Introducing

Robert Brusca

Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

Publications by Robert Brusca

Germany| Mar 06 2024
German Trade Surpluses Rising- Exports and Imports on an Upswing
German trade showed a monthly supply widening to €27.5bln from €23.3bln in December. Goods exports advanced by a strong 6.3% month-to-month in January as imports also rose by a strong 3.6% even though imports trailed exports by a large margin.

However, those are simply monthly data and monthly trade figures ae quite volatile. The table also offers perspective with 12-month, 6-month and 3-month growth rates also presented. On that profile, exports show strong acceleration in train with the 12-month growth at 0.3%, moving up over six months and culminating in a very strong 23% annualized pace over three months. Import trends do not exhibit their monthly strength of January sequentially. Imports fall by 8.3% over 12 months, fall slightly more slowly over six months, and then trim that pace of decline to -6.2% over three months.

The German export progression speaks of a recovering global economy. We have seen the Global PMI data stabilizing and slightly improving in recent months. Germany exports are rising on the back of that development. But German imports are contracting and doing so over each of these horizons.

Import weakness reflects the weakness in Germany’s economy. A new forecast from the IFO underscores the reality of that weakness. The IFO outlook sharply downgrades its own previous prediction for German growth. The institute trimmed growth outlook for this year to 0.2 percent from 0.9 percent. Its projection for 2025 was lifted somewhat to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent.

The IFO offers up a melting pot of reasons explaining why the outlook is for further weakness. The IFO warns that there has been consumer restraint, high interest rates, government austerity in Germany, and a weak global economy in addition the higher prices brought by inflation have combined to damp growth and reduce the IFO outlook. Still, the IFO looks for inflation to slow and drop back into its target in 2025.

The table offers up-to-date nominal export and import figures as well as a spectrum of more detailed export and import trends as well as data expressed in real terms. For comparison, the table offers one-month lagged real data along side the more detailed lagged nominal data.

The sequential growth of the lagged nominal data vs. the unlagged data show a huge differences as three-month export growth runs at a 23% annual rate, but when lagged by one-month that some growth rate drops to -4.2%. The view of exports strengthening sharply is a very new phenomenon. The same comparison with imports also shows much weaker import growth on a lagged basis. When we look at the real flows near the bottom of the table, we find the real export and export trends mirror closely the lagged nominal data referred to above. The real data do not embrace the same degree of rebound and growth as the up-to-date nominal data at this time.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 05 2024
Composite PMIs Mostly Improve
Composite global PMIs in February show more widespread improvement than deterioration. Only 6 of 24 reporting jurisdictions show composite PMIs below 50 indicating contraction. Only 36% of the reporters are slowing in February, month-to-month; that compares to 40% in January, and 36% in December.

If we look at the average tendencies over three months, six months, and 12 months, we see that the number of jurisdictions contracting varies between 7 and 10 over these three horizons. Looking at the tendency for slowing over 12 months 56.5% of the reporters slow compared to 12-months ago, over six months 87% slow compared to their values over 12 months, and over three months only 30.4% slow compared to their values over six months. There's a clear tendency for global composite PMI readings to improve.

The data show that the advanced economies are most uniformly getting better; the most advanced economies are the top panel of the table. Of the six jurisdictions, five of them are getting better in February, six are getting better in January. Over three months all six of them are getting better and this is after all six of them worsened over six months.

However, there is also more consistent weakness among the developing economies particularly for the Monetary Union, for Germany, and for France. For those 3 jurisdictions, the readings are persistently below 50 over the last three months as well as over three months on average, six months, and 12 months. Italy has some sporadic readings below 50; Spain keeps its composite readings above 50 on all those timelines; the U.S., also among the advanced economies, has readings above 50 on all those horizons. The only other group that shows the preponderance of readings below 50 is a scattering of countries in Africa: Zambia, Egypt, and Kenya.

The queue standings that rank these current standings over data from the last four years show persistent positive rankings below the 50th percentile for four of the six advanced economies in the top panel; these include the U.S., the Monetary Union, Germany, and France. Again, only Africa has a clustering of values that are below the 50-percentile mark and those include Zambia, Ghana, Egypt, and Nigeria. Qatar, a Middle Eastern nation, also has a standing below its 50th percentile.

