Tom Moeller

241217n1.jpg

241217o1.jpg

The Housing Market Index, compiled by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo, was unchanged at 46 in December (+24.3% y/y). It remained below the break-even point of 50, where it’s been since May. The index remains below a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.

The rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.65% in the first two weeks of December versus 6.81% during all of November. It remained below the high of 7.79% in the last week of October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

The single-family sales measure held steady (+17.1% y/y) at 48 this month. It remained the highest reading since May. The prospective sales index in six months rose 4.8% (46.7% y/y) to 66 from 63 in November. It was the highest level since April 2022. The traffic of prospective buyers’ index eased 3.1% (+29.2% y/y) to 31 in December from 32 in November which had been the highest level since April.

Housing performance across the country was mixed in December. The Northeast index rose 8.8% (12.7% y/y) to 62 from 57. It was the highest level since June. In the South, the index rose 14.3% (23.1% y/y) to 48 in December from 42 in November. The index for the Midwest held steady with November (37.1% y/y) at 48. The index in the West declined 2.6% (+31.0% y/y) to 38 from 39 in November. The index hit a low of 28 in November of last year.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures	
 are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.
 
These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.


241217p1.jpg

241217q1.jpg

- Overall reading remains highest since April.
- Component measures are mixed.
- Regional indexes also vary.


U.S. Home Builders Index Holds Steady in December

241217v5.jpg

241217w5.jpg


Total retail sales increased 0.7% (3.8% y/y) during November after rising 0.5% in October, revised from 0.4%. September sales rose 0.9%, revised from 0.8% according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales improved 0.2% (3.2% y/y) last month following a 0.2% October rise, revised from 0.1%. The 1.0% September sales gain was unrevised. A 0.4% November increase was expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 2.6% (6.5% y/y) last month after increasing 1.8% in September. This compares to a 3.0% gain (7.6% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 0.8% October increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.4% during November (4.3% y/y) after easing an unrevised 0.1% in October. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.

Elsewhere, sales performance was mixed in November. Online retail sales jumped 1.8% (9.8% y/y) and rose to 21.8% of nonauto retail sales, up from 20.5% one year earlier and 11.2% ten years earlier. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales gained 0.9% (1.4% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.3% (1.2% y/y) after strengthening 2.4% in October. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y) following a 0.7% decline. Building materials & garden equipment store sales increased 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.8%. Gasoline service station sales improved 0.1% (-3.9% y/y), the same as in October, even though prices fell 1.7%.

Working lower, miscellaneous store sales, which account for roughly two percent of total sales, fell 3.5% in November (+0.8% y/y) after a 0.8% October decline. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) after rising 0.4%. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% last month (+3.1%y/y) after holding steady in October. Within that category, department store sale fell 0.6% (+1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% slip.

In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales were steady in November (+1.8%) after a 1.1% October fall. Food & beverage store sales were off 0.2% last month but rose 1.8% y/y.

Consumers’ interest in dining out diminished last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.4% (+1.9%) in November after seven consecutive monthly increases.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

241217x5.jpg

241217y5.jpg

- Year-to-year rise is largest in 2024.
- Motor vehicle sales stay strong.
- Growth in nonauto purchases reflects robust online sales.

U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen in November

241216j11.jpg

241216k11.jpg

The General Business Conditions Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York unexpectedly fell to 0.2 in December after surging to an unrevised 31.2 in November from -11.9 in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a retreat to 9.8. The percentage of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions declined to 25.8% from 40.9% in November while the percentage reporting a decrease jumped to 25.6% from 9.7%. The survey responses were collected between December 2 and December 9.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. The reading fell to 51.3 this month and reversed most of its November surge to 56.6. A level of 50 is the breakeven point between expansion and contraction. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

Declines in the new orders and shipments indexes led the component weakness in December. The new orders index fell to 6.1 after surging to 28.0, as a lessened 27.3% of respondents reported increases in orders and a higher 21.2% indicated declines. The shipments index declined to 9.4 after jumping to 32.5 from -2.7 in October, as a lessened 30.7% of respondents reported increases and an increased 21.2% indicated declines. Unfilled orders improved -8.4, its third consecutive negative reading, after falling to -10.3 in November. The inventories index surged to 10.5 after rising to 1.0 from -7.5 in October, indicating the strongest inventory accumulation in roughly two years. The delivery times index fell to -7.4 after surging to 3.1 in November, suggesting the shortest delivery times in five months.

