In this week's letter, we examine monetary developments in Asia. In particular, we take stock of the latest decisions by central banks in the region and delve into the possible motivations behind them. We find that while the Fed's policy trajectory remains a key policy focus, their recent actions have also been driven by domestic factors. Furthermore, we also find their policy priorities to be wide-ranging, with some aiming for currency stability, while inflation remains the focal point for others.
In Japan, recent bouts of yen appreciation have fueled speculation about potential currency intervention by the authorities. Also, the Bank of Japan’s latest summary of opinions indicates an unexpected shift from some members towards a more hawkish stance. In South Korea, persistently high inflation and potential improvements to Q2 GDP growth serve as reasons for the central bank to keep rates higher for longer. In Indonesia, the central bank’s recent surprise rate hike has drawn attention to its focus on currency stability and its broad range of policy tools. In Thailand, the central bank remains committed to maintaining its policy rates, despite ongoing governmental pressure for looser policy. Finally, in Malaysia, we acknowledge the central bank's consistent approach to policy rates and explore recent developments concerning the ringgit.
Japan The yen experienced sudden bouts of appreciation in early May, with the USD/JPY exchange rate having fallen by about 3% through May 2-3 (Chart 1). The moves spurred speculation that Japanese authorities had stepped in to support the yen following its prolonged spell of weakening this year. To infer possible episodes of currency market intervention, some market participants have turned to analyzing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) daily current account data for clues. Specifically, market participants looked at the BoJ’s daily net receipt of funds and contrasted them with broker-estimated figures to estimate possible currency intervention activity. Regardless, and despite its sporadic moves, the yen seems to have resumed its previous trend toward weakening. This has been fueled in part by the still-wide yield differentials between Japan and other major economies.