Groupings of countries show the overall averages have been slightly improving over the last three months logging an average of 52.0 in February. The medians have been improving as well and the group median logs a value of 51.3 in February from 12-months to three-months to six-months. The progression is mixed for the average and there is increased weakness on that timeline for the median.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Switzerland| Mar 04 2024
Switzerland Shows the Way Ahead for Low Inflation
Swiss inflation both headline and core as well as HICP and its own domestic index (core and headline as well) have been showing sub-2% inflation for a quite a string of months. HICP inflation is 2% or less for the last seven months in a row with only one exception (2.1% in December). HICP core inflation, not yet available for February, is below 2% for five months in a row with no exceptions. The Swiss domestic inflation headline is below 2% for nine months in a row while core inflation on that index is below 2% for 10 months running. Of course, inflation in Switzerland is ‘always low.’ Over the past 18 years, inflation has averaged 0.5% with a median of 0.3%. While Switzerland is a success story to the rest of the world, Swiss inflation is still in the high side for, well, Switzerland.

These low rates of inflation are on the year-on-year gauge: no funny business- no three-month or six-month calculations and no disregarding special categories to engineer a 2% touch-down as some are trying to do in the U.S. Switzerland gets there with an unemployment rate at 2.2% in January. That unemployment rate is among the lowest 13% of all unemployment rates reported back to the year 2000.

Switzerland is proof that inflation can get back to normalcy. Of course, Swiss inflation had only peaked at 3.3% and its unemployment rate peaked at 3.5%. Switzerland had a much more muted Covid cycle than either the EMU or the U.S. And one cautionary note might be that Swiss unemployment bottomed one year ago and is currently engaged in a very modest up-creep, but an up-creep, nonetheless. The unemployment rate is still below the steady pace it had adhered to before Covid struck in 2019.

Inflation trends in Switzerland are on an accelerating trend but a slight one. Over 3 months, inflation accelerates in two-thirds of the categories in the table, according to diffusion calculations. Over 6 months, we find neutrally as inflation accelerates in only half of the categories; over 12 months, inflation is still broadly decelerating with acceleration present compared to the year-ago pace in only 16.7% of the categories – a marginal proportion.

Monthly inflation shows equivocation with the December diffusion rate at 58.3% (above 50% more categories are accelerating than decelerating), January is at 41.7%, and February’s diffusion is back at 58.3%. Over those recent months, we see some tendency for acceleration to become more prevalent than deceleration. However, this is happening with overall inflation at a very low pace: a 0.4% gain in December- that one is uncomfortable. But that is followed by a flat January and a rise in February of just 0.1% month-to-month. The compounded annualized pace over this three-month period has been just 2%.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 01 2024
MFG PMIs Largely Improve in February
The S&P Global manufacturing PMIs are showing more improvement than deterioration in February. 11 countries in the table show improvement month-to-month while 6 show deterioration. The median reading in February is a PMI value of 50 which is right on the cusp of showing declines in manufacturing. That reading compares to readings of 49 over three months, and six months vs. a reading of 48.8 over 12 months.

In February, 61.1% of the respondents show improvement month-to-month. Over three months, 77.8% show improvement compared to six-months; over six months 72.2% show improvement compared to 12-months; over 12 months 50% show improvement compared to one-year ago. What we see from these metrics is that manufacturing has been on an improving path even though the three-, six-, and 12-month readings linger below the neutral 50% mark.

The queue standings position the February reading in each case among the last four years of monthly observations for each reporting unit. Mexico and Russia show the highest percentile standings on the data they report; Russia is showing a standing in its 98th percentile. Mexico reports a 94th percentile standing. The weakest standings are in Japan that has a 10-percentile standing, China that has a 13.3 percentile standing, and Germany that has a 14-percentile standing. The median standing among all the countries in the table is at the 47th percentile mark which is below ‘50’ telling us that the median reading for this cross section of countries a generally a reading below the individual reporters’ medians over the last four years.

In terms of the averages for various groupings of countries, the U.S., U.K., European Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan show general improvements. The average PMI manufacturing values from a year ago through February show that three-month, six-month, and 12-month values don't show much change, but there is a more significant improvement in February. The BRIC countries also show stasis for the most part for three-, six-, and 12-months, a little more significant move up in February. The Asian average follows that same pattern. In terms of the percentile standings, the more highly developed countries have the lower standing. The U.S., U.K., EMU, Canada, and Japan group is the weakest; Asia occupies a middle ground on the average ranking, and the BRIC countries have the highest percentile queue standings at about the 65th percentile.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Feb 29 2024
Japan’s IP Falls Hard in January
Weakness is broad across sectors Japan’s industrial production fell hard in January, dropping 7.4% (month-to-month!) after rising 1.2% in December; the December gain followed a drop of 1.3% in November. Japan's industrial output has been unstable for a number of months: manufacturing production has fallen month-to-month in 11 of the last 16 months. During that span, there was only one episode of industrial production rising month-to-month in consecutive months and one of those two months was an extremely small gain of only 0.1%. The changes in industrial output have been choppy during this span. The last five monthly increases in industrial production averaged a month-to-month rise of 2.6% while the last 11 declines averaged a month-to-month drop of 2.1%. These are extremely volatile numbers, and it makes it very hard to pin down an exact pattern for industrial production except that the preponderance of declines makes it clear that the direction is lower, and the speed is ‘too-fast.’

The table makes it clear that there are declines in industrial production over three months, six months and 12 months for all the categories in the table with one single exception - that is transportation output over 12 months. And the progression is to faster and faster declines with exception of utilities output over the last three months that fell at ‘only’ a 5.6% annual rate while declining at an annual rate of 13.8% of six months.

In the quarter-to-date, industrial production is falling overall in manufacturing and in each category at astonishingly strong paces; even utilities output is falling at a double-digit rate early in the first quarter at a 12% annual rate of decline.

The authorities are giving guidance for some recovery in industrial production ahead although that's not particularly reassuring. After such sharp declines, Japan is really staring in the eye a great deal of weakness.

In addition to that, there's not anything queued up that is boosting industrial production in any obvious way for the road ahead.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Feb 28 2024
EU Index Erodes; Germany Lags; Questions Are Raised...
In February, the European Commission economic sentiment index from the monetary union declined to 95.4 from January’s 96.1, a surprise development. This drops the reading below even its December level but above its November level. Declines are logged in three of five sectors with the industrial sector, the retail sector, and the services sector, each weakening month-to-month. The construction assessment was unchanged between January and February while consumer confidence increased to a -15.5 reading in February from -16.1 in January.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Feb 27 2024
Money Growth Weakness Begins to Abate in EMU As Well As Globally
Money and Credit in EMU- Money growth rates in the European Monetary Union are starting to show clear acceleration although the move higher is moderate. M2 growth in the Monetary Union shows a decline of 1.2% over 12 months, an increase of 0.3% at an annual rate over six months, and a 1.2% annual rate increase over three months-- a clear moderate accelerating pattern. Credit to residents in the Monetary Union continues to waffle as it declines over 12 months and three months but manages an uptick over six months; private credit shows the same pattern.

Real balances in EMU- Real money balances that reflect money supply indexed for the effects of inflation also shows a tendency to move higher although it is still contracting on all horizons. Real money growth declines at a 3.9% annual rate over 12 months, declines at a 1.9% annual rate over six months, and declines at a 1% annual rate over three months. Real credit to residents in real terms shows no clear pattern but declines on the order of 2% to 3% over three months to 12 months. The same is true for real private credit.

Global money trends- Real money balances in the Monetary Union have been declining over the last three years, the same pattern is pretty much true for the U.S., the U.K., Japan, and the other major monetary center countries. U.S. and U.K. monetary growth are calculated through December rather than January because they are not yet updated. For both the U.S. and the U.K., real balances do not decline over the most recent three-month period. U.K. real balances are flat; U.S. balances increased at a 0.2% annual rate, a very small rate of increase. Only Japan, among the major monetary center countries, shows flirtation with growth in real balances even over the three years. Over three years Japan real balances grow by 0.6%; over two years they fall by 0.6%; over 12 months they rise by 0.2%; over six months they fall a 0.5% annual rate; over three months real Japan money balances are growing at a 1.7% annual rate.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
United Kingdom| Feb 26 2024
U.K. Retail-Is It Recovery or Just Volatility?
The Confederation of British Industry Survey of retailing and wholesaling showed that retail and wholesaling sales declines slowed sharply in the U.K. in February.

Retailing Retail sales compared to a year ago were at a -7 reading in February, compared to -50 in January and -32 in December. This is a sharp improvement compared to the numbers sales had been posting; however, it is still in the lower 26-percentile of monthly reported metrics since 2000. But it is also the fifth largest month-to-month improvement on that that timeline of 284 monthly changes reported since mid-2000. This is a sharp monthly gain but still a very weak number. Orders compared to a year ago locked-in another declining figure at -14 in February, but again it was sharply better than the -36 logged in January and the -54 in December. Orders compared to a year ago have a 22.5 percentile standing. Sales, for the time of year, also improved sharply, logging a -1 reading in February compared to -47 in January and -25 in December. Sales, for the time of year, moved up above their median for this timeline to log a percentile standing in the 61st percentile. The month-to-month gain was sharp, ranking as the sixth largest change in the month-to-month survey value since mid-2000. On ranked data, the median occurs at a ranking at the 50th percentile. The reading for stocks rose slightly to 17 in February from 15 in January and also has a rank standing above its historic median, which is a standing at its 56th percentile.

Expectations March expectations for retail sales compared to a year ago also improved sharply- still logging a negative figure at -15 in March compared to -50 in February and -41 in January. However, the reading had been as strong as -6 in December of last year. Still, the month-to-month jump in the survey is the fourth largest month-to-month change in the survey value on data back to mid-2000. The ‘sales for a year-ago’ figure, despite its extraordinarily sharp improvement from February and January, still has a lower 13th percentile standing when placed in their historic queue of ranked data. Orders, for the time of year, were not much changed from February, logging another deeply negative number at -36 in March compared to -35 in February and -29 in January. The standing for the March reading is in its lower 5.6 percentile, an extremely weak reading. This is the one category that occupies a middle ground standing and does not have a strong monthly improvement. Expected orders are weak and have been bottom-scraping and weak for the last three to four months in a row. These survey responses are perplexing. On one hand, we are seeing ‘near record’ improvement month-to-month in several important categories but are still left with what are generally quite weak readings in the aftermath of those sharp improvements.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Feb 23 2024
Germany’s IFO Confidence Measure Weakens in February
The German IFO diffusion survey weakened broadly in February. The index survey is over 5 industries plus provides an overall all-sector reading and applies itself to three venues: climate, current conditions, and expectations. We assess the readings on these 3 broad environments across the five industries on data back to 1991 and on that basis only one reading out of 18 has a standing above its median. That reading is under current conditions and the sector is construction. The construction standing; its 53.7th percentile standing places it barely above its historic median; the median on ranked data occurs at the 50th percentile mark.

Turning to the three broad areas that are surveyed, the all-sector standing for climate in February is at its 5.7 percentile. The All-sector standing for current conditions is at its 11.7th percentile and the all-sector standing for expectations is at its 9.1 percentile. In all three of these environments the readings are exceptionally weak. The climate is weak, the current conditions are weak, and they've been weak for a prolonged period. Despite that extended weakness, there continues to be weakness in expectations. This extended period of weakness has not been used successfully to repair the view of the future.

Far right-hand columns, in addition to the long-dated percentile standing column, present a column determining changes in these various metrics since January of 2020 just before COVID struck. None of the 18 readings is higher than it was in January 2020. The all-sector summary statistic for climate is lower by 24 points, for current conditions it's lower by 29 points and expectations are lower by 17 points. In all cases the stepdown compared to the pre COVID period is quite substantial. This means all these German metrics continue to run substantially below their performance of four year ago.

