- Employment increase is strong in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” and “job changers” moderates.
- Small business employment recovers; hiring at medium-sized firms slows.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
USA| Apr 02 2025U.S. ADP Payroll Gain Rebounds in March; Pay Growth Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Apr 01 2025U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Surge in March
The light vehicle market continued to improve last month, with sales rising to the highest level in four years. U.S. light vehicle sales rose 10.4% (11.8% y/y) to 17.76 million units (SAAR) in March after rising 3.8% to 16.09 million in February. The rise in March vehicle sales accompanied a 1.8% y/y rise in real disposable income through February, which compared to 2.0% growth in 2024.
Sales improvement was broad-based last month. Light truck sales rose 12.1% (13.2% y/y) during March to 14.46 million units (SAAR), after increasing 3.3% in February. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks surged 12.4% (13.1% y/y) to 11.05 million units, after rising 3.3% in February. Sales of imported light trucks jumped 10.7% (13.0% y/y) to 3.40 million units, following February’s 3.4% rise.
Trucks’ 81.4% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 80.2% in February and set a new record. The share was 80.3% during all of 2024 and 53.3% ten years earlier.
Auto sales also rose last month, by 3.8% (8.2% y/y) to 3.31 million units (SAAR) following a 6.0% February increase. Sales of cars moved to the highest level since July 2021. Purchases of domestically-produced cars rose 3.4% (12.3% y/y) last month to 2.46 million units, after rising 9.2% in February. Sales of imported autos gained 4.9% (-7.6% y/y) to 0.85 million units, following a 2.4% February decrease.
Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market eased to 23.9% in March from 24.1% in February. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% before it reached a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 25.7% last month from 25.4% in February. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.5% in March after holding at 23.8% in February.
U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the INDUSTRY database.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Index indicates factory sector contraction.
- New orders, production & employment readings weaken.
- Prices index jumps to another three-year high.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Apr 01 2025U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise Further Last Week
- Gasoline costs continue to move up from December low.
- Crude oil prices rise to four-week high.
- Natural gas costs ease.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- General business activity index falls to 10-month low.
- New orders growth & labor market readings remain negative.
- Production & shipments improve.
- Future business index turns decisively negative.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Monthly core price gain is strongest since January 2024; annual rise edges up.
- Real spending rose last month after sharp decline.
- Disposable income surges and savings rate strengthens.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Mar 27 2025U.S. Pending Home Sales Increase in February
- Sales edge up from record low.
- Pattern of home sales is mixed across country.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Inventory drag on economic growth remains largest in almost two years; net exports add negligibly to growth.
- Sharp gain in consumer spending growth is revised down slightly, while the decline in business investment is lessened.
- Price index gain is revised down slightly.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Mar 26 2025U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise in February
- Increase exceeds expectations.
- Electrical equipment & appliance orders post firm increase.
- Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Confidence weakens to lowest level since January 2021.
- Expectations reading plummets to twelve-year low; present situation reading weakens.
- Inflation and interest rate expectations rise further.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Mar 25 2025U.S. Gasoline Prices Strengthen Last Week
- Gasoline costs rise.
- Crude oil prices move higher.
- Natural gas costs stabilize.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Mar 24 2025Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounds in February
- Index recovers January’s decline.
- Three-month average surges.
- Half of components rise.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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