Retail sales are clearly damaged goods in the Euro Area. The drop in February sales was not expected. Two months into the new quarter retail sales volume growth is dead flat. Trend spending growth shows all negative numbers but the [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Apr 03 2008European Consumer Spending Weakens in February
- Global| Apr 02 2008
EMU PPI Trends Press Higher…
PPI trends are decidedly poor in the Euro Area. The core PPI excluding energy is on the rise with its three-month pace at 5.1% up from 3.9% over six months and from 3.6% over 12 months. This sort of acceleration in the ex-energy rate [...]
- Global| Apr 01 2008
European Economic Data Hits Blow Hot and Cold: This Time Cold: German Retail Sales
While German unemployment fell more than expected in March there has been no relief to German retailers or by association consumers. The growth rate series in the chart is remarkable for its tranquility. German real retail sales are [...]
- Global| Mar 28 2008
Japan’s Inflation Rate Rises but ‘Core’ Still Below Zero Y/Y
Japan has been gradually making progress toward ridding itself of its chronic deflation. Headline inflation now has turned positive year-over-year and is positive over three months as well as over the six-month horizon. The 12-month [...]
- Global| Mar 27 2008
Japan Retail Sales Show Some Life in January and Give it Back in February
Japanese retail sales strengthened late in 2007 but are giving those gains back in Q1 2008. Inflation adjusted retail sales fell by 1% in February 2008, unwinding the 0.8% gain in January. In the quarter-to-date real retail sales are [...]
- Global| Mar 27 2008
French Service Sector Continues to Lose Momentum
The climate indicator for France’s Service sector noted lower by one point in March continuing a slip that began in mid-2007. The index now stands in the 77th percentile of its range of values since 2000. The climate outlook is weaker [...]
- Global| Mar 26 2008
French Production Trend is Lower but Optimism is Intact
The chart on the left shows that price trends continue to press higher in France but the production trend is sharply lower. For total industry we find similar results to those in manufacturing. The recent trend of production at -11 is [...]
- Global| Mar 26 2008
Biz Confidence Sinks Further in Italy
Italy’s Business confidence gauge from ISAE edged lower in March to 89 from 89.6 in February. The pace of its decline, however, seems to have slowed (see the blue line in accompanying chart). Overall confidence is not in terrible [...]
- Global| Mar 26 2008
Germany’s IFO Index Turns Up…Again
The IFO headline index rose to 104.08 in March from 103.1 in February. This rise marks the third straight increase from a low of 103 in December 2007. It comes at a time that the euro is moving relentlessly higher and policymakers are [...]
- Global| Mar 26 2008
EMU Orders Rise in January but Trends Point Lower
It may not be resiliency as much as volatility as the rise in January EMU orders still shows growth rates steadily declining from 12 months to 6 months to 3 months. In the current quarter despite the bump up in January orders are only [...]
- Global| Mar 24 2008
Italy Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence Sag
Italy’s retail sales edged up in January, rising by 0.2% in nominal terms, likely a decline in volume terms given the recent pace of inflation. Over the past three months, sales values fell at a 0.4% annual rate. And, overall value [...]
- Global| Mar 21 2008
Italy’s Consumer Confidence Erodes
The chart on the left shows that consumer confidence has been weaker briefly in 2004 and then again back in 1994. But at the pace that confidence is falling it may be there soon. Italy’s Sentiment indicator is in the bottom 6% of its [...]
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