The economy watcher’s index is dropping rapidly and so is the future index. Each of them is at a relative low point in its five year range in the low 40th percentile of it. The weakness in these survey indexes is set in the table [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Nov 08 2007Japan's Economy Watcher's Index on a Decline
- Global| Nov 08 2007
Japan Orders Remain Weak
Japan’s machinery orders do show some improvement in the pattern for sequential growth rates for core orders. That series omits the most volatile components of the orders series. Still the current readings remain negative (m/m 3-mo, [...]
- Global| Nov 07 2007
German Mfg IP Turns its Trend Higher Unexpectedly
Most recent German reports have shown some weakening trends especially the new industrial orders. But in September IP itself was strong even as the outlook was weakening. The strength in output is mostly in capital goods where output [...]
- Global| Nov 06 2007
EMU Retail Sales Remain Sluggish
EMU-13 retail sales are up by a smaller than expected 0.3% in September. The previous month was revised higher by 0.7% but we still find EMU retail sales on a weak trend, with a hint of pick-up. French sales have been weakening while [...]
- Global| Nov 06 2007
EMU PPI on an Accelerating Trend…
The ex-energy PPI is not showing the same acceleration as the headline and is in fact decelerating across the main countries except for the UK, an EU country. If we look at the sequential growth rates by product in the table we find [...]
- Global| Nov 02 2007
PMIs in MFG are All Losing Momentum… but Still Showing Growth
Is the thrill gone?EMU indexes stand more or less mid range. In October the MFG PMIs are losing momentum. The chart on the left shows the year-over-year percentage drops in the levels of the index for key EMU countries. Although the [...]
- Global| Nov 02 2007
EU Registrations Up in August but Still with Challenged Trend
Car registrations rose in the EU by 1.9% in August, their second monthly gain in a row. Still, sales trends are uncertain after some real volatility from February through July. Except for a real spike in July flanked by two severe [...]
- Global| Nov 01 2007
UK Manufacturing Survey Turns Lower
The CIPS/NTC index of MFG for the UK shows a rather rapid downturn is in play. But the index reading at 52.9 is still reasonably upbeat by the historic standards of this survey. While the index is down from a peak of about 56 in [...]
- Global| Nov 01 2007
UK Distributive Trade Sector Shows a Slowdown
The UK distributive trades survey shows a slowing of the UK economy. Sales are at a +13 from a year ago and at +7 for this time of year (Chart). Each of those figures is about at the midpoint of their respective ranges. Orders at -1 [...]
- Global| Oct 31 2007
German Retail Sales Show Unexpected Lift
German retail sales rose in September with downward revision to the earlier month showing a strong 2.3% rise in real ex-auto sales. The series is up by 5.1% from one year ago, a pretty good Yr/Yr rise. But in the third quarter this [...]
- Global| Oct 31 2007
UK Consumer Confidence Stays in a Downdraft
UK consumer confidence fell in October after dropping sharply in September. The index now resides in the lower 15 percentile of its range - a very poor standing. But the index is not without its paradoxes. Consumers rate their [...]
- Global| Oct 31 2007
Sentiment Slips but Flash Inflation Flares
Flash flare does not seem to be part of trend Wake up call or wrong number? The survey on flash inflation for the EMU region does not appear to be part of a trend. Indeed with the euro rising, the only real impulse to inflation right [...]
- of350Go to 325 page