- December total retail sales +0.4% (+3.9% y/y), w/ m/m rises in most categories.
- Ex-auto sales +0.4% (+2.9% y/y); auto sales +0.7% (+8.4% y/y).
- Rebounds in miscellaneous store sales (+4.3%) and sporting goods store sales (+2.6%).
- Drops in building materials & garden equipt. store sales (-2.0%) and restaurant & drinking place sales (-0.3%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- USA| Jan 16 2025
U.S. Retail Sales Rise for the Fourth Straight Month in December
- USA| Jan 14 2025
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises Again in December; Highest Level Since October 2018
- December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 3.4 pts. to 105.1.
- Uncertainty Index down 12 pts. to a six-month-low 86.
- Expectations for economy up 16 pts. to 52%, the highest since March 2002.
- Expected real sales up 8 pts. to 22%, the highest since January 2020.
- Inflation (20%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%); both unchanged from November.
- Gasoline prices highest since the November 25 week.
- Crude oil costs highest since the October 11 week.
- Natural gas prices highest since the week of January 12, 2024.
- Gasoline demand rises; gasoline inventories decline, but crude oil inventories increase.
- Manufacturers’ new orders -0.4% (-1.9% y/y) in Nov. vs. +0.5% (+2.1% y/y) in Oct.
- Durable goods orders (-1.2%) fall m/m, while nondurable goods orders (+0.4%) and shipments (+0.1%) increase m/m.
- Unfilled orders rise 0.3%, the fifth straight m/m increase.
- Inventories rebound 0.3%, the first m/m rise since August.
- Light truck sales highest since Apr. ’21; imported light truck sales at a record high.
- Auto sales highest since Apr. ’23.
- Domestic & import sales both increase.
- Imports' market share rebounds to 24.7%, the highest since Nov. ’23.
- FHFA HPI +0.4% (+4.5% y/y) in October vs. +0.7% (+4.5% y/y) in September.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down for the first time since June in Pacific (-0.4%), Mountain (-0.1%), and West North Central (-0.1%).
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.0%).
- PHSI +2.2% (+6.9% y/y) in November vs. +1.8% (+5.3% y/y) in October.
- Home sales up m/m in the South (5.2%), West (0.5%) and Midwest (0.4%) but down m/m in the Northeast (-1.3%).
- Home sales up y/y in all four regions, w/ the highest y/y rate in the West (11.8%).
- USA| Dec 27 2024
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens to $102.86 Billion in November
- Larger-than-expected goods trade deficit after October’s narrowing.
- Exports rise 4.4%, the first m/m gain since August.
- Imports rebound 4.5%, the second m/m increase in three months.
- November sales +5.9% (+8.7% y/y) to 664,000 vs. -14.8% (-6.8% y/y) to 627,000 in October.
- Sales up m/m and y/y in the Midwest and South but down m/m and y/y in the Northeast and West.
- Median sales price drops to $402,600, the lowest since Feb. ’22; avg. sales price falls to a 3-month-low $484,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale drops to 8.9 mths. from October’s 2-year high.
- USA| Dec 10 2024
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Jumps in November; Highest Level Since June ’21
- November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 8.0 pts. to 101.7.
- Uncertainty Index down 12 pts. to a three-month-low 98.
- Expectations for economy up 41 pts. to 36%, the highest since June ’20.
- Expected real sales up 18 pts. to 14%, the highest since February ’20.
- Inflation (20%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%); both slightly down from October.
- USA| Dec 04 2024
U.S. ISM Services PMI Drops in November, Still Indicating Expansion for the Fifth Straight Month
- 52.1 in Nov., a 3.9-pt. drop from Oct. & lower than expected; marginally below the 12-month avg. of 52.2.
- Business Activity (53.7, the 53rd expansion in 54 mths.), New Orders (53.7, the 52nd expansion in 54 mths.), Employment (51.5, the 4th expansion in 5 mths.), and Supplier Deliveries (49.5 vs. 56.4).
- Prices Index increases to 58.2 after October’s 1.3-pt. drop to 58.1.
- October construction spending +0.4% m/m; +5.0% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’23.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 2.7% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since July.
- Public sector construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
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