Introducing

Tian Yong Woon

Tian Yong joined Haver Analytics as an Economist in 2023. Previously, Tian Yong worked as an Economist with Deutsche Bank, covering Emerging Asian economies while also writing on thematic issues within the broader Asia region. Prior to his work with Deutsche Bank, he worked as an Economic Analyst with the International Monetary Fund, where he contributed to Article IV consultations with Singapore and Malaysia, and to the regular surveillance of financial stability issues in the Asia Pacific region.

Tian Yong holds a Master of Science in Quantitative Finance from the Singapore Management University, and a Bachelor of Science in Banking and Finance from the University of London.

Publications by Tian Yong Woon

Asia| May 07 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Chinese Ruminations
In this week's letter, we examine recent developments in China. We first take a pulse on the economy, with a nod to its consensus-beating real GDP performance in Q1. We note, however, some signs of weakening momentum, and, most notably, some disappointing industrial and retail sales readings seen for March. As such, it remains to be seen if the economy is conclusively out of the woods, especially when pockets of weakness remain. We analyze next some trends in China’s tourism space, which has seen a pickup in international air travel volumes, likely boding well for tourism-reliant economies in Asia. We then investigate export trends in the broader Asian region in relation to China. Here, we notice a mixed landscape: while some economies like Japan have reduced their export dependence on China, others, such as Vietnam, are seeking deeper economic integration. Lastly, we delve into shifts in cross-currency relationships, observing a decline in the correlation between yuan-yen and yuan-baht returns, among other notable trends.

We deduce from the recent developments that China’s recovery, whilst still underway, remains uneven and not yet set in stone. Nonetheless, China’s tourism sector continues to strengthen, initially in domestic travel and more recently in international trips. Moreover, beneath the interim recovery lies shifts in economic relationships with other Asian economies, relating to both export dependence and to currency moves.

China’s recent economic results China continues to be focal point for global investors, given its potential impacts on the world economy. The domestic economy posted better than expected real GDP results for Q1, with growth accelerating to 5.3% y/y during the period. The impulse came from net exports, which contributed to growth for the first time in six quarters. Looking at China’s March data, however, we saw rather disappointing results from its industrial and retail sector as growth rates slowed towards the end of the quarter (Chart 1). Hence, while China’s January and February figures offered some hope of economic stabilization, its more recent dataflow for March now raise concerns about weakening momentum.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Apr 08 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Of Dollars, Cars, and Chips
In this week's letter, we look at a few more macroeconomic themes relating to Asia. We first analyse recent Asian currency performance, noting the Japanese yen’s weakness and the Indian rupee’s relative resilience in the face of a strengthening US dollar. We then examine the explanatory power of yield differentials for the respective performance of these currencies. We find that while yield differentials explain about half of the currencies’ returns variability, much remained unaccounted for, particularly in the case of the yen.

We move next to study more localized issues within specific Asian economies. Starting with Japan, we discuss the recent slowdown in the growth of its monetary base and in its central bank’s government bond holdings in light of monetary policy moves. We also examine Japan’s latest Tankan survey results, which indicate diminished large manufacturer optimism, but elevated sentiment amongst large non-manufacturers. Moving to China, we take stock of developments in its electric vehicle market and investigate possible drivers of its recent sales slump, including seasonality and increased competition. Lastly, we explore South Korea’s latest exports numbers in the context of its broader relevance for global trade. We find that while headline export growth remains positive, underlying weakness exists when semiconductors – a major export component – is removed.

Asian FX performance The US dollar has been on the front foot lately, with its strength spurred in part by some unwinding of Fed rate cut expectations. The strengthening has come to the detriment of Asian currencies, which have weakened on average by 3.5% against the dollar so far this year (Chart 1). The extent of Asian currency depreciation against the dollar has been varied, however, with the Japanese yen having weakened the most, while the Indian rupee has displayed relative resilience.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Apr 02 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Current Affairs
In this week's letter, we explore recent developments in India, China, and advanced Asian economies. We observe ongoing disparities across Asian economies in their recent growth figures, but we also note a big uptick in their latest inflation readings. Economically, India remains on a solid footing heading into its general elections, while China is showing signs of stabilization following its latest official PMI prints. The divergence extends to advanced Asia’s industrial complex, with February readings indicating continued growth in South Korean production, while Taiwan’s and Japan’s contract for idiosyncratic reasons. Nonetheless, South Korea and Taiwan continue to experience an increased share in semiconductor-related goods production, reaping continued benefits from the upswing in chip demand.

Setting aside these divergences, we also examine recent financial market developments, with a specific focus on India. We note the interim rebound in small and mid-cap equities following recent steep selloffs. Additionally, we look into the Indian rupee, which has appreciated slightly against several currencies but weakened considerably against the US dollar.

Developments in India Elections are increasingly at the forefront of attention for India watchers, as the country gears up to head to the polls from April 19. The elections will be the largest in the world, involving about 960 million voters and spanning seven phases over 44 days. India’s current Prime Minister Modi seeks to secure a third term, with his political coalition poised to compete against one led by the Indian National Congress. Heading towards the polls, the Indian economy has benefited from a robust foundation and strong growth. India’s real GDP growth accelerated to 8.4% y/y in fiscal Q3 (October-December), far outpacing growth seen in several other emerging Asian economies. Nearly half of India’s growth over the period was driven by capital formation (Chart 1), which logged double-digit growth in fiscal Q2 and Q3. India’s rapid expansion in capital investment can be partly traced to the government’s push for more infrastructure and manufacturing investment.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Mar 25 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Rate Decisions
In this week's letter, we delve into the recent wave of rate decisions enacted by central banks across the region. We begin by examining the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest policy shifts, highlighting its significant move to terminate its negative interest rate policy. We then explore financial market responses to the BoJ’s decision, discussing possible drivers behind the subsequent weakness of the yen and declines in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. We move next to review interest rate developments in China, where loan prime rates (LPR) were left unchanged. We then shift our focus to the economies of Australia and New Zealand, where we examine the change in messaging by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and disappointing Q4 GDP results in New Zealand. Finally, we wrap up the week’s letter with a nod to interest rate decisions in Taiwan and Indonesia.

Recent events speak to the varied stages of monetary policy implemented by central banks in the region, given respective domestic considerations. China continues to pursue an easing approach with economic stabilization looking only nascent, whereas Japan has only recently initiated policy tightening due to encouraging wage growth. Australia and New Zealand, having seemingly completed their tightening cycles, now face increasing pressures to consider easing moves given recent weak economic readings, although with inflation a persisting concern.

Policy shifts by the Bank of Japan Recent headlines have shed light on some subtle yet significant aspects of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) departure from its negative interest rate policy. In a notable shift, the BoJ has now set its sights on targeting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to lie between 0% and 0.1% (chart 1). This objective will be accomplished by imposing an interest rate of 0.1% on the current account balances that financial institutions maintain with the bank, starting March 21. Previously, the BoJ aimed at a rate of -0.1% on financial institutions' Policy-Rate Balances. Governor Ueda highlighted that this move signifies the bank's return to a "normal" monetary policy that focuses on short-term interest rates, aligning with practices of other central banks. Additionally, the BoJ has terminated its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and announced the cessation of its purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). Furthermore, the bank intends to gradually conclude its buying of commercial paper and corporate bonds over the coming year.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Mar 18 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: (Chinese) New Year Resolutions
In this week's newsletter, we examine the key takeaways from the National People's Congress (NPC) in China. Initially, we highlight the government's economic objectives for the year ahead, including for a real GDP growth of "around" 5% and an inflation rate of "around" 3%. Following this, we examine potential obstacles that could impede China's achievement of these targets, including persisting drags from China’s property sector and still-subdued domestic inflation. We move next to take stock of China’s latest hard data, which revealed consensus-beating growth in the manufacturing and retail sectors. We note, however, that any interim stabilization is likely still in nascent stages. Subsequently, we analyze China's ambitions for its labour market, taking into account underlying trends of rural migration and broader demographic challenges. Finally, we investigate China's budgetary strategies for the year, focusing on the government's deficit targets with a nod to its plans for increased special bond issuance. While many would agree that China could do more with fiscal policy given persisting domestic woes, the extent of government debt growth will likely draw continued concerns.

Growth The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, unchanged from its goal for last year. The Chinese economy managed to log real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, having just barely exceeded its modest target while grappling with a slew of challenges (chart 1). Namely, China has faced, and continues to face headwinds from a struggling property sector, elevated local government debt levels, and fragile consumer confidence, among others. Also, recent official PMI data reveal a widening divergence between China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Specifically, the PMIs indicate ongoing, albeit mild, contractions in China’s manufacturing sector while the non-manufacturing sector has seen an accelerated pace of expansion.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Mar 11 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Japan Juxtapositions
In this week's newsletter, we revisit some pivotal themes related to Japan. We begin by assessing the country's recent inflation trends, specifically highlighting the latest CPI figures from Tokyo and their potential impact on nationwide inflation and monetary policy. Next, we examine Japan's current macroeconomic landscape, acknowledging the slowdown in retail sales and industrial production, alongside a worsening outlook suggested by recent PMI readings. However, we also recognize the significant growth in corporate capital expenditure in Q4 and investigate the potential consequences of this unexpected positive development on Japan's Q4 GDP. We move on to analyze the ongoing rally in Japan's equity market, underscored by earnings growth and robust investment from foreign investors. Shifting gears, we delve into the recent performance of Japan's semiconductor industry, which has experienced a surge in production and exports, fueled by the global demand for AI chips. Finally, we explore Japan's long-term demographic challenges, focusing on workforce trends and the increase in foreign workers.

Tokyo inflation Markets have continued to scan data prints and official comments for cues ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming monetary policy decision on March 19. Among the recent flurry of economic data was Tokyo’s core CPI, which jumped to 2.5% y/y in February, as base effects from Japan’s utility subsidy programme faded. The Japan government implemented support measures in early 2023 to help households tackle rising costs brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a weakening yen. Among the measures include subsidies of about 20% on consumer electricity bills. Stripping away energy-related price effects, however, underlying inflation in Tokyo continued to cool, having moderated to 3.1% from 3.3%. As such, it remains to be seen if Tokyo’s latest inflation developments, if reflected in nationwide inflation numbers, are supportive of imminent BoJ policy tightening. Of possible concern is non-fresh food and non-energy inflation, which has remained on a downward trajectory since late 2023.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Feb 19 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Matters at Hand
In this week's letter, we review some recent developments in Asia. Starting with Japan, we examine the implications of its underwhelming Q4 GDP result while noting the recent further weakening of the yen. Shifting next to China, we discuss its strong domestic tourism numbers during the Chinese New Year holidays and examine recent equity market movements. Next, we turn our attention to Indonesia’s recent general elections, noting the generally positive reactions observed in domestic markets so far. Lastly, we look at the Philippines, giving a nod to its latest interest rate decision and acknowledging the latest progress on disinflation.