Employment deteriorated sharply in December and the length of the workweek shortened substantially. The jobs index declined to -5.8 this month after falling to 0.9 from 4.1 in October. A lessened 7.9% of respondents reported an increase in employment while a higher 13.8% reported a decline. The average workweek index fell to -3.9, suggesting a decline in hours-worked from 6.1 in November. It was the weakest reading in four months.

Inflation indicators declined sharply in December. The prices paid index fell to 21.2 from 27.8, the weakest reading in twelve months. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported paying higher prices in December versus 27.8% in November while 3.2% reported paying lower prices, up from zero in November. The prices received index declined to 4.2, also the lowest since July 2023, from 12.4 in November. A lessened 11.6% received higher prices, the weakest reading in six months. 

Firms grew less grew less optimistic that business conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead. The future business activity index fell to the lowest level since August with 42% of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 54.8% in October. Growth in orders and employment is expected to slow. The expected price index fell sharply and capital spending plans weakened slightly.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.



241216l11.jpg

241216m11.jpg

- The headline index reverses most of last month’s gain.
- Component weakness is widespread including new orders, shipments & employment.
- Pricing power weakens.


U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines Sharply in December

241213F5.jpg

241213G5.jpg

The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) weakened 2.5% (+13.8% y/y) in October to 102.3 after rising 5.9% to 104.9 in September and 5.7% to 99.1 in August. The level of home affordability has risen 13.8% from its low of 89.9 in October 2023. It remains 42.9% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The decline in affordability in October reflected a 0.2% rise (4.1% y/y) in the median price of an existing single-family home to $412,200. This followed three straight monthly declines from the record $432,900 in June. In October, the average mortgage rate climbed to 6.51% from 6.26% in September. It remained below a 7.14% May high but up sharply from the December 2020 low of 2.73%. The increases raised the principal & interest payment by 2.8% (-7.7% y/y) to $2,086 per month. That was well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged 24.4% of income during October versus 23.8% in September. They remained up from a low of 14.0% in April 2020.

The rise in housing costs was accompanied by improvement in median family income. It increased 0.3% in October (5.1% y/y) to a record $102,425 after rising 0.3% in September and 0.2% in August.

Housing affordability declined across the country in October. The index fell 1.9% (+10.0% y/y) to 133.1 in the Midwest, remaining the most affordable region of the country to live. In the South, the index declined 2.7% (+17.7% y/y) to 106.3 and the affordability index in the Northeast fell 0.6% (+8.1% y/y) to 94.9. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index weakened 4.2% (+13.9% y/y) to 71.2 in October.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013; since then, it fell below 100 for the first time in June 2022 (98.8).

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

241213H5.jpg

241213I5.jpg

- Home prices edge higher & mortgage rates rise.
- Median income improves.
- Affordability falls throughout the country.


U.S. Housing Affordability Declines in October

241213j2.jpg

241213k2.jpg

Import prices increased 0.1% (1.3% y/y) during November after rising 0.1% in October, revised from 0.3%. A 0.4% September decline was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% decline. Export prices held steady (+0.8% y/y) after strengthening 1.0% in October, revised from 0.8%. Prices rose an unrevised 1.0% during September. A 0.2% weakening had been expected.