The far-right hand column of this table ranks data on a different timeline from the period just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The three venues show conditions are weak across the board although they are starting to see some stabilization on expectations. The all-sector climate index is at its low point right now at a ranking of 0. Current conditions have a ranking of 4%, extremely low and rarely lower. However, expectations have a ranking at the 48th percentile. This reading is close to the median - and recall that these statistics are being generated only since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, so this is still a period in which the readings are going to be low - the assessment is that in February expectations are still hovering at the median for this period. And that's better than the other functional assessments for current conditions and climate by a long shot.

The chart gives us a means to understand this. If you look at the plot for the three functional surveys for climate, current conditions, and expectations note that at the very time of the invasion expectations fell very sharply immediately, while current condition and climate readings continued to erode somewhat slowly. Expectations fell to a low point and have hovered there persistently near that low, while current conditions and climate have proceeded to erode as time has passed.

The IFO survey does not paint much of an optimistic picture for this month period conditions continue to be quite weak and then the current conditions framework only services improved month-to-month. Expectations continue to show extremely low net negative readings across industries with only minor change. Climate weakened month-to-month I February except in three industries, those being construction, services, and wholesaling but only to a very minor extent. There is little reason for optimism in the wake of this survey.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
France| Feb 22 2024
French Industry Climate Improves Production Outlook Weakens
Climate improved for industry in February. Manufacturing production expectations nonetheless weakened in February falling to -8.1 from -7.0 in January.

The recent trend for production is a net negative reading in February but it is improved from its weaker reading in January. The own-industry likely trend is assessed as stronger in February, that metric is the respondents’ assessment for the performance of his own industry, but that one too is weaker in February than in January. Both are below their historic means.

Orders and demand are a net negative in February, that reading is still above its historic mean. Orders and demand in February are slightly stronger than in January. Foreign orders improved in February and are well above their historic average.

The own prices and manufacturing prices overall weakened in February. Both are substantially weaker than a year ago, as well as below historic means.

Evaluated over the sample period back to 2001 all entries in the table are weak, below their historic medians, (a ranking of 50); foreign orders are the exception, they have a high 72nd percentile standing.

Foreign demand is an important factor supporting the French economy. Domestically the economy is struggling and politically dealing with farm protests. European conditions remain touch and go with the war on its door-step and new pressures to generate support for Ukraine while the US sorts out where it will stand in the middle of a political impasse.

The recent trends and expectations for production have weak standing and momentum. The good news is that inflation has weak momentum and a low standing, too. It is being driven back. The ECB is determined to reduce it further. A recent ECB communication has deemed the greater risk to be the risk of turning to ease too soon. Like in the US at the 11th hour central bankers in Europe may finally be waking up to the idea that reducing inflation from extremely elevated levels can be done but getting it all the way back down to target is more difficult and will require a more concerted effort. For a while it appeared that central bankers would be willing to cruise with inflation in an uncomfortable zone still above target. Now maybe they are deciding that they really need to get to their target values sooner rather than later. However, the state of the French economy is a reminder as to why this is difficult. The French economy is weak and in recession. It wants interest rate help. Markets have been looking for rate reductions for some time. But central banks had been so reluctant to hike rates further when inflation peaked, that they are left with inflation progress to proceed slowly, and this could also mean lingering high rates to go the final mile on inflation progress. This is not what markets want now. But it is a reminder that policy choices that seem to avoid the hard policy options, often wind up paying the piper in a different way that may also turn out to be painful.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
United Kingdom| Feb 21 2024
UK Orders, Export Orders, and Inflation Jump Sharply in February
UK industrial orders (CBI Survey) jumped to -20 in February from -30 in January. The jump put orders back at their 12-month average (-21). Orders had been slipping steadily with averages over 12-months at -21 over 6-months at -25 and 3-Mo at -24 (or -29 as of one month ago). This month’s rebound not only boosts the 3-Mo average reading, but it takes the current month sharply higher breaking the cycle of deterioration.