Japan and the yen Japan encountered an unforeseen dip in its real GDP, with a decline of 0.1% q/q in Q4 2023. This marked the second consecutive quarter of contraction, signifying a technical recession. The downturn can be partially attributed to ongoing weaknesses in private consumption, though the negative impact was somewhat mitigated by net exports. Despite this, the economy still achieved an annual growth of 1%, although this was lower than the 1.7% growth observed in Q3. Japan’s disappointing Q4 performance, coupled with a much weaker yen, led to the economy’s displacement by Germany as the world’s third largest (chart 1). Previously, Japan’s economy was second only to the United States, until it was overtaken by China’s in 2010.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Feb 13 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Japan’s Journey
In this week's letter, we shift our focus to Japan, covering topics such as monetary policy, inflation, wages, the property market, and recent movements in asset prices. We first note recent investors’ views on the forthcoming actions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), taking into account recent communications and inflation trends. We then delve into inflation disparities within the regions of Japan. We next examine Japan’s residential property market, and acknowledge the recent acceleration in sales prices and rental rates. We then discuss developments relating to the upcoming spring wage negotiations, highlighting key announcements and commitments made so far. Finally, we examine the latest trends in Japanese equities and the yen, observing the ongoing rally in stocks amidst a renewed decline in the currency's value.

Monetary policy The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy settings unchanged in January, as widely expected. The central bank also revealed updated economic forecasts, indicating expectations of slightly firmer GDP growth and lower CPI inflation (excluding fresh food) for the fiscal year ahead. Perhaps more interestingly, the BoJ noted that the likelihood of realizing its price stability outlook has gradually risen. Some analysts interpreted the remarks as hints at imminent policy normalization, with a few now seeing BoJ rate hikes commencing from as early as March. Others, however, remain skeptical of substantive BoJ policy rate hikes soon, noting factors such as the lingering economic damage from Japan’s recent earthquakes. With that said, recent central bank messaging has lately hinted at possible tightening moves via the ending of risky asset purchases, but leaned against rapid interest rate hikes.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Feb 05 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: On Supply Chains
In this week's letter, we evaluate recent developments in Asia’ supply chains and trade. First, we analyze the consequences of ongoing disturbances in the Red Sea, observing a temporary reduction in freight and bunker fuel prices following their initial surges. Our discussion then turns to the potential effects of these developments on Asia, highlighting that supplier lead times have remained largely unaffected thus far. We further investigate the breakdown of geographical sources of imports for the region, pointing out that the predominance of intra-Asia trade could serve as a buffer against disruptions in sea routes elsewhere. We also expand our analysis to include a wider perspective on the semiconductor industry, recognizing Asia's contribution to the resurgence in global sales. Finally, we shed light on the varying growth rates of semiconductor exports among Asian countries.

Impacts of Red Sea disruptions so far The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a composite of dry bulk shipping costs, surged to historic highs during the initial waves of Houthi attacks in early December (chart 1). That said, the index quickly normalized after sentiment stabilized and as shipment re-routings were underway. In contrast, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), which captures shipping costs associated with eight major east-west routes, only surged in early January. The surge was driven by costs relating to routes that often require passage through the Red Sea (e.g., between Shanghai and western cities). Nonetheless, the WCI has already started to show signs of peaking, as prices moderated in early February.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Jan 29 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: The Big Guys
In this week’s letter, we examine China and India – the world’s two most populous economies. We first take stock of developments in monetary policy, noting China’s continued inclination toward more easing while India keeps policy tight to contain inflation. We also note, however, still weak credit demand in China despite recent easing moves, and strong loan growth in India despite recent tightening moves. We look next at equity market performance in these two economies, noting the divergence between investor pessimism about China and continued optimism regarding India. Next, we assess longer-term demographic issues, highlighting China’s challenges with a rapidly aging population, in stark contrast to India’s relative youth. We end this week’s discussion with a shift to the advanced Asian economies of Taiwan and South Korea, noting persistent manufacturing weakness in the former. And we give a nod to the significance of semiconductors in these economies’ exports, acknowledging, in particular, their recent rebound in South Korea.

Monetary policy in China and India The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 45 bps over 2022 and 2023 (chart 1) to support a struggling Chinese economy. The MLF rate cuts in turn dragged on the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR), which serve as reference rates in the credit market. More recently, the PBoC announced that it will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 50 bps, effective 5 February. The central bank’s governor said the move will unleash about 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion US dollars) of liquidity into China’s financial system. The PBoC has already enacted numerous RRR cuts in recent years, in a bid to boost growth by easing monetary and credit conditions. It remains to be seen, however, if the latest easing moves can alleviate the challenges China currently faces, given the structural roots of China’s economic problems.

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pursued policy tightening over recent years, having raised policy rates by 250 bps to combat inflation. As a result, India’s policy repo rate and marginal standing facility rate have been lifted to late-2018 levels, of 6.5% and 6.75% respectively. Also, the standing deposit facility rate was lifted to 6.25%. India, like many other emerging Asia economies, has experienced price pressures from food and energy costs, prompting the RBI to raise interest rates.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Jan 22 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Diving into ASEAN-5
In this week’s letter, we dive into some of the key themes relating to the ASEAN-5 region, including topics on inflation, monetary policy, tourism, trade, and global value chains. For clarity, we define ASEAN-5 economies to comprise Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. We note that while inflation has moderated in the region, developments at the country level have been uneven. We also take stock of recent monetary policy trends noting that the region’s central banks seem likely to hold policy rates steady until inflation cools further. Next, we examine tourism, acknowledging the absence of a strong recovery in Chinese tourist arrivals amidst persistent economic troubles at home. We next move to trade, noting the interim stabilization of the region’s exports and explore recent developments in the region’s trade relationship with China. Lastly, we take stock of the region’s standing in global value chains, by examining the value they add to their exports. Also included in the last segment is a nod to the slew of government initiatives aimed at catapulting their respective economies toward innovation and new technologies.

Inflation Headline CPI inflation has cooled significantly in ASEAN-5 economies over the past year on average (chart 1), as food and energy price pressures eased. Average headline ASEAN-5 inflation has fallen to 2.3% y/y in November 2023, from a peak of 6.2% in September 2022. Meanwhile, average core ASEAN-5 inflation moderated to 2.1%, after having peaked at 3.7% in January 2023. Delving deeper, however, we find that progress on disinflation has been uneven across the ASEAN-5 economies. For instance, headline inflation in the Philippines remained comparatively high at 4% in December 2023 despite having cooled from its peak of 8.7% in January 2023. In contrast, Thailand remained in deflation for a third straight month in December 2023, with prices having fallen 0.8% y/y for the period. Nonetheless, price pressures in ASEAN-5 as a whole are likely to be suppressed further if current monetary policy settings are maintained. With that said, inflation risks remain. For one, near-term supply-side bottlenecks induced by regional conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas) may exert external-led price pressures. Also, an eventual rebound in domestic demand in ASEAN-5 may add to domestic inflationary pressures.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief
Asia| Jan 15 2024
Economic Letter From Asia: Assessing Australia
In this week’s letter, we investigate the Australian economy, a major producer of various global commodities, including iron ore, copper, and lithium, among others. We start by looking at recent monetary policy developments in Australia, against a backdrop of still-high inflation. We next examine trends in Australia’s household sector, taking stock of slowing consumption growth and moderating debt levels. Closely tied to household debt is the property sector, which has started to see firmer prices again after a respite in early 2023. We then touch on Australia’s labour market, which remains tight but with persistent real wage losses due to high inflation. Lastly, we look at Australia’s trade, with a focus on China, a key trading partner. We note strong growth in Australia’s exports to China, aided in part by iron ore, amid slowing shipments to advanced Asian economies.

Monetary policy Australia has undergone significant monetary tightening in recent years to tackle inflation. Specifically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised its policy rate by a total of 425 bps since April 2022, 125 bps of which occurred in 2023 (chart 1). Headline CPI inflation has cooled significantly since, to 4.3% y/y in November 2023, from a peak of 8.4% in December 2022, as pressures from food and housing prices cooled. With that said, consumer inflation remains far from the RBA’s target of between 2% and 3%, making RBA rate cuts unlikely, at least in the immediate months ahead.
by:Tian Yong Woon
|in:Economy in Brief