Import prices excluding fuels were unchanged (+2.3% y/y) in November, following a 0.2% rise in October. Import prices for fuels & lubricants jumped 1.0% (-8.5% y/y), following a 0.5% weakening. Prices for industrial supplies & materials overall rose 0.2% (0.4% y/y) after rising 0.5% in October. Foods, feeds & beverage prices strengthened 1.3% (5.4% y/y) last month after a 1.0% October decline. Motor vehicle & parts import prices eased 0.1% (+2.4% y/y) last month following a 0.2% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices inched up 0.1% (1.2% y/y) for the third consecutive month. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) and reversed the September rise. 

Export pricing was lackluster in November. Agricultural commodities eased 0.4% (-2.5% y/y) after a 1.9% October rise. Nonagricultural product prices edged up 0.1% (1.2% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Export prices of industrial supplies and materials eased 0.1% (+0.1% y/y) after rising 1.8% in the prior month. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady (+3.0% y/y) last month after increasing 0.6% in October. Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.1% (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.2% slip. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher in November (2.1% y/y) after a 0.3% rise in October.

Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.


241213l2.jpg

241213m2.jpg

- Import price gain is driven by oil & food.
- Weakness in export prices is broad-based.


U.S. Import Prices Edge Higher in November; Export Prices Are Unchanged

241212j12.jpg

241212k12.jpg

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% (3.0% y/y) during November after rising 0.3% in October, revised from 0.2%, and 0.2% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It was the largest increase since June. The reading compared to a 0.3% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services edged 0.1% higher (3.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% October rise and 0.1% September uptick. The PPI excluding food & energy rose 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after increasing an unrevised 0.3% in October.

Final demand food prices surged 3.1% (5.1% y/y) and accounted for 80% of the rise in last month’s PPI gain, according to the BLS. Egg prices strengthened 55.6% (80.2% y/y) while vegetable costs rose 33.2% (34.3% y/y). Fruit & melon prices surged 21.8% (11.0% y/y) while beef & veal prices rose 2.8% (6.7% y/y). Dairy product prices fell 1.0% (+5.6% y/y).

Energy prices increased 0.2% in November (-6.2% y/y) after a 0.1% October gain. Gasoline costs rose 0.4% (-9.3% y/y) while home heating oil prices jumped 6.1% (-19.5% y/y). Electric power prices rose 0.5% (0.8% y/y) and natural gas costs gained 0.9% (1.9% y/y). These gains were offset by a 2.1% drop (-20.6% y/y) in diesel fuel prices.    

Final demand goods prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% in November (2.2% y/y) for the sixth month in the last seven. Core finished consumer goods prices increased 0.3% (2.3% y/y) after rising 0.1%. The increase in core nondurable goods prices picked up to 0.4% last month (2.9% y/y) from 0.1% in October. Durable consumer goods prices improved 0.2% (1.4% y/y) after holding steady. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2% last month (2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% rise. Government-purchased goods prices edged 0.1% higher (2.1% y/y) after holding steady in October.

Final demand services prices rose 0.2% (3.9% y/y) in November, after increasing 0.3% in October. Trade services prices strengthened 0.8% (3.2% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Trade of finished goods prices increased 0.8% (3.0% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in October. Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.5% last month (+0.1% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. Services prices less these costs rose 0.1% in November (4.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in October.

Construction costs held steady (+1.6% y/y) during November after falling 0.2% in October.

Prices for intermediate demand of processed goods were unchanged (-0.5% y/y) last month after rising 0.6% in October. Processed energy goods prices fell 1.2% following a 1.6% jump, while food prices rose 0.9% after a 0.1% increase.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.


241212l12.jpg

241212m12.jpg

- Overall index rise driven by food prices.
- Advance in core goods prices is steady.
- Services price increases moderate.


U.S. PPI Strengthens in November; Core Price Gain Eases

241211L4.jpg

241211M4.jpg

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% during November, up from four consecutive months of 0.2% gain. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase picked up to 2.7% from 2.6% in October and was the quickest rise in four months. The three-month increase rose to 3.0% (AR) from 2.5% but remained below the 4.6% high in April of this year. Prices excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.3% for the fourth consecutive month. Core consumer prices increased 3.7% (AR) during the last three months, up from 1.6% in July, and 3.3% y/y. Food prices rose 0.4% last month (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% gain while energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) after holding steady in October.

The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power, rose 0.3% after a 0.2% gain. The 2.2% y/y rise was increased from a July low of 1.7% but remained below the 7.6% y/y peak in February 2022. It compared to a low of 0.3% y/y in May 2020.

Services costs less energy rose a steady 0.3% in November (4.6% y/y). Shelter costs rose 0.3% following a 0.4% rise in October. Its 4.7% y/y rise compares to an 8.2% peak in March 2023. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (4.9% y/y), following a 0.4% rise and was the weakest increase since April 2021. Rents of primary residences rose a similarly depressed 0.2% (4.4% y/y) after two consecutive months of 0.3% rise, but the cost of lodging away from home surged 3.2% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% October gain. Transportation service prices held steady last month (+7.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in October, as public transportation prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y) after a 2.4% October surge. Medical care service costs rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) the same as in October. Education & communication prices eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Recreation services prices rose 0.7% (3.5% y/y), the same as in October.

During November, the CPI for goods less food & energy increased 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) after holding steady in October. Home furnishings prices rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y), as appliance costs also rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y).  Apparel costs rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after a 1.5% decline. Education & communication product costs fell 1.1% (-5.4% y/y) the same as in October while medical care product prices declined 0.1% (NSA, +0.4% y/y) in November. Prices for recreation products weakened 0.5% (-1.5% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Transportation product prices rose 0.9% (-1.4% y/y) after improving 0.8%. New vehicle prices rose 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady while used car & truck prices strengthened 2.0% (-3.4% y/y) after a 2.7% rise.

Food prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in November following a 0.2% October increase. Egg prices rebounded 8.2% (37.5% y/y) after a 6.4% decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rebounded 1.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% while cereal & bakery product prices weakened 1.1% (-0.5% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.2% (1.1	% y/y) after increasing 0.4%, while dairy prices eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) after rising 1.0% in October. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 1.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% October rise.

Energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) in November after holding steady in October. Gasoline prices rose 0.6	% (-8.1% y/y) after three straight monthly declines. Amongst other energy products, fuel oil & propane prices rose 0.4% (-10.7% y/y) after declining 2.2%. Electricity prices eased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) after a 1.2% gain, while natural gas prices jumped 1.0% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.3% October gain.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

241211N4.jpg

241211O4.jpg

- Food prices pick up.
- Services price gains remain steady.
- Core goods prices pick up.

U.S. CPI Picks Up Modestly in November; Core Prices Rise Steadily

241211F12.jpg

241211G12.jpg

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $624.2 billion budget deficit for the first two months of FY 2025 after a $380.6 billion deficit for the first two months of FY’24. For November alone, the government ran a budget deficit of $366.8 billion, which compared to a deficit of $314.0 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $356.5 billion deficit in November.

Overall revenues this fiscal year so far declined 7.3% y/y as individual income tax receipts fell 11.6% y/y. The level of corporate tax receipts nearly halved y/y. Social insurance revenues increased 7.4% y/y and excise taxes increased 34.0% y/y in FY’25. Customs duties rose 6.1% y/y in the first two months of FY’15.

Federal government outlays increased 18.3% y/y in early FY’25 after a 16.7% rise early in FY’24. Defense spending rose 13.7% y/y, as it did early in FY’24. Social Security outlays rose 6.9% y/y after rising 12.0% y/y in FY’24. Interest payments rose 8.0% y/y in FY’25 after a 63.7% rise a year earlier. Health program spending rose 12.0% y/y after holding steady early in FY’24 while Medicare payments doubled y/y. Income security outlays rose 31.8% y/y compared to a 15.1% y/y decline in the first two months of FY’24.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.


