slightly. The consumer sector is the only one with a current queue standing that ranks data back to 2007 below its historic median, meaning below a ranking of 50%. The consumer sector ranking in September is at 48.1%, marginally below its median. The other sectors have rankings generally in their mid-70th percentile, with the exception being construction, which has a 69.3 percentile standing. All of those are quite solid.

Finland’s business sector and consumer rankings as well as their within-sector readings are, for the most part, firm. The line item for the order book level in construction has a below-median standing in September; however, that reading has been improving smartly from 12 months to six months to three months. Expected sales in services register a 49.2 percentile standing, below their median; that reading has been dead solid at 15 over 12 months, six months, and three months.

The consumer sector shows some of the weakest readings (not shown here). Some of that traces to expected high consumer price inflation that has an 81.9 percentile standing in the consumer survey. While the overall threat to unemployment in that survey is above median at a 56th percentile standing, that generic overall concern does not translate into individual concerns as a separate reading on the personal threat to unemployment is quite low at a 17th percentile standing.

On the whole, the business and consumer readings for Finland are good and for the most part quite solid, with the need to keep an eye on the responses in retailing and perhaps also in the consumer sector, largely because of what appears to be the impact of inflation on the consumer psyche.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 25 2026
Money Supply Growth Slows Except in the U.S.
Globally, money growth is easing but the U.S. has become an exception to global trends.

In the EMU, money growth has been slowing within the last year as 12-month growth at 4.3% turns to 2.8% over six months and to 2.4% over three months. In addition, speaking more broadly, the three-month and six-month growth rates are slower than the cumulative pace over three years and two years.

The performance of credit growth in the EMU runs along very similar lines, with greater easing within the 12-month span and growth being broadly weaker over three months and six months than over the last two years and three years cumulatively.

EMU money growth in real terms—real money balances—show not just slower growth but contraction over both three months and six months. They show a broad slowing, with some irregularity compared to longer periods.

The U.K. is not a clear read on money trends, but its three-month nominal growth rate is weaker although there is a small pickup over 12 months and six months compared to previous periods. U.K. real money balances also show contraction over three months but have speeded up over six months and 12 months from very weak rates of growth in their performance in earlier periods.

Japan shows clear slowing in nominal growth from 12 months on. Its recent growth rates are slower than its already slow rates over two years and three years. Japan’s real balance growth also shows real balance contraction over three months and six months as well as more broadly.

The U.S. is an outlier, with slightly weaker three-month nominal growth but with accelerations over 12 months and six months, and with three-month growth that is stronger than over the longer horizons of two years and three years. Growth in real money balances in the U.S. has accelerated and is accelerating within the last year and over the longer horizon as well. U.S. real balance performance shows monetary stimulus running flat-out, marking the U.S. as a clear monetary outlier.

While tracking and relying on monetary signals has fallen “out of fashion,” a lot of that is because of monetary innovation. It is not clear that the finding that U.S. real balances are accelerating should be treated as a benign event. Money growth in the U.S. is strong in real and nominal terms.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
United Kingdom| Sep 24 2026
U.K. Retail Sales Come Up Lame in September
BOE Decision to Hold Rates in the Face of Inflation Seems Prescient While inflation continued to be a problem as the Bank of England had its last policy meeting, the BOE decided to hold the line on the policy rate despite a slightly worse inflation report than expected just prior to the meeting of the central bank committee. One reason was that inflation, which was flaring because of pressure on oil prices, had not been spreading in the economy. The BOE didn't see a reason to raise interest rates to stop a spread that wasn't occurring, and the MPC knew there was no reason to raise interest rates to roll back oil prices because interest rates would have no effect on oil prices, which were rising globally for completely different reasons.

The decision to hold off on interest rates is certainly further justified as the CBI retail sales report for September shows a worsening in sales compared to a year ago, a worsening in orders, a worsening of sales for time of year, and a small pickup in the level of stocks that is arguably involuntary.

The changes on the month are in fact severe, and not technical, with sales compared to a year ago falling to -55 in September from -48 in August, while orders compared to a year ago posted a net reading of -62, down from -29, more than doubling their previous negative value. Sales for the time of year also fell severely to a net reading of -40 in September from -26 in August. These are massive changes in already negative numbers on a monthly basis.

The percentile standings for these values are also extremely low. Orders compared to a year ago are at the lowest value seen in data since December 2001. Sales compared to a year ago have been weaker only 1% of the time. Sales compared to what they normally do this time of year have a 4.4 percentile standing; they are weaker, less than 5% of the time. While the inventory number crawled higher, it has a 21.1 percentile standing. None of these figures inspire any confidence as to the shape of the consumer. And the outlook doesn’t get better either.

A survey of expectations also shows severe deterioration, not just deterioration, for October compared to September. Sales, compared to a year ago, dropped to a net value of -37 in October from -22 in September, carving out a 6.4 percentile standing, another extremely weak standing, this time for expected sales. Orders compared to a year ago logged a reading of -63 in October compared to -40 in September; this is another very sharp deterioration in view of severe weakness the month before. It’s another all-time low for the reading on data since December 2001. Sales for the time of year weakened to a reading of -39 in October from -29 in September, creating a 4.3 percentile standing, yet another bottom 5% standing, this time for expected sales for the time of year.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief