- November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 8.0 pts. to 101.7.
- Uncertainty Index down 12 pts. to a three-month-low 98.
- Expectations for economy up 41 pts. to 36%, the highest since June ’20.
- Expected real sales up 18 pts. to 14%, the highest since February ’20.
- Inflation (20%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%); both slightly down from October.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Dec 10 2024U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Jumps in November; Highest Level Since June ’21
USA| Dec 04 2024U.S. ISM Services PMI Drops in November, Still Indicating Expansion for the Fifth Straight Month
- 52.1 in Nov., a 3.9-pt. drop from Oct. & lower than expected; marginally below the 12-month avg. of 52.2.
- Business Activity (53.7, the 53rd expansion in 54 mths.), New Orders (53.7, the 52nd expansion in 54 mths.), Employment (51.5, the 4th expansion in 5 mths.), and Supplier Deliveries (49.5 vs. 56.4).
- Prices Index increases to 58.2 after October’s 1.3-pt. drop to 58.1.
- October construction spending +0.4% m/m; +5.0% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’23.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 2.7% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since July.
- Public sector construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
USA| Nov 27 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to $99.08 Billion in October
- Smaller-than-expected goods trade deficit after September’s largest shortfall since March ’22.
- Exports decline 3.2%, the third m/m decrease in four months.
- Imports drop 5.4%, the second m/m fall in three months.
- October sales -17.3% m/m (-9.4% y/y) to 610,000, the second m/m drop in three mths.; Sept. level number unrevised at 738,000.
- Sales down m/m and y/y in the South and West but up m/m and y/y in the Northeast and Midwest.
- Median sales price rises to $437,300, the highest since August ’23; average sales price jumps to a record-high $545,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale rises to 9.5 months, a two-year high.
- $84.36 bil. trade deficit (reflecting $108.99 bil. goods deficit & $24.63 bil. services surplus).
- Exports drop 1.2% after three straight m/m rises, while imports rebound 3.0%, up for the third month in four.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $100.13 bil., the biggest since March ’22.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China and Japan rise; trade shortfall w/ EU widens to a record high.
- September construction spending +0.1% m/m (+4.6% y/y); August and July revised up.
- Residential private construction +0.2% m/m, led by a 0.4% rebound in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.1% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction +0.5% m/m, reflecting m/m rises in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
USA| Oct 29 2024U.S. FHFA House Prices Continue to Rise Modestly in August
- August FHFA HPI +0.3% (+4.2% y/y, lowest since June ’23); July and June revised up.
- House prices rise m/m in seven of nine census divisions but ease in East North Central (-0.1%) and New England (-0.1%).
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in East North Central (6.3%).
USA| Oct 24 2024Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Less Negative in October
- October Composite Index at -4 reflects negative readings in materials inventories (-10), new orders (-5) and employment (-2), while production (0) rebounds from September’s negative level (-18).
- Price indexes rise, w/ prices paid (19) up to a 5-month high and prices received (11) up to a 17-month high.
- Expectations for future activity remain positive.
USA| Oct 17 2024U.S. Industrial Production Drops in September, w/ Boeing Strike and Hurricanes Affecting Output
- September IP -0.3% m/m (-0.6% y/y); August gain revised down.
- Mfg. IP declines 0.4% m/m, w/ durable goods down 1.0% and nondurable goods up 0.2%.
- Mining activity drops 0.6% m/m, but utilities output rebounds 0.7% vs. two straight m/m falls.
- Key categories in market groups mostly decrease.
- Capacity utilization down 0.3%-pts. to 77.5%.
USA| Oct 08 2024U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds in September
- September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 0.3 pts. to 91.5.
- Uncertainty Index up 11 pts. to record high.
- Business conditions in the next six months up slightly but still in negative territory (-12%).
- Expected real sales up 9 pts. to -9%, still indicating pessimism.
- Inflation (23%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (17%).
- 54.9 in September vs. 51.5 in August, higher than expected; 3.1 pts. above the 12-month avg. of 51.8.
- Business Activity (59.9, a four-month high), New Orders (59.4, the highest since Feb. ’23), Employment (48.1, the first contraction since June), and Supplier Deliveries (52.1 vs. 49.6).
- Prices Index rises 2.1 pts. to 59.4, the highest since January.
- of19Go to 1 page