241211H12.jpg

241211I12.jpg

- Personal income tax receipts weaken.
- Corporate tax payments roughly halve y/y.
- Social Security spending fuels outlay growth.

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens So Far in FY 2025

241210N1.jpg

241210O1.jpg

U.S. nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) increased an unrevised 2.2% (SAAR) during Q3’24 after a 2.1% rise in Q2 and a 0.7% Q1 gain. The figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Survey. The 2.0% y/y increase remained below its 2.7% gain in 2023 (Q4/Q4) but was improved from a 1.4% decline in 2022. It also was greatly improved versus the 1.2% average between 2009 and 2019. Nonfarm business output increased 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 3.0% gain, revised from 3.5%, while hours-worked rose 1.2% (0.7% y/y) after increasing 0.9%.

Compensation growth slowed to 3.1% (4.3% y/y), revised from 4.2%, after a slightly revised 4.8% gain. As a result, unit labor costs grew 0.8% (2.2% y/y) last quarter, revised from 1.9% after a 1.1% decline, revised from a 2.4% increase. The Action Economics survey expected unit labor costs to rise 1.6% last quarter.

In the manufacturing sector, productivity in Q3 improved 0.9% (0.6% (y/y), revised from 1.0%, after rising a minimally changed 0.2% in Q2 and falling 0.7% in Q1. Compensation grew 2.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 6.4%, following a 5.6% decline in Q2, revised from a 6.2% rise. Unit labor costs rose 1.7% (1.8% y/y), revised from 5.3%, after a 5.8% fall, revised from a 5.8% increase.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

241210P1.jpg

241210Q1.jpg

- Annual increase remains below last year’s gain.
- Compensation growth dips.
- Increase in unit labor costs slows.

U.S. Productivity Growth Is Steady & Unrevised in Q3’24

241210C11.jpg

241210D11.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades fell to $3.13 per gallon (-3.9% y/y) in the week ended December 2nd from $3.16 per gallon in the prior week. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ended April 22, and its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ended June 11, 2022. The latest measure of on-highway diesel fuel prices was $3.46 per gallon (-13.3% y/y) versus $3.54 per gallon in the prior week. Diesel prices have ranged between $2.37 per gallon in the week ended November 2, 2020 and $5.81 in the week of June 20, 2022.

Crude oil prices eased	 to an average $68.42 per barrel (-3.4% y/y) in the week ended December 6 and reversed most of the prior week’s increase to $69.61 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate prices have fallen from a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. Yesterday, the price was $69.39 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil stood at $72.31 per barrel last week (-4.9% y/y) versus $72.26 in the week prior. Yesterday’s price was $74.32 per barrel.

Natural gas prices fell to $2.90 per mmbtu last week (-10.7% y/y) from $3.19 in the prior week. Prices were below a $2.73 high in the second week of June. The price was $2.10 per mmbtu yesterday.

Gasoline demand rose 2.8% y/y in the four weeks ended November 29, after holding steady y/y in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products increased 4.0% y/y in the four weeks ended November 29 after a 1.0% y/y increase in the prior four weeks. Crude oil input to refineries rose 4.5% y/y in the four-week period ended November 29 after a 5.2% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 4.0% y/y in the week ended November 29 after decreasing 2.7% y/y in the week prior. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 12.0% in the week of November 29 after declining 11.0% y/y in the prior week. In contrast, crude oil inventories grew 2.3% y/y in the latest week following a 2.2% y/y increase during the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 24.5 days in the week ended November 29 from 24.2 days in the prior week. Crude oil inventories slipped to 25.7 days’ supply in the week of November 29 from 26.2 days in the prior week. These compare to a low of 24.8 days in the week ended September 20, 2024 and a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices weaken; crude oil prices decline and natural gas prices fall sharply.
- Demand for gasoline increases moderately.
- Inventories of gasoline fall, but crude oil inventories rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Decline in Latest Week

241209L1.jpg

241209M1.jpg

Wholesale trade inventories increased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) during October after an unrevised 0.2% September decline and a 0.2% August rise. The increase compared to a 0.2% rise expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey and compared to no change in the advance report issued two weeks ago.

Durable goods inventories rose 0.1% in October (2.0% y/y) after falling 0.6% in September. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) while motor vehicles & parts, the second largest grouping, edged 0.1% lower (+6.0% y/y). Furniture inventories rose 2.7% (2.4% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories declined 1.0% (-3.3% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Petroleum inventories fell 2.5% (-15.7% y/y). Drug inventories, which make up one-quarter of nondurable inventories, advanced 1.1% (7.9% y/y). Grocery inventories, the second largest category, rose 1.6% (2.5% y/y). Apparel inventories rose 0.3% (-11.3% y/y) and chemical inventories eased 0.2% (-3.8% y/y).

Sales at the wholesale level slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) in October after rising 0.5% in September and falling 0.2% in August. A 0.2% October rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales held steady in October (4.5% y/y) after rising 0.6% in September. Sales of electrical equipment & electronic goods, the largest sector, rose 1.9% (13.7% y/y), after a 0.4% gain. Professional and commercial equipment sales, which includes computers, declined 2.8% (+5.1% y/y), while vehicle sales improved 0.4% (5.9% y/y). Sales of machinery edged 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y). Nondurable product sales weakened 0.3% (-2.2% y/y) after rising 0.4% in September. Petroleum product sales tumbled fell 0.6% (-14.8% y/y). Drug store sales, the largest category, weakened 1.1% (+5.4% y/y), while grocery store sales gained 0.9% (4.7% y/y). Sales of apparel weakened 2.6% (+4.0% y/y). Paper sales fell 0.5% (-1.2% y/y).

The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level held steady at 1.34 in October but has been moving lower for the last year.

The wholesale I/S ratio for durable goods edged up to 1.76 but also has been trending lower. The machinery ratio declined to 3.01 while motor vehicles eased to 1.81. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods held at 0.95 but remained down from 1.04 early last year. The petroleum industry I/S ratio eased to 0.31, and the drug industry ratio moved up to 1.00. Apparel's I/S ratio of 2.10 remained below its 2.46 level one year earlier.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

241209N1.jpg

241209O1.jpg

- Inventories trend higher y/y.
- Sales edge lower m/m, but trend is up.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio moves lower.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Modestly in October but Sales Ease

241209R12.jpg

241209S12.jpg

Consumer credit outstanding increased $19.2 billion (2.3% y/y) during October after rising $3.2 in September, revised from $6.0 billion and $4.6 billion in August, revised from $7.6 billion. A $10.0 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income was little changed at 23.4% in October, a ratio that has drifted lower the last two years.

Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, jumped $15.7 billion in October (5.7% y/y) following a $1.6 billion September increase and a $1.8 billion August fall. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 6.4% y/y, down from a high of 17.0% y/y growth in August 2022. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 11.7% y/y while revolving credit held by credit unions rose a diminished 5.3% y/y in October.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding increased $3.5 billion (1.0% y/y) in October after increasing $1.6 billion in September and $6.4 billion in August. Nonrevolving credit held by banks fell 1.8% y/y, down from a +11.0% y/y high in April 2022, while finance company nonrevolving credit rose 2.7% y/y, less than half the increase early this year. Credit union nonrevolving balances declined 2.2% y/y in October, off from 20.3% y/y growth in January 2023. Federal government balances surged 3.5% y/y to $1.51 trillion in October.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

241209T12.jpg

241209U12.jpg

- Revolving credit strength leads upturn.
- Nonrevolving credit usage improves.

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Picks Up in October

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.