Export orders were similarly impacted with a -21 average over 12-months and -24 over six-months. That average is cut to -21 over three months in February but last month the 3-month average was a much weaker -27. This month’s surge in export orders has turned around the deterioration for export orders as well.

Still, total orders only rank in their 35th percentile among order data back to 1992. Export orders are relatively stronger in February at a 55.6 percentile standing, above their historic median on data back to 1992. That is somewhat surprising given the widespread weakness in Europe. Part of the reason is that about 12% of UK exports go to the US where growth is performing much better. Still, the UK’s top 25 export markets account for 54% of UK exports that go to Europe.

Stocks of finished goods on hand weaken on the month falling to +11 from +18 in January and are now not much different from their average over 3-months, 6-months, and 12-months.

The outlook for output volume over the next 3-months slipped from +7 in January to +4 in February but the +4 reading, while a step back, is consistent with the past averages. Output expectations are in their lower third historic ranking at a 33.5 percentile standing, weaker than export orders on a standing basis but in line with total orders.

Pricing is a surprise...prices were last higher than this in July of last year. Prices had slipped to a reading of +7 in December and +9 in January but have now jumped in February to +17. This compares to a 12-Month average of 15, and three-month and six-month averages at +11. The UK has been showing inflation progress that has been substantial and ongoing in terms of the Consumer index followed and targeted by the Bank of England. The CBI survey reading suggests there has been a sharp reversal for industrial prices in February. Globally goods prices have been weak along with the manufacturing sector. But now CBI industrial prices’ standing has been boosted to their 77th percentile, a reading that is quite firm and bordering on "strong".

The UK survey is a mixed report in February largely because of the inflation reading. Orders show some welcome rise is in progress. Expected output backed-off some of the recent acceleration but remains around recent average levels that show weak expansion. However, prices are sharply higher. With the UK registering recession now and the Bank of England focused on getting control of inflation, this pop in the CBI inflation survey metric is unwelcome news.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Netherlands| Feb 21 2024
Dutch Confidence Improves but Remains Deeply Negative
Dutch confidence in February improved to -27 from -28, a ‘small-potatoes’ gain mired in still-deeply net negative readings. The climate reading did worse, falling to -41 in February from -39 in January. But the willingness to buy improved to -17 from -20.

So, what do these index numbers really mean? We can first compare them to historic readings back to 1990. On that basis the three metrics are closely bunched in terms of their ranking. The queue percentile standings that evaluate each index number compared to its own history on this same time-line back to 1990 find them all at a standing ranking from the 18th-percentile to the 22nd percentile. That’s a tight bunching and a set of readings in approximately the lower one fifth of their historic queue of values. A lower 20th percentile reading is weak.

The progression of changes over 12-months to 6-months to 3-months shows a fairly steady increase over different periods (if you were to put them on a common per-month or per 12-month change basis). This is reinforced in the chart where there seems to be a liner progression higher that is relatively stable.

This means the confidence metrics are improving and doing so steadily but also quite slowly.

The table also provides change data back to just before Covid ran loose. The changes show all three metrics net lower on balance from their respective readings on January 2020. The climate variable has worsened the most followed by confidence overall with the willingness to buy metric seeing the smallest short-fall of the bunch. When it comes to shopping never underestimate the consumer. Shopping is a birthright, a palliative when things go wrong, it is a habit hard to stop even when the consumer has no money. As long as there is credit, there is shopping. Amen. No wonder willingness to buy is the least affected metric here, since Covid.

The Dutch economy is still struggling. Industrial production in manufacturing, like confidence, is trimming its year-on year negatives and is improving- but still declining on balance.

The Dutch manufacturing PMI survey moved up sharply in January but still did not quite climb all the way back to the neutral reading of 50.

Retail spending is also falling on balance over 12-months, but again, those 12-month declines have been diminishing as time has passed.

The evidence on the Dutch economy is that there is some progress being made but it is razor thin and slow. Of course, the outlook is brightened by the diminishing inflation rate in EMU and the added flexibility that will give the ECB in making policy looking ahead. Still, current conditions are negative on balance but still roughly stable while undergoing a snail’s pace repair. A call for hedged optimism is appropriate.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief